Its rise is also bold, and its death is also sudden. Recently, the steel market has been like a sudden change in the weather, which has cooled down rapidly, which has caught people off guard. On November 2, the period of steel threads and iron ore fell to a halt, the noon spiral closed 4230 fell 368 down 8%, iron ore 565.5 fell 62.5, coke 2923 fell 41.5, hot coil 4544 fell 382, shanghai index 3522.33 fell 0.62%.
If steel is still unmoved after the release of macroeconomic data in September, the weekly thread consumption fell by 30% year-on-year, and the price was beaten down. The focus of the market is not threads, nor steel, but "media super wind".
From October 19th to 28th, the National Development and Reform Commission pushed 28 articles on coal supply and price stabilization, including studying the definition criteria for coal enterprises to inflate prices and make huge profits; studying the implementation of intervention measures for coal prices in accordance with the law; emphasizing the strengthening of supervision and supervision in accordance with the law, strictly investigating and punishing capital for malicious speculation in thermal coal futures; and convening special meetings to study policies and measures to stop coal enterprises from making huge profits. Under a set of policy combinations, coal pit prices, port prices, and futures indices have all peaked and fallen. At present, effective control has been achieved, and even the bifocal has fallen to a stop continuously. It has a huge impact on spiral coils.
True, false, false, false and real
"There is a ceiling on the rebar spot, there is a lot of space below, and when it falls, pay attention to the spot coke." This is a paragraph written by Su Feng, general manager of Henan Dingding Industrial Co., Ltd., in the circle of friends after attending the 14th summit.
At the 14th China Steel Summit Forum Building Materials Sub-Forum held by China Steel Network, Su Feng's speech won bursts of applause, fierce speech, clear views, he believes that the current information is a mixture of virtual and real, true and false, "this year's market in the financial, media, international situation, the official joint promotion of the price reached a high point in history, in fact, everyone is a piece of true and false information to get some gains." I think this year's information is much more fake, really less, at the beginning of the year when you were talking about how many favorable conditions, this year will rise sharply, this year is a big rise, but the reason for the big rise is not caused by more than a dozen favorable factors at the beginning of the year? No, for example, 5G, intercity transportation, new infrastructure, so much content has been achieved this year? How many cashed in, and how many drove our prices today? No, so I have a particular opinion on the media and finance's push for prices this year. ”
In Su Feng's view, the media and economy are now tightly tied together, "It has no sense of responsibility, and it also wants to achieve certain economic benefits." Therefore, in the price of futures, stocks and certain industries, it plays a very big role, it can be overwhelming news and news releases, true and false, false and real, you can't figure it out, because your information is limited. Therefore, in the future, we should pay more attention to the judgment of the truth and falsity of information. ”
For the idea of next year, Su Feng believes that next year's real estate must be bad, "real estate problems we should pay attention to the reduction, next year to do rebar is more difficult, next year what is good?" Next year, the middle board is good, the roll plate is good, why is the middle plate good? The national output of the middle plate is limited, so next year's middle plate I think it should be good, now it is the highest price of the middle plate, followed by the coil, rebar finally, next year will maintain this state, the price is controlled around the cost line on the line. Su Feng stressed.
Thoroughly cooled "Golden Nine Silver Ten"
Now October has basically passed, looking back at this year's so-called "golden nine silver ten" has completely existed, the market demand is not even as good as the rainy season superimposed on the rare northern flood off-season, in recent years, the peak season is not peak off-season is not light to say more about the price, but this year, refers to the real demand, at the end of September, the market is almost optimistic about October, especially for construction steel, dare to say that they have to squat in the corner of the wall quietly said, most dealers in the end of September to the beginning of October also received a large number of goods, the result of the "bull market in the original wanted to Hurun, The result is on the credit report", the policy market, the emotional market, the news-filled market, the fluctuation of the disk day is the previous month or even a quarter. But in the end, the market will return to calm.
Looking back at the reasons for the rapid sharp decline in mid-to-late October, the main ones are: the macro data is unsatisfactory (the area of new real estate starts has fallen sharply and the ppi data has reached a new high), the policy guarantee (coal) supply and stabilization (pressure) price, the resumption of steel production under the stimulation of high profits is obvious, the expectation of the reduction of the standard in October is disappointed, the demand for the peak season is poor, and the superimposed disk surface in the peak season "do not look at the reality of the expectations" Of the impact of the stop board, at the end of the month, many market people have no idea what to say, how to analyze, blindfolded to brainless follow-up.
There must be accidents in the fall
Following the roller coaster market in May this year, in October, the market staged a roller coaster market again, falling from mid-October, thread spot has fallen by 600-800 yuan, hot coil fell by about 500 yuan, and other varieties have also fallen by 200-500 yuan. But the thread futures from more than 5800 to more than 4400 more than 1400 points, obviously fell too fast, the basis is a bit large, this can only be corrected by time and space. But after this slump, the trend in Q4 was reversed. You can't think of the 3rd quarter anymore. In the previous rising stage, the beautiful vision of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" could not be falsified.
Therefore, the concerns on the demand side need to be viewed from the perspective of the balance between supply and demand, the "carbon three blacks", and the overall economic situation. In the longer term, real estate investment and infrastructure investment have declined, and even if the real estate problem will bring about a certain marginal relaxation and policy improvement, it will not shake the tone of large industry supervision. Coupled with the fact that carbon as a faucet, the tide has receded. Then it is already difficult for the thread to climb the "historical top" in May this year.
In the past two days, under the strong intervention of the policy, coal prices have finally stopped the pace of running north and opened the road of correction. During this time, the power of the visible hand can be greater than anything else. The decline in steel prices is inevitable and accidental. It is the result of the resonance of demand factors superimposed on the changing weather of the commodity environment. Carbon fell, non-ferrous metals fell, methanol fell, soda ash fell.
From the current point of view, the downward momentum has been eased to a certain extent, but the trend has not changed. If the price of carbon is stable, steel will stabilize with the support of fundamentals and autumn and winter production restrictions. Even some markets will usher in a slight rebound. However, if the current round of bifocal continues to fall, there is still room for downward pressure in the current situation of weak supply and demand. The premise of market stability is that market sentiment is stable first. Market sentiment is stable, and the carbon plunge is stable. At present, the policy is mainly to crack down on speculation in the coal market according to law, and steel prices have undergone phased adjustments, and shocks are inevitable.
Fear the market and avoid risk
Recently, because the price has fallen rapidly, many steel orders are engaged in processing, and the loss is very large. The finished product has not yet been sold, the raw materials will come down a large section, and then the price will be reduced, and this rhythm cannot stand it. Steel mill inventories began to increase, indicating that the willingness to order declined, and various inverted hangings abounded. There are also broken contracts, do not implement the original price, or even do not issue invoices, resulting in no input invoices for the next home, bearing greater tax risks. This situation, because the price changes quickly, the amplitude of the large amount of the enterprise's operating risk is instantly amplified.
In the fourth quarter, the market to make money is definitely not as smooth as in the third quarter or the first half of the year, but in the high volatility stage of the blizzard superimposed on the sudden change of weather, even if there is a good opportunity to make money, it will not be as big as before. It is most important to protect the results of the first 3 stages before the end of the year and reduce risks.
For traders, the advice for October is to run fast, november, be positive, and give yourself a year-end red envelope! If you can't get on Hurun, you can leave some bullets for the rising price reserves of the living end!
China Steel Network Comprehensive Qiang Brother said steel, Zhao Li Entertainment said