Cao Yuanzheng: China's "double carbon" goal has a real foundation And attention should be paid to the status of fossil energy

From October 30 to 31, the 87th China Reform International Forum on "Building a New Development Pattern of China and the World", jointly sponsored by the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, bank of China, China Daily and the China Public Diplomacy Association, was held in Haikou, Hainan. Cao Yuanzheng, chairman of BOCI Research Corporation, said in a plenary session on the theme of "China's Opening Up Megatrend and Its Impact on the World Economy" that China's "double carbon" goal has a real foundation. It is necessary to use the method of reform and opening up to coordinate the relationship between emission reduction and economic development, and seize the new opportunities of the low-carbon economy.

Cao Pointed out that since the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, a low-carbon economy has been a global trend. For China, "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains" has become the consensus of people. However, energy prices are rising, and a green transition and sustainable economic development need to find a path. For China, a developing country, it is a special problem to complete carbon reduction while the economy is growing at a high speed.

He said that the "double carbon" target of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 has a foundation. GDP is highly correlated with the resilience of energy, usually after the late industrialization period, the energy begins to stabilize, the carbon peak is achieved, and then carbon neutrality begins. Research data shows that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, energy consumption is decreasing, and with the reduction of production capacity, the intensity of China's energy use is declining. In the long run, the global COVID-19 epidemic will be under control, and China will enter the normal state of energy use, in which case carbon peaking can be achieved in 2030. "According to the current energy utilization situation, around 2028, China's carbon dioxide emissions will be between 11.1 billion tons and 11.5 billion tons, creating conditions for carbon neutrality."

Cao Yuanzheng stressed that under the "double carbon" goal, great importance should be attached to the special status of fossil energy. From the perspective of international experience, in the use of energy, the global trend is two: one is the electrification of energy use, and the other is that the proportion of clean energy in electricity is increasing, and the requirements for peak regulation are getting higher and higher. From the current situation, if the new energy storage technology cannot appear or slowly appears, thermal power generation still needs to be regulated and arranged. This determines the special status of fossil fuels. He said. At present, there is a basic misunderstanding that carbon reduction is to exclude coal, but it is not, in the era of carbon neutrality, coal still has its important role, emission reduction is not necessarily the complete disappearance of fossil energy.

"How can the relationship between emission reduction and economic development be reconciled? I think it's still about reform. Cao Yuanzheng proposed that the regulation and price of fossil energy must pay special attention, if the profitability cannot be guaranteed, it will not take the initiative to reduce the use of coal power generation, which will cause harm to the power grid. In this case, it is important to raise energy prices and provide support subsidies. At the same time, the marketization of electricity and the realization of power bidding can make economic development and carbon reduction goals agree. "If scientific research is self-reliant, then the low-carbon economy is a good development direction in the future, and China has new capabilities and new markets to contribute to globalization."

It is reported that experts and scholars from relevant ministries and commissions of the state and more than 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway and other countries, as well as the United Nations Development Programme, UNESCO, the World Bank, the Secretariat of China-Japan-Korea Cooperation and other international organizations participated in the forum in online and offline ways.