Discover future value, starting with getting to know the company
In the blink of an eye, this year's market is also about to enter the tail stage, since the beginning of the third quarter, the performance of the index after the Shanghai Securities hit a stage high is not too dazzling, and today it is an important psychological threshold that has broken down to three or five zero in one fell swoop, some people feel panic, but some people feel excited, because in the only dozens of trading days, perhaps the last exciting inflection point is coming!
This morning, phosphorus chemical industry and cyclical industry took the lead in smashing the disk, the market sentiment then dropped to the freezing point, in the atmosphere of popular panic was broken down, but then was dragged up by the bottom of the army, which also shows that the psychological impact of this integer threshold on people is still quite large, but the author believes that it is only the psychological impact!
From the perspective of the industry, phosphorus chemical industry has become today's leading big brother, and in an instant, many people have always continued to interpret the trick of falling with the wind, all day long this collapse that collapse, but the author believes that the cheap chips of the collapse of the collapse will inevitably cost a greater price back to your pocket in the future, because only a very small number of people will really understand the meaning of value!
Xingfa Group
Power rationing production stopped, the price increase exceeded 40%, chip electronics exceeded expectations, and the net profit doubled tenfold in ten years.
The above article is an article written by the author on May 26, when it was also met with many people's hot discussion, now looking back, it can only be said that it interprets a famous saying to the fullest, that is, "Today's me, you love to answer, tomorrow's me, you can't climb high"!
But the topic I want to talk about today is still it, because many people are generally talking about it, the cyclical industry is on the verge of the end of the industry cycle, the author also agrees with this, but the theme I want to talk about is that although the company is indeed a cyclical industry, this cyclicality has gradually begun to change to certainty along with the rise of another industry, and it is lithium iron phosphate! (More on that later)
Recently, the company disclosed the statements of the first three quarters, revenue of 16.58 billion, an increase of 8.93% year-on-year, net profit of 2.488 billion, an increase of 592.24% year-on-year, there will certainly be people here who are very confused, the revenue growth rate is less than 10% and why is the net profit so large growth?
From the perspective of the company's main business structure, it can be roughly divided into four major sectors, glyphosate and by-products (revenue accounted for 25.77%), chlor-alkali and silicone (revenue accounted for 22.65%), fertilizer and electronic chemistry (revenue accounted for 13.79%).
Presumably everyone is very clear this year, glyphosate and silicone and other factors have been affected by many factors have seen a sharp rise, of which the company's revenue accounted for the first glyphosate because of multiple factors such as supply and demand, the price rose from 28,000 / ton to 80,000 / ton, and the company with an annual output of 180,000 tons of production capacity to become the largest glyphosate enterprise in China, the product price rose sharply and thus greatly increased the company's profits, which is also very in line with the special nature of the cyclical industry. However, with the near end of the industry cycle as prices fall, the expectation of the company's future performance decline is also there.
Phosphorus chemical industry chain
The rise of an industry will inevitably drive the entire industrial chain, the author first threw out a clear point of view: lithium iron phosphate will inevitably become an important starting point for leveraging the phosphorus chemical industry, and the rise of phosphorus chemical industry will also gradually transform the company from cyclical to future certainty of the market expectations!
One: Tesla as the world's leading enterprises in new energy vehicles, high-profile announcement will be S and Y version of the battery replaced into lithium iron phosphate battery, this move is not to pull the grade of the power battery down, its very important point is to accelerate the market penetration rate faster, on the one hand, the global lithium battery material prices soaring at the same time, the profit of vehicle companies gradually decreased, and the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries first has the outstanding advantages of safety and low cost, on the other hand, in the future in the process of accelerated penetration of global new energy vehicles, Can become the mainstay and the amount of only low-end cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the reason is very simple, to the street to take a look, is the low-end car mainly or high-end cars mainly.
Second: the first three quarters of this year's national power battery production of 134.7 GWh, of which ternary batteries 62.8 GWh, an increase of 131.1% year-on-year, lithium iron phosphate 71.6 GWh, an increase of 291.4%, and with 53.2% of the output accounted for more than ternary battery production.
Third: lithium iron phosphate battery cathode material by phosphorus source, iron source, carbon source and lithium source, the company in the field of fine phosphorus chemical industry has 160,000 tons of yellow phosphorus, fine phosphate 200,000 tons of production capacity, is the national product pipeline is very rich enterprises, the former drive body iron phosphate as an example, the company has a very obvious advantage, to supporting production as an example, A ton of iron phosphate requires the consumption of 0.85 tons of purified acid and 0.65 tons of hydrogen peroxide, 2.5 tons of ferrous sulfate and 0.25 tons of synthetic ammonia, which will become the company's future efficiency advantage.
Phosphate rock reserves
The ultimate source of phosphorus chemical industry is phosphate ore, the author believes that the characteristics of phosphorus resources in the future are expected to become the next "lithium mine", from the perspective of reserves, the company currently controls phosphate ore reserves of 429 million tons, in addition to the proven reserves of 289 million tons through 70% of the shares (Jingzhou Jinghua), 50% of the shares (Qiaogou Mining) proven reserves of 188 million tons, subsidiary Yuan'an Jixing proved reserves of 315 million tons, which shows that the company's phosphorus resource reserves are very rich, and gradually form an industrial chain advantage of mineralization and electrification!
Black phosphorus
The company and the Chinese Academy of Sciences cooperation in research and development of black phosphorus has achieved kilogram-level preparation, and carried out 100 kg-level experiments, although there is still a distance from mass production, but the application of black phosphorus in the field of precious metal catalysis and lithium battery anode phosphorus carbon composite materials is also very worth looking forward to!
Disclaimer: The data involved in this article are all disclosed by the source company.