#美财政部长耶伦谈美国通胀情况 #
Towards the end of 2021, international commodity prices continue to rise under the support of international crude oil prices, resulting in global hyperinflation still continuing, and the current ten-year inflation forecast in the United States has created a new high in nearly 10 years, far exceeding the may of this year when inflation expectations should have peaked.
Even the Fed and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen have to admit that such inflation is tricky and likely not to be resolved quickly.
So how serious is hyperinflation this time, and what kind of impact will it have? How long will it take to get a solution?
In fact, inflation is not a flood beast, but an inevitable result of economic growth, but also the driving force of economic growth, when benign inflation appears, it will prompt producers to increase investment, thus bringing about a comprehensive growth momentum of the economy.
After World War II, there was sustained double-digit inflation in the United States, but this did not bring about a serious economic deterioration or recession, because the economic growth rate of the United States at that time was very impressive, coupled with the expansion of science and technology and population, so that inflation was completely digested. A similar situation also appeared in the early stage of China's reform and opening up, which used to be very fast through expansion, but it was also digested by economic growth.
That is to say, if inflation is really caused by the shortage of supply and demand in economic growth, then there is really no need to worry too much.
As we all know, during this crisis, the Fed and the European Central Bank worked together to put more than $3,000 billion in liquidity into the market, which flooded the market and caused all prices to soar, which is what we call liquidity inflation.
Of course, having financial support does not necessarily bring about a surge in prices, which also requires an excuse for speculation. This excuse is the global supply chain bottleneck. Affected by the epidemic, international freight rates soared, life has made international logistics subject to certain restrictions, and at this time, the lagging executive orders in the United States have led to a detention in the port, a serious shortage of transport truck drivers, and finally the demand for terminal consumption can not be met, coupled with the speculation of funds, prices have soared.
Doesn't this look familiar? In fact, China's coal prices are the same logic, although the overall supply is not a problem, but due to capital speculation, the price of coal has gone all the way up. After the National Development and Reform Commission strictly checked the inventory, the coal market suddenly increased supply, so that prices also returned to normal levels.
So we see that even though demand for commodities is still weak and supply is not as tight as it seems on the surface, prices remain high, causing global inflation, the pressure is very obvious, and prices are beginning to rise.
If this level of inflation continues, the gains of economic growth will be eroded by inflation. The current CPI announced by the United States has remained above 5% for a long time, but the economic growth rate in the United States has fallen to about 2%, which means that the economic growth rate can no longer absorb inflation. It may mean that the world has just left a round of economic crisis and is about to enter a new round of recession.
We are now seeing a easing of port stranding that constrains global supply chains, losing the money to justify the hype, and coming under pressure to shift the Fed's monetary policy. So will inflation, which is so severe, continue to continue?
The obvious problem is that the Fed and the European Central Bank have long been unable to fully absorb the monetary liquidity released this time, so global inflation will only get higher and higher, not back to pre-crisis levels.
But there is still pressure to return to fair prices at the current excessively high commodity prices, and the hyperinflation and ultra-high bubbles instigated by monetary liquidity will burst sooner or later.