From less than 600 yuan per ton to 2,000 yuan, the past few months, "coal super crazy" is making a comeback. In order to curb the "coal super madness", the National Development and Reform Commission has made successive moves, and recently issued a "price limit order": to study specific measures to intervene in coal prices according to law.
The China Securities News reporter recently learned that the scope of intervention includes the price of thermal coal pit mouth and the terminal sales price. The price of thermal coal pit mouth will be limited by "benchmark price + floating range"。 The method of intervention in the terminal sales price of thermal coal shall be determined by the people's governments at each level on their own。 The price of thermal coal pit mouth is uniformly formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, which is 440 yuan per ton including tax, and the maximum increase is 20%, that is, 528 yuan.
Under the strong deterrence of a series of regulatory policies, the crazy coal market is returning in a reasonable direction. As of the close of the 28th, the main contract of thermal coal futures was quoted at 1051.8 yuan / ton, which was almost "waist cut" compared with the historical high of 1982 yuan / ton set on the 19th of this month. Thermal coal futures have fallen for the seventh consecutive trading day since regulators first signaled intervention in coal prices on October 19. As of the close of trading on the 28th, the A-share coal mining and processing sector fell nearly 7%, and the overall decline in the sector since September 16 has exceeded 20%.
Source: Flush
The footsteps of the "price limit order" are gradually approaching
On the afternoon of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission organized key coal enterprises, the China Coal Industry Association, and the China Electricity Council to hold a symposium on the energy supply guarantee mechanism this winter and next spring to study the implementation of intervention measures for coal prices in accordance with the law.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the current price increase has completely deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand, and near the heating season, prices still show a trend of further irrational rise. The National Development and Reform Commission will make full use of all necessary means stipulated in the Price Law to study specific measures for intervening in coal prices, promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, promote the return of the coal market to rationality, ensure the safe and stable supply of energy, and ensure that the people are warm through the winter.
On October 21, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in order to strengthen the supervision of coal market prices and study specific measures for intervening in coal prices, the National Development and Reform Commission quickly organized local development and reform commissions, key coal production enterprises, trading enterprises and coal-using enterprises to carry out special investigations on coal production, circulation costs and prices, and learn more about the costs and sales prices of coal production enterprises, the purchase and sale prices of coal purchases and sales prices of trading enterprises, the cost of coal circulation, and the purchase prices of coal-using enterprises.
On the morning of October 22, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal enterprises to study specific policies and measures to stop coal enterprises from making huge profits and ensure the long-term stability of coal prices within a reasonable range. The meeting made it clear that in the near future, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission will send a number of investigation teams to the main coal-producing provinces to conduct on-site investigations on the costs and profits of coal production and circulation enterprises, so as to provide a reference basis for studying and determining the reasonable range of coal prices.
On October 24, the National Development and Reform Commission said that on the basis of organizing local cost investigations of coal production and circulation enterprises, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently formed a number of investigation teams together with the Price and Cost Investigation Center to conduct field investigations of key coal production enterprises and circulation enterprises in relevant provinces, providing a basis for determining the reasonable range of coal prices and stopping coal enterprises from making huge profits. The investigation team will conduct a comprehensive investigation of the production costs, profits, output, inventory, prices, etc. of the relevant coal production enterprises in accordance with the law, and conduct in-depth verification of the invoicing prices, circulation costs, profits, and inventory of the circulation enterprises. The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to crack down illegal acts such as price gouging, hoarding, collusion in manipulating market prices, and fabricating and disseminating price increase information found in the investigation.
On October 26, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it was studying the inclusion of coal in the scope of commodities to stop huge profits, and had organized a cost-benefit survey of the coal industry to measure and determine the average price, average spread rate, average profit margin and reasonable range of the coal market under normal circumstances. On this basis, the reasonable costs, normal profits and market changes of the coal industry will be considered as a whole, and a long-term mechanism for coal market prices of "benchmark price + up and down" will be studied and established, and the connection with the market-oriented electricity price mechanism of coal-fired power generation will be strengthened。
On the morning of October 27, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal enterprises to study specific measures for intervening in coal prices. The meeting listened to the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal production enterprises on the current coal market and price situation, and combined with the coal production cost survey organized in the previous period, focused on the relevant measures for intervening in coal prices, including specific issues such as the scope of intervention, intervention methods, price levels, implementation time, and safeguard measures.
On the same day, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held consecutive meetings to invite economic and legal experts, as well as some coal and electric power industry associations and enterprises, to study how to define the judgment criteria for coal enterprises to inflate prices and make huge profits. The meeting listened to the reports of relevant industry associations and enterprises on coal production and operation in recent years, focused on the reasonable price range and profit margin level that should be maintained to promote the coordinated sustainable development of the coal industry and downstream power industries, and focused on the specific identification standards and methods for identifying coal enterprises to inflate prices and make huge profits.
Coal companies have taken the lead in flattening coal prices
While the National Development and Reform Commission is stepping up its efforts to study coal price interventions, a number of coal companies have recently taken the initiative to reduce coal trading prices.
According to market information, in recent days, many coal mines in Datong, Shuozhou, Mengdong, Ordos, Yulin, Tongchuan and other places have taken the initiative to reduce the sales price of coal pits, and the price reduction is more than 100 yuan / ton, and the highest price reduction is 360 yuan / ton.
Recently, the National Energy Group, China Coal Group, Yitai Group and other coal groups have said that during the heating season this winter and next spring, the thermal coal closing price of 5500 kcal of thermal coal launched in the Bohai Rim port is less than 1800 yuan / ton; the closing price of 5000 kcal thermal coal is less than 1500 yuan / ton; the closing price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is less than 1200 yuan / ton; the price of high-calorie thermal coal other than the above coal types does not exceed 2000 yuan / ton.
In addition, Jinneng Holding Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, Lu'an Chemical Group, Huayang New Material Technology Group and other coal enterprises in Shanxi have recently promised that the mouth price of a 5500-kcal thermal coal pit with a calorific value of 5500 kcal this winter and next spring will not exceed 1200 yuan / ton.
The inflection point of coal prices may have appeared
Zhang Ge, deputy general manager of citic futures research department, believes that the joint supervision of coal spot market prices by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Market Regulation will promote the acceleration of coal prices back to a reasonable range.
Changjiang Securities researcher Jin Ning believes that since October, China's "supply guarantee" policy has been significantly upgraded, and the output of coal mines in the producing areas has continued to rise, and the daily output of coal in the country has recently exceeded 11.5 million tons, an increase of more than 1.2 million tons over mid-September. On October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would "study intervening in coal prices according to law", and the market's expectations for high coal prices have cooled significantly. The amount of coal supplied by power plants in eight coastal provinces has also increased significantly. In his view, due to the current comprehensive upgrading of supply assurance and the fact that October to November are usually in the off-season of coal consumption in power plants, it is expected that the recent port coal prices will continue to be under pressure, and the inflection point of coal prices may have appeared.
"At present, with the successive implementation of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, as well as the high-pressure price limit at the policy end, the supply has improved significantly, the price has also dropped significantly, and the price stabilization results are remarkable." Zhao Yongjun, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures, pointed out that since October, the daily consumption of power plants has begun to decline significantly, and the inventory of key power plants in the country has increased by 15 million tons compared with the beginning of the month, and with the end of the overhaul of the Daqin Line, the port inventory has rebounded, and the port coal price is expected to gradually fall.
Editor: Cao Shuai