The performance of liquor is unanimously bullish on good institutions, and Luzhou Laojiao has become the largest holding stock of "E Fangda Blue Chip"

Recently, the third quarterly report of the fund managed by E Fund Manager Zhang Kun has been disclosed. As a "100 billion top stream", Zhang Kun's position changes have always been the focus of attention of market investors.

Last year, Zhang Kun made a lot of money because of the heavy position of liquor stocks in a number of funds. After the Spring Festival this year, the liquor sector pulled back sharply, and Zhang Kun once reduced the size of liquor stock holdings. However, from the perspective of the third quarterly report, "E Fangda Blue Chip Selection" once again increased its position in liquor stocks, of which Luzhou Laojiao became its largest holding asset, with a total position of 6.935 billion yuan.

Fund brokers are unanimously optimistic about liquor

According to the third quarterly report of E Fangda Blue Chip Select Fund, its top three holdings of stocks have been re-allocated to the liquor sector, in addition to Luzhou Old Cellar, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye ranked second and third, holding a total market value of about 21 billion yuan for the three liquors.

Overall, Zhang Kun focused on adding food and beverage, Internet, banking and other industries in the third quarter. For the choice of individual stocks, it is "still holding a high-quality company with excellent business model, clear industry pattern and strong competitiveness".

In his view, due to the market's economic and corporate earnings downturn in the next few quarters, as well as policy uncertainty, the stock prices of some long-term excellent listed companies have recently fallen significantly. After this round of decline, the valuation of these high-quality companies has been basically reasonable.

From the perspective of liquor companies that have disclosed three quarterly reports, high-end liquor has generally shown a stable growth trend, the performance of sub-high-end liquor is more elastic, and the net profit of the liquor industry in the first three quarters has increased by 211.92% year-on-year, and the performance of liquor has also doubled.

In the secondary market, in the third quarter of this year, the liquor sector continued its downward trend, and the CSI Liquor Index fell by 11.7% quarterly. Related index funds also performed poorly.

Despite this, the China Merchants CSI Liquor Index Fund continued to significantly increase its position in liquor stocks, and in the third quarter, the fund increased its holdings in Yanghe shares by 24.69 million shares, and the number of shares held increased to 67.04 million shares, ranking the third largest circulating shareholder of Yanghe shares. In addition, the fund also increased its holdings in Guizhou Moutai and Jinhui Wine, with an increase of 2.6768 million shares and 6.8593 million shares, respectively.

For the future trend of the liquor sector, Anxin Fund said that the valuation risk of the liquor sector has been released after a sharp correction, and the emotional suppression has narrowed since September, and the grinding period has gradually passed. The negative expectations of the early market for liquor are heavier, and at present, we can see that the negative expectations of the policy have gradually faded, and it is expected that the liquor in the third quarter is still the most deterministic sector in food and beverage, and it has entered the time point of valuation switching, and the valuation of the liquor sector has entered a reasonable range and has a certain allocation value.

In addition, Cinda Securities also said that the performance of liquor companies in the third quarter shows that the liquor industry is maintaining good development and the industry is booming. The head of high-end liquor companies, such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, inventory is at a low level, and the construction of benign channels has also maintained the stability of the price plate, which is conducive to long-term sustained performance growth.

The performance of large liquor companies has increased significantly

Whether it is fund institutions or securities companies investing in research, it is almost unanimously optimistic that the liquor sector will perform in the later stage. This expectation is ultimately implemented in the overall performance of the liquor industry.

Through the disclosed three quarterly reports, the overall performance of liquor companies has shown a sharp upward trend. Among them, As the "originator of strong fragrance", Luzhou Laojiao achieved operating income of 14.110 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 21.65% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother of 6.276 billion yuan, an increase of 30.32% year-on-year; operating income of 4.793 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 20.89%; net profit attributable to the mother of 2.049 billion yuan, an increase of 28.48% year-on-year.

According to this point of view, the performance of Luzhou Laojiao is significantly better than market expectations, and its performance growth rate is the highest among the top four liquors. In fact, Luzhou Old Cellar, which was once facing the former Wuliangye being far ahead, and then being overtaken by Yanghe shares, once slipped out of the top three Luzhou old cellars may have begun to gradually exert force.

Judging from the three quarterly reports, its operating income and net profit growth rate year-on-year are higher than yanghe shares. Although the rapid development of Yanghe has further squeezed the national aromatic liquor market and further increased the intensity of market competition, this does not affect the industry status and pattern of Luzhou Laojiao.

It is worth mentioning that under the original brand structure, Luzhou Laojiao has begun to develop new product lines and launched Luzhou Laojiao 1952, which is priced at 899 yuan. It is said that the concept of Luzhou Laojiao 1952 comes from the first selection of famous wines, which has a certain historical and brand cultural value and commemorative nature, and strategically belongs to the enterprise complementary and dot-shaped breakthrough products.

In view of how the luzhou old cellar will be laid out in the future, some insiders have analyzed that the next key work of the old cellar in Luzhou should be to use its extensive consumption base and channel advantages to carry out channel integration and market intensive cultivation, mainly promote high-end products to enhance regional competitiveness, and stretch the product structure between various regions, so as to ensure the rapid development of the brand.

It is understood that Luzhou Laojiao's efforts to its high-end wine national cellar 1573 is one of them, in addition, it also attaches importance to the market layout of Luzhou Laojiao special qu, and increases efforts to restore the promotion of the core products of Luzhou Laojiaotouqu and Laotouqu.

The disturbance factors of the liquor market gradually weakened

Since liquor has once again been favored by the capital market, it has shown a completely different trend from the sharp correction in the first half of the year. It is reported that since the end of September this year, the CSI Liquor Index has risen by about 15%.

In fact, the liquor sector has not been smooth sailing from a sharp decline at the beginning of the year to a recent sharp rebound. Just on October 18, the liquor sector as a whole plummeted by 7.86%, the market value evaporated by more than 400 billion yuan, and the daily decline in the stock price of Guizhou Moutai, the leader of liquor, reached 6.1%. Many shareholders have said that the liquor peak season in Guizhou Moutai has fallen sharply, and liquor may really be not fragrant this year.

However, the sharp decline in the share price of Kweichow Moutai was due to the fact that the fund that holds the most Kweichow Moutai in the world, American Capital Group, continued to reduce its holdings in Kweichow Moutai in September. According to recently released position data, the fund held 6.9487 million shares of Moutai in Guizhou in the first quarter, which fell to 5.8232 million shares in the third quarter.

This also means that since the first quarter of this year, the fund has been reducing its holdings in Guizhou Moutai, as the fund with the largest number of shares in Guizhou Moutai in the world, the reduction of the fund has also allowed many investment institutions and investors to follow up on the reduction.

But at present, the valuation of liquor stocks has returned to a more reasonable position. The recent consumption tax problem has had a certain impact on the liquor sector, resulting in a slight correction in the liquor sector when it rises. However, the profitability of liquor is relatively strong, so in the long run, liquor will still grow.

In the future, with the completion of the disclosure of the three quarterly reports, the cardinal disturbance factor may be eliminated. Judging from the monthly data, liquor is still running in the boom cycle, and the high-end liquor boom cycle may be extended, which will be conducive to the improvement of the liquor market in the later stage. Overall, liquor stocks may have a better performance in the fourth quarter of this year.