The long-awaited 13th Chunlan Cup Triple Chess Final starts tomorrow and will be played by China's triple champion Tang Weixing against South Korea's first man Shin Jin-chan.
Before analyzing and predicting the outcome of this competition, let's briefly review the previous 12 Chunlan Cups: South Korea has won six championships, China has won five, and Japan has won only one. Overall, China and South Korea are very close, but in the first five China, only Ma Xiaochun and Zhou Heyang broke into the final twice, and all lost, especially the opponent of the second Ma Xiaochun final was not the nemesis Lee Chang-ho, but Wang Licheng of the Japanese Chess Academy, who always thought that Ma Xiaochun could laugh at the sky, but unexpectedly it was another empty, and the saying of "Chunlan Sorrow" was "born". Lee Chang-ho is very close to the Chunlan Cup, reaching the final four times in total and winning the cup twice, and no one can match it. Among them, in the 5th Chunlan Cup final in 2005, Shi Foli captured Zhou Heyang and won his 17th and final world championship title. The Chinese masters played well in the next seven competitions, winning five of the championship trophies, but the last championship was won by South Korea's Park Tinghuan.
List of champions and runners-up of previous Chunlan Cups
For the outcome of this decisive battle, my analysis is that Xuanzong has a high probability of losing to Xiao Shen by 0:2, for the following five reasons: First, the recent state of Shen Zhenchen is very good. In the past two months, Shin Jin-hyun has participated in a number of domestic competitions in South Korea, including two defeats in the four finals against Park Ting-hwan and Bian Sang-yi, who are ranked second and third in South Korea, to win the four major championship trophies. It can be said that Shen Zhenchen's feel is very good, and he will definitely not be strange. On the contrary, Tang Weixing has few opportunities to participate in the recent competition, and he, who is known as the man of the Samsung Cup, has a dismal record in the recent new Samsung Cup domestic preliminary and failed to qualify. In the latest rating, compared with Shin Jin-jin's 20 consecutive months of ranking first in South Korea, Tang Weixing has slipped to 25th place, which is unprecedented since he became a world champion. In terms of the stability of the game, Shin Shin is much higher.
Second, Shen Zhenchen was fearless of Tang Weixing's wild chess style. South Korean masters have always been belligerent, and Xiao Shen is no exception, but Xiao Shen's strength is that he is belligerent without losing the overall situation. And after experiencing the "lessons" of Ke Jie, Park Tinghuan, Chen Yaoye, etc., Xiao Shen's reckless and impatient chess style in the previous two years has been lost to Java, and his acumen, understanding of AI and coincidence rate have increased significantly. A while ago, he and Bian Xiangyi fought in the GS Cup and Celebrity Battle Finals in South Korea for eight consecutive games, killing the sky in the dark, and finally Xiao Shen won 3:2 and 2:1 respectively.
Shen Zhenchen nine paragraphs
Third, the historical record is in an absolute disadvantage. The two have fought 7 times in history, the first 2 innings are Tang Weixing's kai, but that is several years ago; the last 5 rounds shen Zhenchen returned the 5 consecutive wins, and the winning rate of Elder Tang was only 29%; the last meeting between the two occurred in this year's Weijia League, and Xiao Shen won, during which Tang Weixing had the opportunity to win, but unfortunately failed to seize it.
Fourth, age is not sparing. Born on January 15, 1993, the elder is 28 years and 8 months old, and can definitely be regarded as a veteran in the Chinese Go world, compared with the lively post-zero Xiao Shen, who has lost his energy. Tang Weixing himself admitted that due to the factor of age, the calculation power and control of the second half of the disk were not as good as before. Judging from the history of winning the championship in recent years, since Gu Li won his eighth world championship title at the age of 32 in 2015, only Chen Yaoye won the world championship at the age of 29 in December 2018, and no world series toppers over the age of 28 were produced. Therefore, it is very difficult for Tang Weixing to become a breakthrough.
Fifth, it is not enough. The first two world champions of triple crown tang Weixing have already cut down two of South Korea's leading figures, Lee Sedol and Park Tinghuan, because Lee Lee was already in decline at that time, and Park Tinghuan's heart demon has not removed the chess style of being more afraid of chaotic war. There is a saying in China that things are not three, so it is even more difficult to win for the third time. Looking at the Chinese chess world, no one has been able to beat the three leaders of South Korea on the stage of the World Series final. For example, Gu Li only defeated Lee Chang-ho and Lee Sedol, but played against Park Tinghuan in the final of the Five World Series; Ke Jie won Lee Sedol and Shin Jin-chan, and also did not have the opportunity to compete with Park Tinghuan in the world series final. We very much hope that Tang Weixing can set a new record, but realistically speaking, there is little hope.
Tang Weixing won the Three Star Cup
I have cited many unfavorable factors, of course, not to say that Tang Weixing is hopeless. It should be said that Tang Weixing also has his own advantages, that is, he has a big heart and the temperament of a winner and loser. Tang Weixing's characteristics are ordinary competitions, he may only be able to play six or seven successful powers, but once he reaches the World Series, especially the finals, he may be able to burst out of the flood power. The crisp defeat I mentioned in the title is a brittle defeat of the big score, but the process of each round may be more intense, and if you want Tang Weixing to easily hand over the gun, it is definitely not Xuanzong's personality. In addition, Shen Zhenchen was not yet strong enough to make no mistakes, and if Tang Weixing could keenly catch the fighter, give full play to the chaotic fighting style of fishing in muddy waters, and defeat Xiao Shen, a strong opponent, it was not impossible.
All in all, Shen Zhenchen is in an overwhelming advantage in terms of stability, age, acumen, recent state, historical record and so on, even if Tang Weixing is good at breaking out the power of the flood on the big stage of the final, I always feel that it is inseparable from accurate calculation, excellent state, and bold mentality. Times have passed, and it will not be easy to take advantage of the younger generation of South Korea's leaders.
The above paper analysis is just my family's words. Go is round, and anything can happen before the game closes. Tang Weixing is one of my favorite masters, and I look forward to him creating a miracle of victory like Nie Weiping's original ring match!