As of today
The chicken industry has been in a slump for 23 months.
Look back at the past two years
The enormous pressure on chicken farmers is still fresh in our minds.
But in any case, the past has become history after all
What we should be more concerned about now is the future
It's the upcoming year of 2022.
If you don't look at specific data, analyze it intuitively
I believe that a large number of farmers will be optimistic about next year's chicken market.
After all, it has been in a slump for two years
However, next year should be good.
But if scientifically analyzed from big data, the results may be completely different.
First of all
The overall poultry capacity is still overcapacity.
According to the statistics of a pinnacle of seedlings on the professional poultry seedling supply platform,
Poultry production capacity is now up 28% compared to pre-plague
(from 9.2 billion to 11.8 billion),
Its Chinese chicken grew by 12.5%,
White-feathered chickens grew by 37.5%,
Broiler chickens grew by 50%.
And, in addition to poultry overcapacity,
Its biggest alternative, the recovery of pig production capacity, also far exceeded expectations.
According to national data,
In the first three quarters of this year, the total output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry meat increased by 22.4% year-on-year.
Among them, pig production increased by 10.8% year-on-year.
therefore
Hog prices have been going down since the beginning of the year,
From about 18 yuan a pound at the beginning of the year to about 6 yuan.
This also greatly reduces the price of chicken products.
Although hog prices have picked up somewhat since September
But it is only maintained above and below the capital protection line.
This situation is not expected to ease until around July 2022.
So
Before Next August
Poultry prices are also bound to be subject to hog prices.
secondly
"Double carbon" policy, feed price increases, etc.,
It will also further increase the cost of aquaculture and exacerbate the pressure on industry operations.
The uncertainty of the pandemic will also continue to affect poultry
Production, circulation, consumption and many other links.
Next year's chicken industry will still be under greater pressure
Farmers should be prepared to deal with the following two aspects.
Strategically
Be prepared for extreme competition in the market.
Such as long-term low gross profit, high cost, high capital consumption, etc.
In addition, powerful breeding enterprises can also take the initiative to change.
For example, on the sales side, new consumption scenarios can be developed
For example, in the sale of wool chicken to chilled, frozen chicken sales
For example, in the process of turning cooked chicken into snack food, dish sales, etc.
Secondly, in terms of tactics, it is necessary to promote the improvement of breeding technology and management innovation
Improve product quality and reduce breeding costs.
Next year's goal is still to be steady
Don't ask for fast and big, let alone gamble on the market.
In general, the poultry breeding industry as a whole will be under serious pressure for a period of time to come.
We must grasp the general trend of industry development,
Adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, and control market risks well.
Don't slap your head on it.
Everyone who has their own views are welcome to leave a message below to discuss Ha