With the gradual completion of the DEMOCRATIC and Republican presidential nomination conferences, the US presidential election will enter the final short -- "close combat", which will be announced more than two months later.
The presidential election is naturally important to China because the U.S.-China game has set a "new record" for nixon, Kissinger, Mao Zedong, and Zhou Enlai since they adopted a policy of engagement, and this new record will continue to be refreshed as voting day approaches.
President Trump has made it clear in a recent reporter's interview that he does not want to do business with China anymore, although the White House trade representatives are still watching every soybean and corn deal bought by Beijing. In other words, in the final stages of the election, there is nothing that Trump does not dare to say, even if he says that "the United States will not hesitate to break diplomatic relations with China", I will not be surprised. For Trump, his fierce fighting courage can kill two birds with one stone: one is to attack the "weakness" of his opponent Biden and threaten voters that if Biden is elected, "China will rule the United States"; second, once elected, because of the tough China policy in the election and the voters' "public opinion authorization" for this tough position, he already has the political chip of "extreme pressure" on China and forced China to make more concessions in the second phase of trade negotiations.
In fact, compared with China, Canada's Trudeau administration is far more concerned about the outcome of the US presidential election than China. Because for China, whether Trump or Biden's China policy is "more severe" is very controversial and there are different analyses.
But, for Trudeau, he longs for Biden to win, more than anyone else. This is not only because the political philosophy of the Democratic Party of the United States is similar to that of the Federal Liberal Party of Canada, and Trudeau and Barack Obama, the endorser of Biden, are "old friends of the contract", but also because Biden's election will bring two important instant solutions to Trudeau.
The first is the solution of the trade war. Biden made it clear that after being elected, the "tariff war" with China will be canceled. That being the case, the tariff war between the United States and Canada will definitely stop, Washington will use the US-Mexico-Canada trilateral agreement to regulate the US-Canada economic and trade relations, coupled with the fact that Biden will improve the relations between the United States and its allies that have been destroyed by Trump, and Canada is not only an ally, but also a neighbor of the United States, Biden is very likely to restore the practice of the US president's first visit to Canada after taking office after winning the election, so that Trudeau can get the Olympic assistance of American friends before the election.
The second solution is the Meng Wanzhou case. If Biden takes office, he will not force Ottawa to continue to push on the Meng Wanzhou case, and the White House will make Huawei pay a huge fine. The release of Meng Wanzhou will make Canada-China relations quickly thaw, which will bring about the recovery of Canada-China trade, and Canada will significantly increase exports to China, which is a "life-saving straw" for Trudeau. The federal government, which has a huge fiscal deficit, will "completely thaw" Canada's economic and trade relations with the United States and China, and the "willow is shining brightly", which is an important turning point for Trudeau to face an electoral disadvantage due to the scandal.
Of course, with the "white-hot" of the US election, countries have become more cautious about the attitude of the United States, so as not to be "settled after the autumn" after the election. Trudeau has asked Cabinet ministers to be careful with their words and deeds on U.S. election issues, especially to avoid attacks and criticisms of Trump, in order to express Canada's "neutral" stance on U.S. elections. It can be said that Trudeau is not worried about the opposition party launching a "vote of no confidence", but is more concerned about the outcome of the ELECTION in the United States, and he hopes that Biden can save his own political fate.
In other words, as long as the opposition party's downfall and the federal election can drag through the US presidential election day on November 3, Trudeau will be sure. However, there is one thing Trudeau absolutely does not want to see, and that is the success of Trump's re-election. Once Trump is re-elected, Trudeau and Fang Huilan will "soften", Canada-US relations will not be smooth, and Canada-China relations will be difficult to unravel, because Trudeau cannot avoid becoming a "pawn" in the US strategy toward China.
This article represents only personal views and does not represent a highly visible position.
Author: Ding Guo
Edit: Eric
Producer: Highly visible
WeChat: RiseDaily