The hot market in the container shipping market has made more and more shipowners "run into the field" to place orders for shipbuilding, and this year's container ship new shipbuilding market has ushered in an unprecedented tide of orders, the first 9 months of container ship new ship orders have hit a record high in 14 years, and the Chinese shipyard that has received nearly 60% of the orders is undoubtedly the biggest winner of this round of container ship orders.
In its latest report, Clarkson said that container ship orders reached 473 vessels of about 3.9 million TEU in the first three quarters, surpassing the previous annual order record of 2007 (3.4 million TEU). It was also Clarkson's highest number of new container ship orders since it began counting orders in 1996.
From a national point of view, there are 7 Chinese shipyards and 3 South Korean shipyards among the top 10 shipyards in the world that have received orders for container ships. The top 10 container shipyards received a total of 247 new ship orders in the first three quarters, about 2.95 million TEU, and the number of vessels and TEU accounted for 52.22% and 75.44% of the total container ship orders in the first three quarters, respectively.
According to the data, in the first three quarters, 37 shipyards around the world received container ship orders, of which 26 were Chinese shipyards, while Chinese shipyards received 305 container ship orders in the first three quarters of 2.23 million TEU, accounting for 57.01% according to TEU. The top 10 Chinese shipyards for new container ship orders are Yangtze River Shipbuilding, Hudong Zhonghua, Jiangnan Shipbuilding, Dachuan Group, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, Yangzhou COSCO SHIPPING Heavy Industry, Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, CSSC Huangpu Wenchong, Dalian COSCO SHIPPING Kawasaki, and Nantong COSCO SHIPPING Kawasaki.
At the same time, container ship handheld orders continue to grow, with the current proportion of handheld orders in the existing fleet rising sharply to 23% from 8% at the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, the highest level since 2014, although still below 60% in 2008.
Statistics show that this year's most popular is the 12,000-17,000 TEU new Panamax container ship, and the number of handheld orders in this ship type field has reached 2.9 million TEU. In the current container ship handheld orders, 12000 TEU and above accounted for up to 75% (calculated according to TEU), of which 12000-17000 TEU ships accounted for 52%, 17000 TEU and above accounted for 23%. In addition, the demand for newbuilding for 7000TEU container ships is picking up, and there have been 51 orders for 7000TEU ships this year, and the current 3000-8000TEU container ships account for 13% of the total handheld orders. Small container ships under 3,000 TEU are also in strong demand, with a total of 270 TEU of about 500,000 TEU currently in hand.
On the other hand, there is no consensus on container shipowners ordering new vessels in terms of fuel and technology options. At present, 23% of container ship manual orders can operate on alternative fuels, the main alternative fuel is LNG, but there are also some new ships under construction that can use methanol power, such as Maersk Line's eight 16,000 TEU and 1 2100 TEU vessel ordered by South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries Group this year, all of which will operate on methanol fuel.
This year's record number of new ship orders will see a significant increase in deliveries from 2023 to 2024. Container ship deliveries are expected to be around TEU 1 million in 2022 and more double to 2.2 million TEU in 2023, surpassing the record high of 1.7 million TEU in 2015, according to Clarkson. Deliveries in 2024 are also estimated at 1.9 million TEU, and this number will have room for further upside.
Clarkson expects different scenarios for fleet growth in 2023-2024, given the possibility of shipbreaking and delivery delays. In the case of "high growth" (only 200,000 TEU per year, and a delayed delivery rate of 5%), fleet capacity growth in 2023-2024 is likely to exceed 7%, much higher than the expected 4% in 2021 and 2022. Even if the dismantling effort is increased to 400,000 TEU per year and the delay rate reaches 10%, the fleet growth rate will still increase significantly to more than 6% from 2023 to 2024. At the same time, under the "low growth" assumption, the annual number of shipbreaks reached a record 750,000 TEU (which is also possible given the increasing environmental and regulatory pressures), and the delayed delivery rate was 15%, and the fleet growth rate was about 4-5% from 2023 to 2024.
Clarkson concluded that new ship deliveries are likely to hit new highs in the coming years, but the number of shipbreaks remains a very important factor affecting the growth of the fleet. Starting in 2023, the container ship sector will usher in a more substantial fleet expansion, which is likely to bring pressure on the supply side.