It's a rare opportunity to keep an eye on this direction

This weekend was generally calm, and basically nothing major happened. At present, the main line direction chosen by the market is new energy and the mass consumption sector that can raise prices, the cyclical plate is affected by the decline in bulk prices, which is relatively weak, and Xiaoyan personally feels that this trend should continue in the future for a period of time.

The three directions of new energy, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and wind power are more optimistic, the valuation of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is relatively high, and the market's expectations for these two industries are relatively sufficient, and the elasticity is slightly smaller.

The valuation of the wind power industry is relatively low, the market is not fully expected to this sector, like the photovoltaic sector has several companies with a market value of hundreds of billions, the market value of the leading companies in the wind power sector is less than 80 billion, if the future wind power smoothly from the cycle to growth, the market value of the leading companies has a lot of room for growth, the elasticity is greater than that of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics.

In the direction of mass consumption, the core logic is still the profitability improvement brought about by price increases, such as beer, dairy products, sweeteners, condiments, melon seeds, yeast, and quick-frozen foods, which have a relatively strong ability to raise prices, and there is a large room for improvement in profitability next year.

However, the short-term prosperity of the consumer industry is still relatively low, and the valuation of most consumer goods companies has not fallen to a particularly cheap level, and Xiaoyan feels that it is more difficult for the mass consumption sector to continue to rise sharply, and it is best for everyone to absorb the layout low.

Liquor

Liquor sector, short-term catalysts are relatively small, high-end liquor dragon two single three quarter revenue and profit growth are only about 10%, lower than the market expectations of 15%-20%, but the high-end liquor dragon two price has been relatively sluggish before, basically reflecting the performance is less than expected.

The overall valuation of the high-end liquor sector is more reasonable, but the industry prosperity is relatively general, the performance growth rate is relatively stable, it is difficult to exceed market expectations, so the short-term flexibility is not large, and it is more suitable for patient investors to layout in the medium and long term.

Real estate industry chain

Real estate industry chain industry, short-term downward pressure on the real estate industry boom is relatively large, building materials, home furnishing leading companies in the third quarter performance are relatively lower than expected, but the industry's long-term concentration of the logic has not changed, short-term performance is not as expected to bring about the pullback but provides long-term buying points.

Like waterproof faucets, paint faucets and hardware faucets in 2018 are basically facing similar situations as now, the overall prosperity of the industry is sluggish, the cash flow of building materials companies is under pressure, the waterproof faucets are pulled back by 45% in 2018, the hardware faucets are down 50% in 2018, the paint faucets are down 30% in 2018, and the valuations of the three companies have fallen back to a range of 10-20 times. In the next three years, the three companies basically ate several times. So it depends on the length of everyone's funds.

Although the three companies in this cycle are still facing pressure on performance, the position of the three companies in the industry's leading boss is more stable than in 2018, and there are basically no competitors in their respective fields, and Xiaoyan is still relatively optimistic about the future development of the three companies. Short-term can be a low layout, but the overall stock price fluctuations of the real estate industry chain will be relatively large, the three companies in 2018 the overall retracement of 30%-50% of the level, we must control the bottom of these positions, do not prematurely reposition.

Automotive related

In addition to these three directions, in the short term, we can also focus on the leading players in the field of auto parts and automotive electronics

Auto parts focus on Tesla industry chain companies, Tesla is currently sitting in the position of the world's leading new energy vehicle big brother, sales are expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend in the next few years, Tesla's position in the field of new energy vehicles is similar to Apple's position in the field of smart phones, Tesla industry chain of high-quality suppliers are expected to follow Tesla to grow together.

Automotive intelligence is also an important direction next year, there are two main areas worth paying attention to at present, one is the intelligent cockpit, one is the vehicle camera, the leader of these two areas Deng Zong also has a layout, Xiaoyan has also shared the corresponding leading companies in the star investment research before, and everyone can also actively pay attention to it.

summary

1. The main line of the short-term market is mass consumption and new energy, new energy continues to be firmly held, and mass consumption can be laid out at a low price

2. The overall prosperity of real estate is relatively low, and there are more pullbacks in related companies in the real estate industry chain, but it does not affect the long-term logic, and it can be bottomed out at a low price

3, automotive intelligence and auto parts are important directions next year, can be focused on.