In the past five years, China's glacial acetic acid market price shock upwards, after the price created a record high in 2018, 2021 again reached a new high, full of attention.
China's glacial acetic acid market has grown steadily in the supply side and demand side in the past five years, the relationship between supply and demand is relatively balanced, and the overall price trend is above the main actor.
In the past five years, China's glacial acetic acid prices have fluctuated upwards
From 2017 to 2018, the start of foreign glacial acetic acid devices was unstable, the export market provided support for the domestic market, coupled with the slowdown in the growth rate of domestic glacial acetic acid production capacity, and some downstream production capacity expansion, glacial acetic acid just needed to increase, making China's glacial acetic acid market enter the upward channel, and the price continued to rise. For most of 2019-2020, the glacial acetic acid market is dominated by shocks and downwards, mainly due to the increase in supply due to the steady increase in domestic glacial acetic acid production capacity, and due to unexpected factors such as public health events, demand has declined in stages.
Figure 1
Glacial acetic acid prices continued to rise in the first three quarters of 2021
From January to September 2021, China's glacial acetic acid market trend is above the main behavior, the price has been rushed higher many times, and the trend during the year can be roughly divided into three stages: steady upward (January to April), stable weakening (May to August) and price rush (September). Taking the East China market as an example, the average price from January to September was about 6602 yuan / ton, up 165.97% year-on-year. The price low in the first three quarters was 3875 yuan / ton, which appeared in early January, and the highest point was 9075 yuan / ton, which appeared at the end of September, which was a historical high in nearly fifteen years.
Figure 2
The price fluctuations of glacial acetic acid in China in the first three quarters of 2021 are mainly caused by the combined effects of the supply side and the demand side.
Changes in supply are the most important influencing factor for price fluctuations during the year. The routine maintenance plan of glacial acetic acid devices is mostly concentrated in January and April, so that the industry starts to maintain a relatively low level, factory inventories remain at a low level, spot supply is tight, and factory offer prices continue to rise. In the middle of the year, the equipment began to resume normal operation, the industry started to improve, the supply of goods was stable, and the price of glacial acetic acid was adjusted in stages. From August to September, many sets of devices in East China, North China and Northwest China experienced parking and load decline, the supply shortage situation still occurred again, the inventory of glacial acetic acid production enterprises was low, and the market price rose continuously.
Changes in demand have also had an impact on market trends. In the first half of 2021, the capacity expansion of the PTA industry was obvious, which increased the demand for glacial acetic acid, coupled with the more active export market, providing support for the upward movement of the market. From July to September, most of the downstream products have declined, and the enthusiasm for negotiation under the pressure of the cost of the industry is limited, and the support for the market is weak, but the export market is relatively stable, and there is still some support for the domestic market.
The cost of the market impact is limited, although the raw material methanol has a significant upward trend during the year, but most glacial acetic acid enterprises have supporting methanol preparation equipment, coupled with the wide upward trend of glacial acetic acid, and methanol price difference is larger, so the cost of glacial acetic acid price impact is not obvious.
Prices in the fourth quarter may fall mainly
In October, with the continuous increase of domestic operating load and flat market trading, glacial acetic acid prices continued to fall. From November to December, there are not many glacial acetic acid plant maintenance plans, if there are not many unexpected stops, the overall start of the industry should be maintained at a relatively high level, and the supply side is not strong in supporting the market. The downstream users hold a bearish mentality on the future market of glacial acetic acid, procurement is still cautious, just need to receive goods, the demand side has no good news guidance, so it is expected that the domestic glacial acetic acid market in the fourth quarter the price will fall mainly.