On the first day of November, the black system was once again faced with "black", and the thermal coal and its coking coal struggled all day, but in the afternoon they still fell to a halt. Affected by this, the thread fell below 4500 again, and methanol also came to around 2800. So, how much room is there for threads and methanol to go down at this time? Is it the best time to bottom out?
Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hard-working and serious analyst. Today to talk to you about the thread, at the end of the article by the way to mention methanol, two popular varieties together, I hope to help you. #Methanol ##螺纹 #
The old rule, or first say the conclusion:
The bottom of the thread has been formed, it should be more than empty; methanol or there is still a downward trend, but the general direction is bullish.
So why do I say that? Please listen carefully, first of all, three reasons why the thread is bullish:
First, the relationship between supply and demand
Today I will not list the data, some people feedback to see the data headache, ask me to say the conclusion directly.
The supply and demand relationship of the thread is very simple, in a word: supply and demand are weak, and the decline in inventory is slowing down, which is undoubtedly a low price for stability in the steel level.
Second, market sentiment
As the Chinese New Year approaches and property taxes are also being piloted, the future of the real estate industry is still uncertain. The market's bullish sentiment towards rebar is not high and generally bearish.
Coupled with the fact that the decline in thermal coal is still continuing, it will affect the price of bifocal and steel, and hit the confidence of market bulls.
Market sentiment here is generally bearish, why am I bullish? Let's look at the third point and then talk about it.
THIRD, basis - current price difference (emphasis)
Anyone who has learned futures knowledge should know that the basis is the spot price minus the futures price. So what is the basis of rebar? 890！ Probably many friends have no concept of this number, I will elaborate on three cases where the basis is average:
1 Normal situation where the basis is negative: In the normal supply and demand situation of the commodity, the basis should generally be negative for the reasons for the cost and risk of the reference price holding, that is, the spot price should be less than the futures price of the commodity. #期货 [Super Talk] #
2 Inverted market situation with positive basis: When there is a shortage of commodities in the market and supply exceeds demand, the spot price is higher than the futures price
3 Market conditions with zero basis: As futures contracts get closer to the delivery period, the basis gets closer and closer to zero.
What about the spot price of rebar? For 5381! What is the annual average of the basis of rebar? It's 173, and now it's 890! The main contract 2201 represents that the rebar will be delivered in January 2022, just three months ago, although the futures delivery price will not be as consistent with the spot as mentioned above, but it is undeniable that it will be close.
That is to say, as long as the spot price is stable, it is inevitable that the futures price will rebound closer to the spot price. Even if the spot price continues to shrink, limited by the weakness of supply and demand, it will not fall sharply, then the futures price rebound is a high probability event.
So what should I think of the operation idea?
Thread first look at the decline of thermal coal tomorrow, if the thermal coal stabilizes, the thread can be lightly bullish, and then fall to increase the position, and then fall and add, leaving two opportunities to increase the position. Rebar is too much to look at, the middle line to see 4800 is still not a big problem, even from now on 4455 there is more than 300 space.
Let's talk about methanol. In fact, methanol is relatively stronger than the demand for rebar, the previous article has also been analyzed with everyone and will not say more, today's decline in methanol is purely implicated in the decline of thermal coal, but it can be seen that although the thermal coal white plate finally fell to a halt, the magnitude of the decline in methanol is also very limited, until the night plate is only more than 100 points.
Therefore, the operation idea of methanol is the same as that of rebar, and after watching the thermal coal stabilize again tonight, the light warehouse will bottom out. The difference is that the rebar is down to increase the position, methanol can also increase the position, after all, the current methanol is close to the bottom, there is a large imagination space above. #期货 #
Well, the above is today's sharing, more than a single quilt set of friends do not have to rush, really afraid to reduce the point of the warehouse, anti-one antibody, spring will come. Creation is not easy, continuous sharing is more difficult, like can like to support Oh ~ what do you think of these two varieties? Bullish or bearish?