This week (10.25 to 10.29), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rushed higher rapidly at the beginning of the week, "diving" fell in the middle of the week, and stopped falling and counterattacked over the weekend.
Specifically: Monday's low open high, steady upward movement throughout the day, the daily K line recorded a mid-yang; Tuesday's inertia rushed higher after diving; Wednesday and Thursday weak shock downwards; Friday's stop fall to rise, the volume rose. Throughout the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2%.
In terms of industry sectors, coal, steel, nonferrous metals, chemical fibers are all extinguished, and the capital escape is obvious; while the photovoltaic, wind power, green power and new energy vehicle industry chain continues to be chased by funds without brains; medicine, medical care, food and beverage stabilization is obvious, repeated shocks to consolidate the bottom; large finance (banks, securities, insurance) continue to languish.
Shanghai Composite Index One-Week Tick Chart
Looking at the market movements throughout the week, we found some positive signals in the market, specifically:
1. At present, the entire market funds focus on the theme of carbon neutrality and carbon emissions. On Friday, the lithium battery concept traded 210.4 billion yuan, the photovoltaic transaction 200.3 billion, plus wind power, energy storage, and electrical equipment, etc., accounting for almost half of the turnover of the two cities.
Market participants will interpret the structural market characteristics to the extreme, in the absence of external intervention, and basic reversal, the hype of this theme will most likely continue, but this has been out of the investment category, complete expectations and trading rise.
And the trading upswing, its premature death may occur at any time, I mean carbon neutrality this theme is not cost-effective or not very good.
2. In terms of northbound funds, in the 5 trading days this week, only Wednesday (10.27 days) sold 3.043 billion yuan net, and the remaining 4 days net bought 895 million, 845 million, 7.172 billion and 4.739 billion, respectively. The cumulative net purchase of 10.670 billion yuan throughout the week, and the market as a whole was dominated by declines this week. Looking at the long term, the net purchase of northbound funds throughout October was about 33 billion. This means that the funds in the north are taking advantage of the opportunity to absorb chips at a low price, and they are optimistic about the trend of A-shares in the future.
Northbound funds
3, liquidity, this week's 5 transactions, the open market has a daily reverse repurchase of 200 billion, Monday and Tuesday due funds of 10 billion, Wednesday to Friday due funds of 100 billion, that is, the whole week net investment of 680 billion. To be reasonable, in terms of stages, liquidity belongs to the category of abundance, while the stock market does the opposite, which means that the nature of this week's decline belongs to the nature of washing, rebalancing and stock exchange.
4, from the perspective of market psychology, after the bottom of 3518 on September 29, it rebounded, and then fell back to the previous low (3518 points) near October 12 and 13 again after being pulled back twice, followed by a slow upward attack for half a day, the moving average was repaired, the market gradually picked up in this slow rise, and many funds followed the trend. At this time, all participants in the market believe that the stock index is about to accelerate, especially after the Changyang on Monday (10.25th), including myself. There is a problem here, that is, there are too many floating chips, the expectations are too consistent, and only violent and ferocious washing can achieve the purpose of cleaning floating chips, so I repeatedly emphasized on Thursday and Wednesday that there is limited room for decline here, and the decline is only a little larger than the strength of the washing.
After the decline from Tuesday to Thursday, many people lost confidence in the market during the Thursday night and Friday morning sessions, and the rally came as expected. At the moment, hesitant and cautious investors still think that this is a technical rally, and there will be a new low next week, when the entry opportunity is the opportunity, but then the main force or directly upward, and I think this is a high probability event.
Weekly candlestick chart of the Shanghai Composite Index
5, technically, the large form, since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index is actually a large box oscillation, the upper edge of 3731, the lower edge of 3330, and this box in turn to 3500 as the dividing line, the formation of two small boxes, that is, 3330 ~ 3500 and 3500 ~ 3731. The current Shanghai Composite Index is located on the lower edge of the previous box, and its support is obvious to all.
In terms of moving averages, 5-week, 10-week and 20-week are arranged messily, but the weekly closing is near the 20-week year, which can be regarded as a 20-week moving average has a bit of entanglement, the 5-week moving average is up, the 10-week moving average counter-pressure index, and the market volatility space is getting smaller and smaller.
Without personal preference, it can go up and down here, but combined with the future performance vacuum period, the year-end meeting is more expected, and the 60-week moving average is beautifully upward at a 45-degree slope, individuals are more inclined to oscillate upwards, the center of gravity is slowly moving up, and the structural market continues.
In terms of the Gem, since the week of September 10, the yang is more and less yin, the lows are constantly rising, the highs are constantly being refreshed, and with the perfect upward volume, the pullback shrinkage, it is obvious that the upward trend is good, and the bulls are dominant. In terms of moving averages, the 5-week golden cross 10-week moving average, the 20-week moving average flat has downward signs, the weekly closing station on the 20-week moving average, then the ChiNext here is either rapidly upward, the weekly K-line level on the moving average forms a bullish acceleration, or here time to change space, but regardless of that trend, it is beneficial for the bulls, in other words, the ChiNext board continues to oscillate upward is a high probability event.
Comprehensive analysis, in the weekly time unit, the upstream resource class fell back, the performance improvement of the middle and downstream can be expected, and the macro fundamentals still belong to the upward cycle, blocking the downside space. Northbound funds continue to net buy, the main funds phased cleaning floating chips or has been completed, superimposed technical shock upward is a high probability event, next week, A-share market or should be optimistic.
(The article is a traceable investment idea, for reference only)
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