Today afternoon, Apple's main 2201 contract soared 500 points in the afternoon! Closing at 8165, it once again returned to its previous highs, and bullish sentiment made a comeback. So why did Apple suddenly skyrocket? Is the next step to continue to soar higher or to start the plunge?
Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hard-working and serious analyst. It is now the afternoon of November 2, Apple's surge has exceeded my expectations, and I want to review the reasons with you and analyze the next trend, hoping to help you.
First of all, supply and demand, for the overall supply estimate of the new season, the market generally believes that the overall output is high year-on-year, and even because the total supply of apples in the country is too much, Shandong apples are expected to reduce production by 15%. So why does the supply skyrocket when the supply is strong?
Here we have to mention a key word again: the fruit rate. Literally, although the yield is large, there are not many good apples. According to the investigation, among the 2026 samples in the northwest region, apples above 70# accounted for 97.8% of the total sample, more than 75# accounted for 36.4% of the 72.1.80# or more, and 9.1% above 85#; 73.0% above 80# in Shandong, of which 33.9% were large countries above 85#.
Many friends may often look at what does not know what it means, here with everyone science popularization: 70/75/80/85 represents the diameter of the apple, that is, the size, generally speaking, the price of the large fruit is higher than the price of the small fruit, so what is the delivery size required by the futures apple contract?
I specifically checked it, and the fruit path required by Zheng Shang was equal to 80. It can be seen that the proportion of more than 80# in the northwest region is relatively small, only half of the Shandong region. Here we will not discuss other delivery indicators, just look at the delivery path column, it seems worrying.
So the main bulls also took advantage of this, began to hype the excellent fruit rate, a wave of sharp rise to pull up, blowing up countless bears. But is the good fruit rate really enough to make up for the increase in production? And Shandong as the main apple production area, the fruit rate is still good, what is the intention of this wave of surge?
I think of a sentence written by Mr. Lu Xun in the "Diary of a Madman": "I opened the history and checked it, this history has no age, and the words "benevolence, righteousness and morality" are written on each leaf of the crooked slope." I couldn't sleep horizontally, and I looked carefully in the middle of the night before I could see the words in the cracks, and the two words were written all over the book: "Cannibalism"! ”
With the end of the last wave of apple boom, many retail investors have seen the essence of apples and have begun to turn short. Coupled with the fact that the main force was originally uneven, there was a high level of meat to leave, so the apple futures price experienced a wave of nearly 800 points of plunge, seeing that the apple was going to the end, and the bulls who were still in the field had bad thoughts.
The problem of the good fruit rate actually began to be hyped at the beginning of October, and the apple was fried all the way to 8500, but the result? Or down, now continue to speculate is just fried rice, in order to deceive retail investors to take over, the main force strives to make a look of rushing to the car, first pull the bears, and then attract more scattered in, and then leave the market again.
We seem to have seen such a story more than once, this time, how many people will be deceived? #期货 #
Glass or thread, they speculated to an outrageous price to make retail investors from doubt to belief, and then after taking over the plate, they hid their merits and names. There is also the black system, once speculated to the extent of forced power rationing, if it is not a high-level strong suppression of 9 days to issue 28 yuan to stabilize the price, the black system will continue to break through.
The heavy loss of the black system, the main force always has to find it, looking around, steel or chemical, there are really not many varieties that can be fried. However, apples seem to have a chance, oh, vegetables are so expensive, fruit is more expensive is also normal, right?
So they rushed in again, causing a sharp rise in the afternoon, the bears were caught off guard, countless short scatters were pulled to burst positions, unbelieving people were frequently stopped losses, and the retail investors who chased more were also collectively swept away by the market of 200 points in a few minutes, and I think there was not much to eat. #苹果期货 #
This wave of surge has made everyone see the power of hype again. But how long will the hype last? My last wave of 8100 short orders, with how they speculated, came out at 7700 yesterday. This time it's 8200 again, and the opportunity is no doubt coming again.
Summary: high-altitude thinking, higher and higher, persistence is victory, the black before dawn is always difficult, come on.
Are you scared?