<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="2" >01, the culprit of the food decline has been found</h1>
How miserable this year's grain merchants are, I believe only people in the industry understand. In previous years, the grain market was a million profits, but this year many people have suffered heavy losses. It is reasonable to say that every year when the green and yellow do not meet the deadline, due to the reduction of the surplus grain in the market, the three major staple grain markets will inevitably usher in a wave of rise.
However, this year has become an exception, the three major staple grains to the green and yellow period has not risen, such as wheat in March and April this year has been hovering around 1.25 yuan, and now rice, corn and ushered in the green and yellow period, but the market has opened a downward channel, can be described as a fall and fall.
Last year, China's grain prices rose by more than 40%, and the market ushered in a sharp rise after the 3 major staple grains were just listed, so the procurement costs of grain merchants last year were higher, and they thought that they could rise again this year, who knew that the price fell again and again.
In particular, corn and rice grain merchants lost more money. Take rice, last year, late indica rice was just listed at 1.4 yuan a catty, but now the private sector has fallen to 1.25-1.3 yuan, after more than half a year of storage, its cost of building a warehouse has greatly increased, resulting in an average loss of 0.15 yuan / catty for grain merchants. Corn is the same, northeast corn fell below 1.3 yuan, but the cost of building a warehouse is about 1.37-1.4 yuan, grain merchants lost 0.1 yuan / catty, many people are not willing to sell.
As of the end of May, grain prices have ushered in 12 consecutive months of increases, and grain prices have risen by more than 43% during the year, especially corn, wheat and soybeans.
Why do international food prices continue to rise and domestic food prices continue to fall? Experts say the culprit of the fall in food prices has been found, mainly because imports break records.
Judging from customs data, in the first half of this year, China imported 84.363 million tons of grain, while in the same period last year, it only imported 58.938 million tons, up 43.1% year-on-year. To know that last year's grain imports also created history, compared with 2019 more than 30 million tons higher, I thought this year will not be so crazy, who knows the import volume is more fierce. It is also such a huge import volume that regulates the price of grain in our country and avoids its continued rise.
From the data point of view, 10.72 million tons of soybeans were imported in June, higher than 9.61 million tons in May, and 48.955 million tons were imported from January to June, up 8.7% year-on-year. Due to the increase in imports of soybeans, coupled with the decrease in consumer demand for feed, the domestic soybean market has declined, and it is expected that imports in the second half of the year may decline.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="23" >02, 190,000 tons of imported corn auction</h1>
The recent corn market can be described as a downturn, Heilongjiang has fallen below 1.3 yuan, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia has also bottomed out about 1.3 yuan, and Shandong has also fallen below 1.4 yuan. Of course, this is still the listing price of the enterprise, the private market is even lower, for traders, today's corn market can be described as a disaster.
At present, there is more rain in the northeast, and the freight rate has risen, but the panic mentality of traders is relatively large, and they have also actively produced grain in the near future, afraid that the next downturn will continue. The market in North China is stable, mainly due to the significant increase in rain in recent days, which has hindered the further decline of the corn market. The southern sales area is cold and cold, mainly due to the increase in import arrivals and the abundant market supply.
Today, the sixth round of import auctions arrived, with 23,000 tons of Ukrainian corn and 174,000 tons of American corn, respectively, and it is expected that corn prices may fall further with the auction of 197,000 tons of imported corn. At the same time, imports of 15.302 million tons of corn in the first half of the year, compared with last year, rose 3 times, which also inhibited the corn market.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" >03, wheat continues to fall</h1>
Recently, the wheat market has also opened a downward mode, and many flour companies in the main production areas have lowered the purchase price, such as the developed western area fell by 0.7 points, the market was 1.278 yuan / jin; huatong noodle industry fell 0.5 points, the market was 1.277 yuan / jin; Tangyin flour fell by 0.5 points, the market was 1.285 yuan / jin; Handan Wudeli fell by 0.4 points, the market was 1.28 yuan / jin; Suqian Wudeli fell by 0.3 points, the market was 1.252 yuan / jin.
Nowadays, the reserves in various places have entered the closing stage, and the volume of noodle enterprises has become sluggish, while medium and large enterprises have stopped one after another, the consumer demand for flour is not high, coupled with the high temperature and high risk of mildew, so the number of enterprise acquisitions is not much, and the purchase is generally under pressure.
As for the next wheat trend, I am afraid it is not too good, but due to the high cost of corporate acquisition, wheat prices will not fall too much. At the same time, 5.37 million tons of wheat were imported in the first half of the year, which was enough to meet the demand for feed wheat and also inhibited the rise in wheat prices.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" >04, rice market</h1>
The recent early indica market is quite OK, the overall price is higher than in previous years, of which wet grain sold 0.9 yuan a catty, dried rice sold about 1.28 yuan, compared to the market price of 1.22 yuan is much higher.
It should be known that in previous years, the early rice market was generally near the market price, and it was difficult to rise too much. It can be seen from the recent temporary storage auction that the market is generally lower than 1.2 yuan a catty, which can also be seen that the price of early rice in previous years has not been high.
Not too early rice market higher, there are still a lot of Chen rice on the market, the recent market is not too good, the private has fallen below 1.3 yuan. Because rice has entered the low season of consumption, and the consumption of rations has weakened, rice sales are sluggish, it is difficult to drive the rise of indica rice in the middle and late stages, and it is best for grain merchants to sell as soon as possible, leaving little time for everyone.