Under the influence of the epidemic, the global property market prices have soared, which has recently triggered industry concerns about the growth of asset bubbles.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="60" > global house prices in Europe and the United States have risen amazingly</h1>
According to the "October Overseas Real Estate House Price Map" of 58.com and Settlers, since the beginning of this year, U.S. house prices have jumped, especially in April and May, and the median housing price has increased by more than 20% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1998. The median price of second-hand houses hit an all-time high in June, reaching $36.28.
Meanwhile, the average selling price of a house in the UK was £267587, up 1.71% year-on-year in September, the biggest monthly increase since February 2007. The reason for the rapid rise in house prices in the UK is mainly driven by the impact of the UK government's stamp duty reduction policy and the demand for large houses with office space far from the city center under the epidemic.
Since the beginning of this year, global house prices have risen most widely in 20 years, and the price increases in developed countries in Europe and North America have reached an alarming level. According to the analysis of 58 Housing Research Institute, there are four main reasons for the rise in global housing prices:
First of all, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an unexpected impact on housing prices, and economic uncertainty has made people's consumption concepts more conservative and eager to buy more properties, which has promoted the prosperity of the real estate market;
Secondly, working from home during the epidemic has created new housing needs, and many people want to find a quieter environment and a larger area of housing to adapt to working from home;
Third, the epidemic has also led to a reduction in the supply of housing. The prices of raw materials such as steel, copper and timber needed to build housing have soared, and the already scarce housing supply has been hit again.
Finally, many central banks around the world have implemented quantitative easing policies, and rising prices have further promoted the sharp rise in global house prices.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="59" > multi-agency reminder: be wary of the global property bubble</h1>
In its analysis of the U.S. property market, Fortune magazine said that in the past five years, as millennials (born between 1989 and 1993) entered their 30s, most people will start buying houses at this age. But after a decade of housing crisis, builders became wary in the decade after 2010, and the U.S. market was not prepared for a massive increase in millennial homebuyers. According to statistics, this has led to a shortage of about 4 million houses in the United States.
The unprecedented scale of this round of global property market rally is inseparable from ultra-low interest rates, monetary easing and large-scale government stimulus measures in many countries. Of the 56 global markets in which housing statistics are published to date, real house prices (i.e., inflation-adjusted prices) have risen in 43 markets.
In the UBS Global Housing Bubble Index 2021 report, UBS analyzed residential property prices in 25 major cities around the world, where inflation-adjusted house price growth accelerated to 6 percent from mid-2020 to mid-2021, the highest annual growth rate since 2014. Frankfurt, Toronto and Hong Kong have the highest levels of property market risk, with bubble risk increasing on average last year, as well as increasing the likelihood of a sharp price correction in many of the cities the index tracks.
Among these indicators, the house price/rent and house price/income ratios help to assess the sustainability of price increases, which reflect the current upward trend. Even as risk indicators rise, interest rates remain low, mortgage conditions are generally stricter than in the past, and overall policy is beginning to be prudent. Therefore, without seeing the factors that triggered the collapse of the housing market, the future housing market is more likely to cool down than to crash.
As for the severity of the market bubble, many experts believe it is too early to draw conclusions. Some experts believe that we are currently in a period of excessively high housing prices but limited bubbles, there has not been excessive borrowing, and the risk of a real estate bubble is not high.
Not long ago, the IMF warned that global stocks and property markets are at risk of a massive sell-off. As the Fed and other central banks pull back the support they provided during the pandemic, global stock prices and home values are at risk of plummeting. Tobias Adrian, head of capital markets at the IMF, said in an interview, "Given the high level of valuations, we are concerned about the possibility of a massive sell-off. ”
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="36" > how about China's property market? Regulation and control have increased to stabilize the property market</h1>
As we all know, since the beginning of this year, the property market regulation and control policies have been tightening, especially the increase in mortgage interest rates on many places, the tight amount of housing loans in some banks, etc., which has raised the threshold for many buyers to buy houses.
As a result, the property market has also ushered in signs of cooling. On November 2, 58.com and Settlers released the 2021 October National Housing Index Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which shows that in October 2021, in the 65 cities monitored by the country, the average online price of new houses was 17462 yuan / square meter, up 0.43% month-on-month; the average price of second-hand houses listed online was 16895 yuan / square meter, down 0.68% month-on-month, and the average price of second-hand houses listed in only 10 cities rose month-on-month. In 8 of the 10 cities that have implemented the reference price system for second-hand houses, the listing price has shown a downward trend from the previous month.
The report shows that in October, the average price of second-hand houses listed in 65 major cities across the country was 16895 yuan / square meter, down 0.68% month-on-month, and the second-hand house listing prices in 10 of the 65 cities rose month-on-month. Among them, the average price of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai is higher than 50,000 yuan / square meter, which is 59,162 yuan / square meter, 57,058 yuan / square meter and 54,129 yuan / square meter, respectively.
It is worth noting that at present, among the 10 cities that have implemented the second-hand housing reference price system, 8 cities have seen a month-on-month decline in listing prices, namely Dongguan, Ningbo, Chengdu, Sanya, Shaoxing, Wuxi, Hefei and Guangzhou.
For the property market trend in October, Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Housing Research Institute, said: "Overall, the current property market has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market, and the decline in transaction volume, the lack of strength and even the decline in transaction prices are important manifestations, and the changes in market mentality have led to a significant decline in heat." In addition, at the level of objective factors, the strict control of housing loan policies has led to a sharp decline in demand, especially the problem of second-hand housing loans in some cities is difficult to lend, and the problem of long lending cycles has led to a continuous lengthening of the transaction cycle, which will also have an important impact on market sentiment. ”
In the case of the continuous tightening of the property market regulation and control policies and the beginning of the cooling of the property market, can we still buy a house this year?
According to the "Summary of the Property Market in the Third Quarter of 2021" released by 58.com and Anjuke, the heat of finding a house in the third quarter fell by 9.6% year-on-year, and the heat of second-hand houses fell by 23.8% year-on-year. It can be seen that many buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards buying a house. At the same time, after the property market cooled down in September, there are many voices in the market that the downward trend of house prices may continue until next year, which makes more buyers dare not easily get on the car.
"Real estate looks at the population in the long run, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term." China's real estate market has bid farewell to the era of high growth, and real estate policies should adapt to the characteristics of the new development stage of "total slowdown and structural differentiation", and avoid the bubble risk of hoping to stimulate real estate to return to high growth.