Analysis of the development status and trend of Catfish Industry in China
Generation cloud cloud, etc
Fund Project: Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System Special Project (CARS-46); Central Public Welfare Research Institute Basic Scientific Research Business Fund Special Fund Project (2019JBFM08)
In 1984, the spotted forktail catfish was introduced from the United States by the Hubei Provincial Institute of Fisheries Science, and in recent years, the spotted forktail catfish occupies an important position in China's freshwater aquaculture characteristic aquatic products. With the maturity of biological, ecological, reproductive and breeding technology research, spotted forktail catfish began to gradually promote aquaculture in China. Spotted forktail catfish has the characteristics of wide range of suitable breeding, fast growth, large individual, good meat quality and high export rate, and is accepted by the majority of farmers and widely cultivated, becoming one of the main famous aquatic products. The rapid growth of the aquaculture industry has brought about the gradual maturity of the whole industrial chain, forming an industrial chain of fry breeding, adult fish breeding, processing and export supporting.
1 Catfish production in China
1.1 Distribution of catfish aquaculture production in China
Because the sales channels of the domestic and foreign markets have not yet been opened, the production of spotted forktail catfish from 1984 to 2002 is very small. In 2002, the U.S. Department of Commerce ruled that Vietnam's basha fish anti-dumping was established, which brought opportunities to the development of China's catfish industry. Since 2003, China's catfish industry has developed rapidly, and breeding and processing enterprises have spread throughout Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei.
Anhui and other more than 20 provinces in the country, at this time the domestic market demand is limited, the products are mainly used for export in the European and American markets. In 2008, affected by the testing of drug residues and trade barriers in the United States, exports were greatly reduced, and catfish farming entered a trough. With the gradual development of the domestic market, the situation of catfish farming has gradually improved, and the production has increased significantly since 2012, reaching the maximum production of 285,800 t in 2016 and an average annual growth rate of 15.17% from 2003 to 2016.
In the past two years, the state has intensified environmental protection supervision, demolished large areas of illegal cages and breeding fences, and banned a large number of unlicensed, illegal construction, and substandard discharge farms. The significant reduction in the surface of the aquaculture has led to a decline in the production of catfish culture. According to the statistics of China Fishery Yearbook, the total output of catfish aquaculture in China in 2017 was 227,500 t, a decrease of 25.67% over the previous year, and the total output of catfish aquaculture accounted for 0.78% of the total production of freshwater farmed fish in the country, a decrease of 0.12% over the previous year. There are 27 provinces and cities in the country to produce catfish, the main production areas include Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong and Henan 5 provinces and regions, catfish aquaculture output of 67,700, 38,700, 26,600, 16,300, 12,500 t, each accounting for 29.76%, 17.03%, 11.68%, 7.16%, 5.51% of the total national catfish aquaculture output.
1.2 The status of China's catfish farming industry in the world
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT), in 2016, a total of 14 countries and regions produced catfish in the world, with a total production of 459,500 t, an increase of 4.78% over the previous year, of which the aquaculture production was 457,800 t and the capture output was 0.16 million t. The top 5 countries in terms of aquaculture production are China, the United States, Mexico, Russia and Italy, and in 2016, aquaculture production accounted for 67.87%, 31.72%, 0.18%, 0.15% and 0.07% of global catfish aquaculture production (the statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the statistical caliber of the Chinese Fisheries Yearbook in catfish species are different, and there is a certain difference in the statistical value of the production). Global catfish production has changed significantly, with a large increase in production from 2004 to 2007, a decline in production in 2008, a large decline in production in 2011, a low of 383,600 t, and then a fluctuating trend, from 347,100 t in 2003 to 459,500 t in 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 2.18%.
China's catfish production as a proportion of world production is basically rising steadily. In 2003, it accounted for only 12.71% of world production, and in 2008 it rose to 50.22%, more than half of the world's total aquaculture production. From 2014 to 2016, it was basically stable at about 65%.
2 China catfish sales market
Before 2015, China's catfish mainly rely on the international market exports, in recent years, China's catfish exports to the United States has been affected by automatic detention and the "Catfish New Act", exports are not smooth, price fluctuations are very large, with the effective development of the domestic market, catfish turned to domestic sales.
2.1 Domestic and foreign consumption of catfish
In 2012, China's catfish export volume was 3 824.58 t, and in 2014 it reached a maximum of 8 313.65 t, with an average annual growth rate of 47.44% in two years. However, with the turmoil in the international market, especially the restriction of domestic catfish products in the US market, the export volume of catfish began to decline sharply in 2015, with a decline of 34.95%.
In 2017, China exported 5 854.89 t of catfish products, a year-on-year decrease of 2.28%, of which frozen catfish fillets were 4 322.68 t, and catfish made or preserved were 1 532.21 t (converted into raw fish according to coefficients of 2.50 and 1.33 respectively, a total of 12,800 t), accounting for 5.65% of the total output; the domestic market consumption was about 210,000 t, accounting for 94.35% of the total production. At present, catfish mainly rely on domestic market consumption, and the domestic market demand shows a gradual growth trend, the sales volume of the northern market and the southwest market remains at a high level, and the overall supply and market demand remain relatively stable. The domestic fresh catfish sales market is mainly concentrated in the three provinces of Chengdu, Chongqing and Guiyang in the southwest region, followed by small consumer markets such as Xi'an, Xining, Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang. Catfish in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places are mainly used for grilled fish, and the consumption is increasing.
2.2 Situation in the provinces where catfish are exported
Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui and Hunan are the main provinces in China's catfish exports, with exports accounting for 61.15%, 13.83%, 9.96%, 7.31% and 4.36% of the total in 2017, respectively. Since 2016, Guangdong Province has become the largest province in catfish exports, and until 2016, Hubei Province's export volume has been the largest in the country, accounting for more than 50%.
2.3 Catfish export target countries (regions).
From the data displayed by the customs, in 2012, the main target countries (regions) for China's catfish exports include the United States, Canada, Thailand, etc., and in recent years, angola has only increased as an export target country, except for the United States, the export volume of other countries (regions) is not large. The United States accounts for more than 90% of China's total exports, and the dependence of China's catfish on the US market can be seen.
3 Chinese catfish market
3.1 Domestic market conditions for catfish
In recent years, China's catfish market has continued to rise, the rise in fish prices has brought about a rapid expansion of the scale of aquaculture, and the market demand is limited, which has caused a downturn in fish prices. In 2017, the prices of the domestic market and the international trade market fell sharply, and the overall trend of the catfish industry declined. The centralized dismantling of cages in 2017 had a great impact on the price of catfish that year, especially the short-term centralized dismantling of nets in local areas, resulting in a large number of adult fish being listed in a concentrated manner, and fish prices also fell sharply. In some areas, due to the outbreak of diseases, many farmers have suffered significant losses in their farming income. In addition, there is the squeeze on the domestic market share of Vietnamese bass fish, which has caused the price of spotted catfish to decline in 2017.
In 2018, the area of catfish cultured in cages decreased, resulting in a decrease in supply and higher prices for adult catfish. Since the Spring Festival, the pond mouth price of spotted catfish 1 to 2.5 kg has basically maintained a strong trend, between 7.0 and 8.2 yuan, and after September, the price has fluctuated slightly but is still high, about 14.4 yuan / kg. The retail price is about 16 yuan / kg higher than the tangkou price, which is mainly due to the fact that a large proportion of the terminal consumption form of catfish is deep-processed products such as grilled fish, and the retail price of such products is relatively high. Retail prices in the first half of 2018 were slightly lower than the same period in 2017 and higher than in the same period in 2016, and prices continued to rise in the second half of the year, significantly higher than the same period in 2017.
3.2 Cost-benefit analysis of catfish farming
3.2.1 Pond culture costs Pond culture catfish costs 5.3 to 5.8 yuan /500 g (including feed costs, dead fish loss, etc.), of which feed accounts for about 80% of the total cost, fry account for about 5%, pond rent, fishing medicine, water and electricity costs account for about 5%, labor costs account for about 10%. Feed prices are $4,400 to $5,800/t. The price of fry fluctuates with the price of adult fish, in 2014, the price of spotted forktail catfish splash was about 300 yuan / 10,000 tails, in 2016 it rose to 400 ~ 500 yuan / 10,000 tails, in 2017 the splash price plummeted to less than 200 yuan / 10,000 tails, and in early 2018 the price of splashes fell steadily, about 160 yuan / 10,000 tails. As the price of adult fish rises, the price of fry is also gradually rising, and the demand for fry from many farmers has also shifted to a requirement for quality.
3.2.2 Pond culture income In different regions, the output level of spotted forktail catfish varies greatly, basically 500~750 kg, the average pond price in 2018 is 15.6 yuan /kg, the annual output value is 117,000 yuan / 176,000 yuan / hm 2, deducting the loss caused by breeding costs and diseases, the annual income is 30,000 ~48,000 yuan /hm 2.
4 Development trend of Catfish Industry in China
In 2018, the domestic market price of catfish remained high, and the demand for the domestic market increased unabated, which brought hope to farmers, and it is expected that the area and aquaculture output of catfish culture will be further expanded in 2018, with an output of about 245,000 t, an increase of 7.69% over the previous year. Catfish farming area compared with the previous 2015, 2016 has a certain degree of decline, which also prompts the current farmers who still have water surface, from extensive, disorderly breeding concept to scientific, fine breeding concept change, the current catfish is mainly based on pond culture, container culture and facility fishery, is gradually moving towards the road of intensification and refinement.
China's catfish industry has changed from relying heavily on the European and American markets to being dominated by domestic market sales, and has achieved benign transformation and upgrading of the industry. This transformation was achieved by the obstruction of exports in the international market as the fuse, the orderly development and expansion of the domestic market as the premise, and the transportation of fresh adult fish as the guarantee, the most important part of which is the development of the domestic market. Catfish exports are limited, sales channels are not smooth, in 2018 the United States launched a trade war, catfish products included in the tax increase list, the United States set a higher and higher threshold for Chinese catfish products, China catfish products to the United States export growth is less likely, may lead to a further decline in catfish exports. The effective development of the domestic market provides another way for the sustainable development of the catfish industry, but the increase in other alternative fish products in the domestic market has also led to a slow growth in the domestic market demand for catfish, and it is not expected that there will be a big increase in market demand in 2019. The domestic market price of catfish products fluctuates greatly, and the increase in production in 2018 directly brings about an increase in market supply, resulting in the phenomenon of oversupply, and it is expected that the market price of catfish will fall in 2019.
5 Countermeasures
From the development and trend of China's catfish industry in recent years, it can be seen that China's catfish industry is facing many problems such as overproduction, species competition, and severe international environment. To change the status quo, we must start from the aspects of product quality, product form and domestic market, give full play to the advantages of our natural endowment resources and rich labor resources, and gradually improve the market competitiveness of Catfish in China.
5.1 Promote ecological breeding and reduce the occurrence of diseases
The development of aquaculture is inseparable from the health and stability of the ecological environment. In the process of catfish farming, attention should be paid to improving the ecological environment, reducing diseases, promoting the healthy growth of fish, providing guarantees for green and healthy food for the aquaculture industry, and jointly maintaining the ecological balance of the aquaculture industry.
The improvement of product quality also provides a premise for catfish to continue to open up the international market and serves the development and growth of the industry.
5.2 Reasonably arrange production to avoid market risks
The market price of catfish fluctuates greatly, such as farmers blindly adjusting the amount of aquaculture in the next year according to the market price of the current year, and the market risk they face is very large. In the production process, according to their own operating conditions, reasonable arrangements for production planning, to minimize their own impact on market price fluctuations, to avoid market risks.
5.3 Develop catfish processing products to meet people's needs
Under the premise that it is more difficult to increase the export volume of the international market, the development of the domestic market is the only choice. In 2013-2014, the domestic market share of catfish increased significantly, accounting for more than 80% of domestic production, but in recent years, the squeeze of alternative products on the domestic market has led to a gradual decline in domestic sales of catfish. Vigorously developing catfish processing products and opening up the domestic market is the basis for promoting the stable and healthy development of the catfish industry.
