This October is definitely very much in line with the law of "seven losses, two draws and one earn", and the overall loss effect is obvious.
According to the data of the Tax Bureau, the stamp duty on securities transactions in the first three quarters of 230.2 billion yuan increased by 40% year-on-year, and in this regard, market transactions are quite active, but there is only a trading relationship with investors, and income is not proportional to everywhere.
There is only one more important summary of the bearishness: the sharp fluctuations caused by policy. Starting from iron ore (iron ore and other fights have been unable to stop rising since they broke up with kangaroos, and many products have risen in price, such as beef), after the black series is crazy, the related stocks have risen amazingly. The crazy rise of futures has led to an increase in the losses of enterprises in the relevant industrial chain (supported by the third quarter report), and at the same time, problems in power have also involved all aspects of people's livelihood. By October, the power gap was getting worse. Judging from the quarterly report, the losses of power companies and the losses of aquaculture industry led the city, which is also evidence.
Coal price increases and other issues led to power curtailment, and finally the NDRC gradually returned to normalization after the move, whether this violates the law of the market is unknown, but from the perspective of people's livelihood to understand is to do, administrative means are unavoidable means. After the price of coal tends to be normal, the final result is an increase in electricity prices (which does not involve residential electricity), of course, it also further activates the opening up of the electricity market and promotes the development of wind power and photovoltaic enterprises.
The much-maligned futures market, the dizzying management of exchanges changing various rules.
This October is destined to be unusual, most of the stocks out of the "like a stock disaster" trend, a short period of rapid decline after the contraction of the decline and rebound is weak, the edge of the sector is no sign of rebound. The trading volume of the large market continued to shrink, representing that the tick line of the small and medium-sized board came out of a very weak trend, and the sentiment confidence was low. The big white horse and the small and medium-sized enterprises fell at the same time, and the only thing that is fortunate at the same time is that the funds in the north continue to buy and buy in the moment of panic.
Speaking of quantitative trading, let a lot of value investment trends people suffered, chasing the rise of the board is also hit, I once doubted that it is not suitable for the current market, because the entire market has a tendency to be "played bad", so you will find that the set of stock selection methods suitable for you are at a loss at the moment, so the whole October is very depressed.
The market characteristics in October are obvious, the performance quarter (thunderstorm), power rationing (reality), the sequelae of the futures surge (online), the deterioration of the external environment, the capital side is not loose, etc., all kinds of news superimposed, a bit unsolved.
What happens in November? The big rise on the last day of October will make us a little "overwhelmed", and it is always right to be cautious.
A: On November 15, the media news, the Beijing Stock Exchange was officially launched, when more than 68 companies in the selected layer of the new third board market will all be translated into the Beijing Stock Exchange. 68 ah, equivalent to 68 companies listed on the same day, dare not imagine.
B: In the first week of November, there will be 13 new listings, and the Big Mac China Mobile will be listed.
In October, the reverse repurchase of the central mother's spicy hot scald solved 1 trillion yuan, and the spicy hot that expired in November was the peak of the year to reach the trillion level.
Don't forget the Fed's Taper program.
Other sources, unable to say more.
The North Stock Exchange officially opened, under the Face (Face) Project (Engineering), fortunately, the North Stock Exchange filtered a large number of investors (asset requirements), and this wealth feast was left to the participation of local tycoons. 68 centralized listings, how to freeze funds do not know, for the already great demand for funds of the big A is a short-term bearish, think about the beginning of the science and technology board and now, the main battlefield is still big A. Coupled with the listing of 13 individual stocks plus the listing of China Mobile (combined with the performance of China Telecom and Hong Kong stocks to break the reservation), it is difficult to assess how the market can bear, after all, it is difficult to say that the funds in November are loose (quantitative easing is just another way of saying it).
At the beginning of the year, someone mentioned that this year is a year of wealth harvesting, and now it seems that this is the case in many ways, and the various performances of online and offline have precisely promoted this feast for the stock market to create wealth, and ordinary investors cannot be guaranteed in this regard.
Remember hayek saying: The government cannot print money indiscriminately, because it will lead to a worse economic environment, oligopolization of industry, and the emergence of a financial system or financial enterprise as a privileged aristocracy in society; it turns out that the printing of money over the years often makes the wages of most ordinary people rise far less than the rate of currency depreciation (price increase); and punishing saving leads to no savings, widening the gap between rich and poor; and the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises, the increase in unemployment and the financial system. Together, bubbles in the real estate sector can lead to and exacerbate cyclical depressions in the overall economy of society.
"The roof leaks in the overnight rain, and the boat is late and the head wind is blowing." Will this be a phenomenon brought about by November? Or "there must be a road before the car reaches the mountain, and the boat to the bridge is naturally straight", it will be wait and see.
Personal advice does not constitute any investment advice, but only an exchange of ideas.