Driving event: The stock price of food and beverage company Happy Home closed at 31 yuan on the first day of listing, more than 6 times higher than the issue price, and then fell sharply for two consecutive days, with a closing price of 22.95 as of today, down nearly 30% compared with the closing price of the first day.
History of Happy Home: Happy Home was established in 2001, mainly producing and operating canned fruits, canned seafood and canned quail eggs, and entered the plant protein beverage market in 2014.
Before entering the plant protein beverage industry, Happy Home has always been a canning production enterprise relying on the geographical advantages of Lingnan, and is the vice president of the national canning council, and the perennial marketing volume ranks among the top three in the country. Compared with other industries, the canning industry market is too small, so before Happy Home entered the plant protein beverage industry, the development of the enterprise encountered a bottleneck.
In 2013, the special soldier series of coconut juice launched by a marketing planning team in Guangdong opened up the field of coconut juice in the large package of coconut fruit coconut juice that Coconut Tree Group lacked, so that the sales volume of coconut juice in the circulation market, especially in rural catering channels, suddenly opened up space. At that time, countless coconut juice clutter imitation brands stood out and occupied the market, and Happy Home was one of them.
Compared with other coconut juice brands, Happy Home has its own factory, ready-made distributor channels and other advantages, so after The launch of Coconut Juice products, Happy Home quickly became the first brand in the circulation market, and the sales volume of coconut juice in the national market is second only to Coconut Tree. Coconut juice also quickly replaced canned food and grew into Joy's biggest source of revenue.
Peer comparison: Most of the current research reports on Happy Home take out Happy Home and compare it with Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulu, which have been listed in A shares, and I think this comparison is not accurate.
First of all, from the product, Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulu are long-established plant protein beverage manufacturers, both rely on a large single product to support the company's revenue, which is more like the coconut juice industry's old enterprise Hainan coconut palm coconut juice. They all have their own unique recipes, which can be understood as relying on secret recipes to maintain sales gross margins, and this advantage of the rising star Happy Home obviously does not.
Third, from the sales channel, Yangyuan and Lulu and Coconut Tree are established enterprises, and the brand awareness and sales network are stronger than that of Happy Home. The sales channels of the former are divided into distribution, direct sales and online, while the sales channels of Happy Home are distribution and online.
It is obvious that the former has more than a direct sales model than the happy home, which is also the most important reason why the happy home is currently lower than the former sales margin and the sales are small, because the direct sales reduce the middleman's link to earn the difference, and the direct operation will also increase the coverage of the product in the market and increase sales opportunities, but the direct operation also occupies the company's financial resources.
In this way, from the comparison of sales channels, it can be seen that Happy Home is weaker than the strength and influence of its opponents by more than one level. The advantages are: because distribution and online will make the return of funds of Happy Home healthier than the predecessors, the turnover rate is higher, and the development potential is also greater.
From the product point of view, whether it is Yangyuan Beverage or Chengde Lulu, because of the excessive dependence on the sales of large single products, the new product development ability is insufficient, and the revenue data growth in recent years has been lackluster. Compared with the introduction of coconut juice in 15 years, Huanjia quickly replaced the original canned products as the first source of revenue, which is also the corporate genetic advantage of huanjia private enterprises compared with Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulu.
Purpose of fundraising: The prospectus shows that the fundraising of Happy Home is mainly used for the construction of smart new retail network, product research and development and supplementary working capital.
Sales and product development are obviously the two pain points facing the current development of Happy Home. Doing the construction of the smart new retail network requires Happy Home to make improvements in products and increase product items, such as increasing mineral water or other beverage items, increasing cans of coconut water, etc. At present, the main sales of Coconut Juice of Happy Home come from large packaged products for catering consumption, and such products are obviously not suitable for smart new retail channels.
This is a growth point, according to the Happy Home prospectus, the company plans to invest a total of 50,000 self-service sales terminals in the market in three years to assist sales, proportional to the first batch of 20,000 units this year, we are calculated semi-annually: it will bring 82 * 180 * 20000 ≈ 300 million additional revenue, direct exchange profit is an increase of 300 million * 44.83% (with reference to the company's gross profit margin last year) ≈ 135 million sales gross profit, accounting for 135 million ÷ 329 million × of total profit in 2020 100%≈41%。
The above speculation is only for the sales generated by the additional increase in sales invested in smart retail terminal machines, and does not include the increase in the normal sales channels of the company's basic disk.
As for product research and development, this is the basis for the sustainable development of every production-oriented enterprise, for the Happy Home to follow the special soldiers with the coconut juice to make a fortune experience, I am optimistic about the subsequent plasticity of the Happy Home, after all, when it comes to happy home, our current impression is still stuck in the second-line brand product impression stage, and its potential has not yet been developed.
At present, the share price of Happy Home, I think the market valuation space of Happy Home should be greater than that of Yangyuan Beverage and Chengde Lulu, and the normal price-earnings ratio should be two to three times that of them. Combined with the smart new retail new project launch plan, in the third quarter, Happy Home will have an expectation of a substantial increase in revenue compared with the same period last year, and after the stock price of this wave falls in place, it can be focused on.
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Special Note:
My original research notes do not have investment guidance functions, and everyone needs to be responsible for their own transactions.
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This article is from the WeChat public account: Grain Garden Parlor (ID: Graingarden), author: Grain Garden Pavilion Owner