Feitian Moutai fell nearly 400 yuan in 12 days: the variables of the "unboxing order" affected market sentiment

For Moutai in Guizhou, every small change in the channel policy affects the fluctuation of the terminal market price.

According to the interface reporter, since October 21, the market for the first time out of the Moutai "same day to cancel the unpacking order" news so far, within 12 days, the price of the original box wine in each year of Feitian Moutai has declined all the way, the decline has been close to 400 yuan.

Entering November, the price of Feitian Moutai fell slightly. Recently, the interface reporter visited some terminal markets in Beijing and found that the current price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles in 2021 ranges from 2700 yuan / bottle to 2800 yuan / bottle. Not only the price of bulk Moutai wine is relatively reduced, the price of feitian Moutai in the original box in 2021 will be reduced to 3600 yuan / bottle to 3700 yuan / bottle.

Terminal "sequelae"

From touching the red line of 3,000 yuan / bottle terminal at the beginning of the year, to now experiencing a slight decline after the double festival holiday. The price of Feitian Moutai terminal fell by nearly 400 yuan, which is the price of terminal supply and demand for product chase.

During the interview with the interface reporter, it was found that in 2021, the bulk bottle of Feitian Moutai has dropped from the previous 2850 yuan to about 2600 yuan. "Such a range is still acceptable, the main profit is not in the tobacco hotel, so buy more and earn more, buy less and earn less." But in fact, almost every year the fluctuation is like this, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day with the peak of wine, the price will drop to a certain extent, almost 100-200 yuan. Then, in mid-December, prices began to rise in preparation for the peak of wine use on New Year's Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. The owner of a tobacco hotel in Xicheng pointed out to reporters.

If it is said that the price reduction of the bulk bottle Feitian Moutai is the result of the self-regulation of the terminal, then the reason for the decline in the price of the original box of Moutai wine is indispensable to the lifting of the unpacking order.

According to the City Express, the Hangzhou Tibetan friend sold 150 cases of Moutai wine, each box of 6 bottles, all of which are vintage wines from 2018, 2019 and 2020, and finally agreed that the average price of recycling per bottle was about 3400 yuan. However, in the previous month, the price of some products ranged from 300-400 yuan higher than now, so if sold a month in advance, the recovery price per bottle was about 3700 yuan, and the total transaction amount was 3.33 million yuan, a difference of nearly 300,000 yuan from the current one.

In this regard, industry insiders pointed out that the sharp decline in product prices, especially Moutai wine outside Pumao, has occupied the upper hand in this round of terminal price fluctuations. The main reason is still due to the previous lifting of the unboxing order.

On October 21, the market for the first time reported the news that Moutai "canceled the unpacking order on the same day". The news that the price of the original box wine has been "high and unrecoverable" for more than a year since the implementation of the unboxing order, is like a fire extinguisher, which extinguishes the price and the hope of speculators.

When the interface reporter interviewed with the owner of the tobacco hotel and the channel scalper, he found that in the 12 days since October 21, the price of the original box wine of Feitian Moutai in various years has fallen all the way, and the decline has approached 400 yuan.

Among them, the original box of wine in 2020 fell from 3800 yuan / bottle on October 21 to 3450 yuan / bottle on November 1; the original box of wine in 2019 fell from 3820 yuan / bottle on October 21 to 3550 yuan / bottle on November 1; the original box of wine in 2018 fell from 3850 yuan / bottle on October 21 to 3700 yuan / bottle on November 1. In addition, the zodiac wine has also declined to varying degrees, the largest decline is the original box of the Chinese zodiac wine in the Year of the Sheep and the original box of the Chinese zodiac wine in the Year of the Horse, which dropped from 32,000 yuan / bottle and 21,000 yuan / bottle on October 21 to 31,000 yuan / bottle and 20,000 yuan / bottle, respectively, with a decline of 1,000 yuan.

"The price of Moutai wine fell because the official policy of Canceling the Unpacking Order of Moutai in Guizhou caused panic among market speculators, so these speculators began to sell the Moutai wine hoarded in their hands, which in turn led to an enlargement of the supply of Moutai wine in the market, resulting in a phased decline in the price of Moutai wine." In this regard, Xiao Zhuqing, chairman of Wuhan Jingkui Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out to the interface reporter.

Difficult to "converge"

Although the terminal prices of all types of Products in Feitian Moutai have declined in the process of canceling unpacking orders and market self-adjustment, the official retail price of 1499 yuan is still at a high level.

On the one hand, the terminal retail prices are high, and on the other hand, the many policies introduced by enterprises to cool down the channels are exhausted.

In this context, whether it is Li Baofang, who took over the baton in the follow-up, or Gao Weidong, who stayed for a short time, the sales channel has become the object of "main attack".

In 2019, the price of Feitian Moutai is in silence and gradually brewing to explode.

In April 2019, Guizhou Moutai Liquor Sales Company commissioned the release of 600 tons of Moutai liquor public recruitment supermarkets and store announcements, and finally China Resources Vanguard Co., Ltd., Kangcheng Investment (China) Co., Ltd. and Wumart Technology Group Co., Ltd. became the first batch of distributors of Guizhou Moutai Liquor in the first batch of national supermarkets and stores.

Despite the expanding channels of direct sales, the terminal does not seem to be buying it. During the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2019, the price of Moutai touched 2900 yuan. Since the beginning of December, the price of bulk bottle Feitian Moutai is between 2500-2700 yuan. The rising terminal price seems to have laid the groundwork for touching the "red line" of 3,000 yuan in the future.

"Because Moutai has opened up vertical e-commerce and supermarkets, it has a certain chain reaction for the channel side, which has reduced the price of Moutai." However, due to the just demand for consumption, with the advent of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the demand has climbed, further promoting the phased price increase of the entire Moutai Period. Zhu Danpeng, an analyst in the national food industry, told the interface reporter.

In 2020, the price of Feitian Moutai continued to "feitian", touching the "red line" at the same time, there was no downward trend.

During the Spring Festival in 2020, the price of Feitian Moutai once again touched 2900 yuan, and some cigarette hotels were priced at as high as 3000 yuan. The red line is hanging in front of the eyes, and Moutai in Guizhou has to give another strong medicine for the channel.

On June 18, Guizhou Moutai signed a new contract with direct sales channel providers, including 16 regional KA stores, 4 liquor vertical e-commerce companies and 2 tobacco retail chains, which is also the first time that liquor vertical e-commerce and tobacco retail chains have become direct sales channels for Moutai liquor in Guizhou. After the signing of this contract, the number of regional KA store service providers signed by Moutai in Guizhou has increased to 35.

The ever-expanding direct sales force has not alleviated the hard-to-find situation in the end market. From the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, the terminal price of Feitian Moutai has successfully stood on the 3,000 yuan step in some areas, and there is no downward trend.

In 2021, the change of leadership team and the implementation of new policies have made the terminal price of Feitian Moutai slightly "converge".

The "unboxing order" became a method for Moutai in Guizhou to control terminals.

Before the Spring Festival in 2021, Moutai officially proposed the "100% unboxing sales" policy, Moutai Group required Moutai stores and distributors to unbox Moutai wine at a price of 1499 yuan.

However, long-term high temperature terminals cannot be alleviated by a paper "unboxing order". According to public information, the prices of Feitian Moutai original box and loose bottle wine in 2021 are 3800 yuan / bottle and 3000 yuan / bottle, respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 27% and 21% respectively.

"Unboxing is mainly to combat some violations, but it also infringes on the interests of some consumers." According to the product quality law, the distillery needs to provide consumers with products that comply with the national product quality law, and the packaging box includes the word. Therefore, unboxing and sales infringe on the rights of consumers to a certain extent, especially gift consumers and collectors and investment consumers. Xiao Zhuqing, an expert in liquor marketing, pointed out.

When terminals gradually lost hope in the rising price of Moutai, a turning point occurred in August 2021.

In August, due to the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration held a symposium on the supervision of liquor market order, the price of Feitian Moutai terminal liquor fell slightly, and the price of Feitian Moutai in 2021 was about 2700-2800 yuan.

Since then, according to market news, in 2021, the total amount of Moutai wine in Guizhou Moutai in the double festival is expected to be more than 7500 tons, plus the two new products of Moutai 1935 and Xiangyi Wuzhou Moutai wine, with a total of more than 8000 tons. At the same time, Guizhou Moutai also launched an "empty bottle repurchase".

According to the liquor price monitoring data released by the liquor industry network, during the eleventh period this year, Feitian Moutai bulk liquor was about 2700-2800 yuan.

In this regard, Cheng Wansong, secretary general of the Beijing Liquor Circulation Industry Association, pointed out that the purpose of empty bottle repurchase is to guide consumers to improve the opening rate of Feitian Moutai. However, because of its high price, consumers are easily reluctant to open the bottle. Empty bottle repurchase should not be a precondition for the purchase of Feitian Moutai, consumers should enjoy the right to freely dispose of the purchased goods, and the repurchase of empty bottles is even detrimental to consumer rights and interests to some extent.

Brief emotional release

Nowadays, when the amount is released, the "unpacking order" and other measures are in parallel, the price of Feitian Moutai has gradually fallen from the mark of 3,000 yuan to about 2,700 yuan. However, such a price is still a certain distance away from the rational price that should belong to Feitian Moutai.

"When the price was low in previous years, it was more cost-effective to buy. Although it seems that the price has dropped now, the price of Feitian Moutai on the upcoming New Year's Day and Spring Festival will rise again. In this regard, the owner of a cigarette hotel said.

As far as Feitian Moutai is concerned, it integrates consumer goods, luxury goods and investment products, and has strong drinkability, collectibility and investment. In this context, the brand premium and financial attributes give a bottle of 53-degree liquor more value.

"Moutai has a long period of high prices, in order to prevent the market price from being hot, Moutai also actively carries out related volume on the channel, so while the enterprise has corresponding actions, it will have a whole-body effect on the market." On the whole, Moutai is not only a simple consumer goods, but also a luxury and investment product, with the improvement of market consumption capacity, the attributes of these three aspects have gradually increased. Cai Xuefei, a liquor marketing expert, told the interface reporter.

At the same time, dealers who hold the "wealth code" in their hands are difficult to "sit firmly on Mount Taishan" in the face of today's falling prices.

"For the terminal price that is gradually declining, many tobacco hotels and distributors will hoard alcohol. The main reason behind this is that the fundamental factors of Moutai price changes are determined by the market supply and demand relationship. The relationship between supply and demand does not change, and the terminal price of Feitian Moutai will return to a high state in the future. At present, the decline in the price of Feitian Moutai is only the release of market sentiment, which will be short-lived. In this regard, industry insiders pointed out.

In fact, the fundamental impact on the price of Feitian Moutai lies in the production capacity of Moutai.

Jin Yufeng, director and managing partner of Zhongyuan Fund, pointed out to the interface reporter that "in addition to the drinking attributes of Moutai, he is also an investment product and a collectible, so the price will rise in the future." In the case of static ex-factory prices, in the next 2-3 years, the supply of direct sales channels and the volume of Moutai liquor will increase year after year, which will relatively inhibit the rapid rise in Moutai price wine prices to a certain extent. ”