In the past two days, rumors of a plummeting price of Moutai wine have been circulating.
CSI Jun visited and found that the current Moutai wine market is divided into two camps, on the one hand is the terminal market represented by Moutai dealers, and the general feedback is that "Moutai wine has not fallen as much as rumors." On the one hand, speculators who earn the difference in the price with the upside-down Moutai are generally feedback: "The whole market has plummeted." ”
What is the current market? How will the plate of Moutai in Guizhou go?
Market sentiment is more pessimistic
On November 1, a dealer in Moutai in Guizhou told CSI: "Moutai has not fallen as much as everyone has rumored. It has been a long time since the National Day began to fall, and it is a process of continuous decline. "
CSI Jun learned that the terminal retail price of Beijing and Shanghai Feitian Moutai is generally near 3,000 yuan / bottle, and the terminal retail price began to fall after the National Day, mainly because the "unpacking policy" is not as strict as before, and the supply in the hands of dealers is relatively abundant.
There are also Moutai speculators who said, "This period of time has fallen more severely, the current price a day, I collect wine prices at 2400 yuan, the price of wine from other channels is 2700 yuan, and each bottle is sold outwards and then added 150 yuan." ”
For the future market, there are Moutai speculators who are more pessimistic, and mostly think that the market of Moutai should see whether the demand for the year is strong, and may rise somewhat, but the increase will not exceed before.
Some speculators said: "Moutai has risen for four years, where there is an undefeated myth, every industry has high and low, I do not release goods in my hand, it should be sold." ”
The secondary market has been supported by many big guys
On November 2, Guizhou Moutai shared an article saying that the actual decline in the terminal price of Moutai wine was not large, and the reason for the price decline was not the sluggish demand side, and the market volume increased since the double festival, resulting in a reasonable market correction.
According to industry analysts, during the 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival national day double festival, Guizhou Moutai "opened the floodgates" to stabilize the price of wine, and put more than 8,000 tons of Moutai wine into the market. In addition, after the double festival, consumers' demand for visiting relatives and friends and giving gifts weakened, which led to a decrease in prices to a certain extent.
Affected by the news of the plummeting price of Feitian Moutai, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai opened low on Monday and then stabilized, and has now fallen for two consecutive days.
(Source: Flush)
Dan Bin, a private equity tycoon who has been supporting Moutai for many years, also posted on Weibo: "Recently, there have been more things in the 'black' dragon head liquor, and the long head liquor has fallen by more than 30% four times in history, and every time it is a big opportunity in hindsight." ”
(Source: Weibo)
It is worth mentioning that Zhang Kun, the fund manager of E Fangda, who is known as one of the "world wineries", has recently re-optimistic about liquor. In the third quarter, E Fangda high-quality enterprise three-year holding period mix, E Fangda blue chip select mix and E Fangda high-quality select mixed fund all bought liquor stocks. Zhang Kun believes: "Some long-term excellent listed companies have recently seen a significant decline in stock prices. After this round of decline, the valuation of these high-quality companies has been basically reasonable. ”
At the same time, in the third quarterly report of Moutai in Guizhou, the Bank of China Co., Ltd. - China Merchants CSI Baijiu Index Graded Securities Investment Fund continued to increase its positions. At this point, the largest fund shareholder of Guizhou Moutai has changed hands, and China Merchants CSI Liquor under China Merchants Fund has defeated the Flagship Fund of American Capital Group, the European Pacific Growth Fund, becoming the fund that holds the most in Guizhou Moutai. The former holds 7.46 million shares of Kweichow Moutai and the latter holds 5.8232 million shares.
Hou Hao, fund manager of China Merchants CSI Liquor Index, previously said that the liquor leader released a positive signal, and the industry can be more optimistic in the short term, and the liquor sector still needs to track the changes in sales and price systems, as well as the changes in the price of high-end liquor terminals. Investors can moderately lower their expectations this year and wait for the wind. Looking at the time stretch, the liquor sector still has a good allocation value under the trend of consumption upgrading and concentration improvement.
This article originated from China Securities News