The key vote is imminent, how exactly does the UK "get out"?

More than 2 years ago, when British Prime Minister Theresa May stepped on her beloved high heels and first entered 10 Downing Street, it is estimated that she did not expect that the shoes would accompany her on a "Brexit road" with her incomparable feet and bottomless length. On the 15th, with the "Iron Lady" "Brexit" agreement put into the British Parliament vote, she once again stood on the edge of the dangerous cliff, and the British "Brexit" process was once again at a treacherous crossroads.

There is nowhere to be found to step on the iron shoes

Seeing that there are only two months left before the official Brexit on March 29 this year, the British Parliament has never let go of the "Brexit" agreement reached by the UK and the EU in November last year, May's heart is really a bit stuffy. Flipping through the British newspapers for the past two days, the headlines are the same almost every day - May shouted into parliament, sometimes warning that the UK will be pushed into "uncharted territory", sometimes referring to "catastrophic harm", and just one day, her latest conclusion on the "Brexit" deadlock became: "MPs block Brexit as a more likely outcome." ”

Why did "Brexit" evolve into "procrastination"? In short, "Aunt Mei" suffered from the dilemma of "double-sided tape". On the one hand, opposition in the UK feels that she has made too many concessions to the EU, leading to divisions within the ruling Conservative Party, between the Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party, and between the Conservative Party and its political ally Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party. On the other hand, the European Union also refused to relax on the UK's continued asking price, and European Commission President Juncker and May even quarreled in front of the camera, using a sentence of "I don't know what to do" to ruthlessly block Mei's soft and hard bubbles.

Last year, after running through Brussels several times in her shoes, May finally won the EU's nod on Nov. 25 with a 585-page draft Brexit deal. But the bitterness of the effort is known only to her – she has had to appeal to Spain on gibraltar, had to pay a "break-up fee" of around £39 billion, had to promise to avoid setting up a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and Ireland...

However, Mei's "stepping on the iron shoe" did not win domestic applause. Opposition forces argue that she has made too many compromises with the EU: Labour Leader Corbyn labeled the deal "the worst in the world", arguing that it has no say in the rules that will continue to apply and does not provide certainty for the future. Conservative colleagues also disagreed with May, arguing that European judges would continue to "dictate" British law.

Worse still, the Northern Ireland "guarantee package" in the agreement directly offended the Conservative Party's ruling ally, the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party. Since the British side failed to propose a specific plan to avoid the re-establishment of physical customs and border inspection facilities between the Northern Ireland region and Ireland, a member state of the European Union, the EU proposed a "guarantee plan", that is, after the official "Brexit" of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland temporarily remained in the European single market and customs union, following eu rules until the British side proposed a "better" plan. In this way, doesn't "Brexit" become a "fake Brexit"? This is unacceptable.

As a result, more than 200 MPs from labour, 10 MPs from northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, and more than 100 MPs from the Conservative Party have come out in unison to challenge May, refusing to give the "green light" to the Brexit deal during the parliamentary vote scheduled for December last year. Seeing that there was no hope of passing the agreement, Mei had to resort to the "dragging trick" and dragging the "hard bones" until January 15 this year.

"Coward's Game"

Where does the fate of the agreement go? The BBC lists several prospects.

The best-case scenario, of course, is that the agreement is approved. While opposition to the deal in Parliament remains loud, May hopes to make some sort of breakthrough from the EU and pull her ruling partner, northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, to her side. In addition, if a few more votes can be drawn from the opposition parties to offset the vacuum left by the "betrayal" of the "hard Brexiteers" in the Conservative Party, the agreement will be passed.

Analysts believe that the Irish border issue, while complex, is not completely insoluble. As the negotiations enter the countdown, a "coward's game" is still being played between the UK and the EU to see who will give in first at the last minute. The two sides are still trying to avoid a "no-deal Brexit" situation.

British public opinion pointed out that May's "Brexit" agreement may not be the best choice in the eyes of many people, but it is indeed the "least bad" choice. The agreement, if passed, would provide certainty for Brexit. With the implementation of the "break-up fee" and transition period stipulated in the agreement, it will shape the UK-EU relationship in the "post-Brexit era".

3 days to force out "Plan B"?

However, many observers believe that even if it is delayed for more than a month, from the current indications, the opposition to the agreement in the British parliament has not diminished, and its hope of breaking through the parliament is still slim. If the agreement fails to pass, it will bring the following four possibilities.

First, reopen negotiations until a new "Brexit" agreement is reached, achieving a "brexit with an agreement". This is by no means a matter of fine-tuning and a second vote, but rather of pushing back the march 29 Brexit limit. The UK had to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to apply to the EU for an extension to change the definition of "exit date" in the Withdrawal Act.

But as far as the EU is concerned, whether it can accede to Britain's extension request is a question mark. The EU has previously made harsh remarks that it will not renegotiate with the UK on a "Brexit" agreement, including the "backup arrangement".

For Mei, reopening the negotiations seems to have bought her time, but it is actually a lot of pressure. According to the previous "Brexit" agreement, May had 21 days to come up with "Plan B", but not long ago the "Grave Amendment" (once the "Brexit" agreement was rejected in the lower house of parliament, May must hand over "Plan B", that is, the alternative plan, by 21 days in parliament, after passing), leaving May with only 3 parliamentary working days to come up with a "backup arrangement".

The analysis believes that the practice of "rectification within a time limit" reflects the tense game between British parties. Previously, the May government used time pressure to force Parliament to choose between "a deal Brexit" and a "no-deal Brexit", forcing it to bear the risk of causing the consequences of a "no-deal Brexit" in the UK. However, the British parliamentarians who are well versed in this way struck back, using a sharply compressed time limit to form a containment of Mei, and fiercely "put" Mei Yi "army".

Ye Jiang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and vice president of the Shanghai European Society, told the Liberation Daily Shangguan News reporter that at present, EU officials have a set of "60 votes" theory out of their mouths - if the British parliament rejects the agreement with a gap of more than 60 votes, it can almost declare that the agreement is dead, and the EU will not have to make concessions to the UK; if it is vetoed with less gaps, the EU may consider whether there is another compromise method so that the "b plan" will come to fruition. It is conceivable that the EU will keep a close eye on the voting results and adjust the game situation with the UNITED Kingdom.

The risk of a "no-deal Brexit"

The second possibility that the agreement was triggered by resistance in parliament is that May will hold an early general election to break the deadlock. But the move would require the consent of two-thirds of the members of Parliament. After the parliamentary process, a general election will be held after the earliest 25 working days. Since the dust has settled, the march 29 deadline is not far away, so the offer is still based on the premise of applying to the EU for an extension of Brexit.

A third possibility would put May in a more passive position: an opposition vote of no confidence in the government that led to May's ouster. Labour leader Corbyn said a motion of no confidence in the government would be filed in the lower house of parliament when "the odds are in place". The "Brexit" agreement was rejected in Parliament at a time when the prime minister was at its weakest and the opposition parties "had the odds in hand".

If May's government fails to win a vote of confidence within 14 days, it will hold an early general election. Election dates are as early as 25 working days after which a new prime minister, a new Conservative government and its ruling coalition could emerge. Conversely, if Mei wins, she will "continue her performance" on the way out of the EU.

Looking at the situation, although more than 100 MPs in the Conservative Party oppose May's "Brexit" agreement, they do not want parliament to be dissolved and cause political turmoil, giving the opposition parties an opportunity to take advantage of it. In June 2017, Mei suffered from the "failure of high-roller gambling" in the early general election. Therefore, the outside world predicts that Mei will be more cautious.

Foreign media judge that if Mei's "b plan" is still not close, or there is an early election, Mei is out of the game, etc., then it is very likely to lead to a "no-deal Brexit" and make the previous negotiations in vain.

The so-called "no-deal Brexit" means that there is no transition period after "Brexit", EU laws will not apply to the UK, the trade relationship between the two sides will return to the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and will also face the problem of increasing tariff levels and trade barriers between each other. This is tantamount to a "lose-lose" for the UK and the EU. According to the Bank of England's forecast last November, a "no-deal Brexit" would cause the pound to plummet, with the market value of house prices falling below one-third and the economy shrinking by 8%, and the forward negative impact should not be underestimated.

It would also hurt the UK and EU economies. Ratings agency Moody's noted: "The most immediate impact is the sharp fall in the pound, which led to a surge in inflation in the short term and a decline in real incomes in the two or three years after Brexit." This in turn will affect consumer spending, dampen growth, and the UK economy could be at risk of recession. ”

Fortunately, the British Parliament has shown a clear opposition to a "no-deal Brexit" tendency. The House of Commons even voted to pass an amendment to the Fiscal Act, stipulating that any amendments and changes to the UK's fiscal law and tax code provisions in the event of a "no-deal Brexit" must be approved by Parliament. This means that by tightening fiscal power, Parliament has cut off the government's broad fiscal back road for a "no-deal Brexit".

Charles Grant, director of the European Reform Centre at the research institute, said it is likely that there will be no dawn of a solution to the problem until March, "but with the final date approaching, due to the possibility of an early general election and a second referendum, the British parliament does not want to 'leave the EU without a deal', May's agreement may usher in an opportunity." ”

Outline of desolate land

Fourth, a second referendum is also a possibility. After the 2016 "Brexit" referendum results were announced, the voice of the "second referendum" in the United Kingdom has been continuous, and the EU has taken the opportunity to hand over an olive branch, and in early December last year, the European Court of Justice ruled that the United Kingdom can unilaterally cancel the "Brexit" without the consent of other EU member states.

However, May has repeatedly said that she will not hold another "Brexit" referendum, believing that the "second referendum" is a "serious betrayal" of British democracy. Oxford Research believes that the probability of a second referendum is low, only 5%.

The analysis believes that the "second 'Brexit' referendum" will further deepen the "division" of the United Kingdom, which may trigger the "democratic dilemma" of "three referendums" and "four referendums".

BBC believes that, in addition to the possibilities listed above, other political events may occur with unexpected results. For example, if mPs pass a "no-confidence proposal" (as distinct from a no-confidence vote), May may face resignation pressure. However, whether it is a change of prime minister or a change of government, the final holders of power will face the same dilemma, deciding between several basic "Brexit" options.

"The country remains in a state of anger and deep division. In the first two weeks of 2019, the outlines of this desolate land, which Mei called 'uncharted territory', have already emerged. The Financial Times said. Now it's up to Mei how to step forward and how to move forward.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Visual China Picture Editor: Zi Xi