Guohai Securities: Give Yuntu Holdings a buy rating

2021-10-31Li Yonglei and Dong Bojun of Guohai Securities Co., Ltd. conducted a study on Yuntu Holdings and released a research report "Event Review: Profits Continue to Reach New Highs, Accelerate the Layout of New Energy Tracks", this report gives a buy rating to Yuntu Holdings, and the current stock price is 16.02 yuan.

Yuntu Holdings (002539)

event:

On October 29, 2021, the company released the third quarter report of 2021: in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 10.092 billion yuan, an increase of 48.33% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother of 781 million yuan, an increase of 110.68% year-on-year; basic earnings per share of 0.78 yuan, an increase of 110.81% year-on-year.

Investment Points:

Profits have increased significantly, and the control of three fees is excellent

In 2021Q3, the company achieved operating income of 4.008 billion yuan, +71.66% year-on-year, +27.87% month-on-month; and achieved net profit attributable to the mother of 377 million yuan, +110.84% year-on-year, +69.15% month-on-month, close to the upper limit of the previous three quarters of performance forecast. The weighted average ROE was 9.85%, +4.47pct year-on-year and +3.72pct sequentially. Sales gross margin/net margin/expense ratio 21.19%/9.44%/9.95%, +1.05/+2.26/-1.57pct, +0.12/+1.84/-1.92pct. In terms of three fees, the company recorded sales/management/finance expenses of 1.94/5.14/156 million yuan, corresponding to sales/management/financial expense ratios of 1.72%/7.04%/1.20% respectively, and -0.39/-0.87/-0.31pct.

The price and spread of fertilizer products remained high

According to wind, the average price of monoammonium phosphate in the third quarter of 2021 was 2823.37 yuan / ton, the price increased by 49.10% year-on-year, the price spread was significantly expanded to 893.08 yuan / ton, an increase of 46.45% year-on-year, an increase of 20.88% month-on-month; the compound fertilizer price spread in the third quarter improved significantly, the average price of Q3 chloro-based compound fertilizer was 2961.9 yuan / ton, the price increased by 63.92% year-on-year, up 34.23% month-on-month, and the spread was 205.9 yuan / ton, up 153.9% month-on-month. The price of sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 3172.8 yuan / ton, the price increased by 52.65% year-on-year, up 27.91% month-on-month, and the price difference was 106.4 yuan / ton, up 38.7% month-on-month. According to wind, on October 29, the price of chlorine/sulfur compound fertilizer was 3000 and 3200 yuan / ton, respectively, and the price difference was 222 and 163 yuan / ton, and it is expected that with the opening of the autumn fertilizer season, the spread is expected to further expand.

Invest in the Tibetan Youth Fund to accelerate the layout of the new energy track

On October 25, the company issued an announcement on participating in the investment in the Jiangsu Tibetan Youth New Energy Industry Development Fund. The Company intends to use its own monetary funds of RMB 500 million to subscribe to the partnership share of jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund Partnership and become a limited partner of the partnership. The Zangqing Fund mainly invests in the global new energy battery raw material Salt Lake Lithium Mining Enterprise, with a fundraising scale of 5.310 billion yuan, and the company's subscribed capital accounted for about 9.42% of the total share of the fund. On September 3, the company announced that it will use the advantages of phosphorus chemical industry to invest in the construction of 350,000 tons of battery-grade iron phosphate and related supporting projects. This investment in the Tibetan Youth Fund is expected to extend the company's development in the lithium iron phosphate industry chain, so as to form synergy with the company's iron phosphate direction, and further accelerate the layout of the new energy track.

Released the third phase of the employee stock ownership plan, optimistic about the long-term development of the company

On October 15, the company released the third phase of the employee stock ownership plan, the employee stock ownership plan with "shares" as the subscription unit, each share of 1 yuan, the total amount of funds does not exceed 27.4 million yuan, the total number of holders does not exceed 22 people, mainly including the company's alkali, phosphorus chemical two core business performance and the future development of the battery-grade iron phosphate new project has outstanding contributions or important role in the core management backbone and technical backbone. The employee stock ownership plan takes the three fiscal years from 2021 to 2023 as the performance appraisal year, and the performance appraisal is that the company's net profit attributable to the parent reaches 9/9/11 billion yuan. The launch of the employee stock ownership plan highlights the management's confidence in the company's medium- and long-term development and is optimistic about the company's medium- and long-term development.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is a low-cost compound fertilizer leader, and the company's net profit attributable to the mother in 2021/22/23 is expected to be 1.187 billion yuan, 1.473 billion yuan and 1.620 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 14, 11 and 10 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk Warning: The risk of crop loss caused by natural disasters; the risk of repeated fermentation of the global epidemic affecting downstream demand; the large-scale increase in fertilizer supply; the risk of safety and environmental protection; the risk of project construction progress being less than expected.

A total of 8 institutions have given ratings and 8 buy ratings in the last 90 days; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 18.27; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that Yuntu Holdings (002539) has a good company rating of 3 stars, a good price rating of 2.5 stars, and a valuation comprehensive rating of 3 stars.