In the past two weeks, the daily number of new infections in the UK has been around 40,000. On 28 October, KCL epidemiologist Professor Tim Spector warned that the number of daily infections in the UK could now be close to 100,000.
The latest record data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study App shows that there were 93,371 new infections in the UK in a single day, and the data came from PCR testing and LFT testing data in the past 5 days.
The study, led by Professor Spector, said: "ZOE data shows that the UK may reach 100,000 new cases a day sooner than expected, but there is still no sign that Plan B or Plan C is going to be implemented. ZOE data has consistently been higher than the daily number of cases announced by the UK government as we obtain results from a variety of sources, including results from horizontal mobility tests conducted by people themselves who are not reported by the UK government. The UK government data only reported PCR test results for typical symptoms, missing about 40% of cases. A biweekly survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms our estimates, and it is clear that the figures released by the UK government are grossly understated. ”
The ZOE study also showed that the number of infections continued to rise in the population that had received two doses of the vaccine. The R-value in the UK is estimated to be around 1.1.
In addition, the number of infections in the UK is increasing at all ages, with the highest proportion being in the 0-18 age group. In terms of infection rates, all parts of the UK are high, with the south-west being the most severe.
The report released by ZOE mentions that ZOE infection data is always one week ahead of other surveillance surveys and continues to function as an early warning signal. ZOE reported an increase in the number of cases in the last month, and the latest ONS survey data reflect this trend.
Professor Spector said everyone needed to be vaccinated. He added that data from ZOE show that vaccine protection is weakening and that strengthening the vaccine will further reduce the number of people infected after vaccination. People are advised to wear masks when taking public transportation and to crowded places, and to actively test when they feel uncomfortable.
Why didn't the UK government implement Plan B?
Plan B includes reinstating the rule of wearing masks and requiring people to work from home. Obviously seeing tens of thousands of new infections every day, why has the British government delayed implementing Plan B?
Patrick Valence, the UK government's chief scientific adviser, said the direction of infection levels in the UK was unclear and that two key factors would determine whether to adopt Plan B to control the outbreak.
Patrick Valens said: "In terms of infections, the most noteworthy data is the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) study, which is a more comprehensive statistic. Hospitalization rates are a key indicator if the impact of the pandemic is to be considered. But they are a lagging indicator, and one needs to keep that in mind. ”
He added that immunity and enhanced vaccines will determine the development of the outbreak in the UK.
Asked if the number of infections exceeding 40,000 per day could be handled and accepted, Patrick said: "It's a social issue. He said that maybe every winter will be accompanied by the new crown virus, but as immunity gradually increases, people will be protected and deaths and hospitalizations will decrease, but this has not yet been done.
According to British media reports, the British government is studying a series of factors to determine whether Plan B is needed. The report said no additional measures would be taken unless the NHS was under significant pressure in all aspects of hospitals, emergency rooms and ambulances.