The Paper's reporter Yan Songyang
On 30 and 31 October, the 16th G20 Summit will be held in Rome, Italy.
G20 members, which include both developed and developing countries, account for about two-thirds of the world's total population and about 80% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP), play an important role in global politics and economy.
Compared to the G20 Osaka Summit in June 2019, the world has changed dramatically two years later. At the first G20 offline leaders' summit after the OUTBREAK OF COVID-19, can countries make progress on issues such as climate change, fighting the pandemic, and post-pandemic economic recovery?
On October 28, local time, in Rome, Italy, the main venue of the G20 Leaders' Summit - the Rome Convention Center. Xinhua News Agency Photo
Is there a consensus on climate issues?
The 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) will open in Glasgow, UK, on 31 October. In this context, the outside world is also very concerned about what kind of statements and commitments the G20 summit will make on climate issues, and the Associated Press even called the G20 summit the "prologue" of COP26.
G20 countries account for 70 to 80% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In 2015, countries committed themselves to limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to doing their best to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, adopted by the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21).
But G20 countries set different targets and timelines for reducing emissions. Brazil, for example, will end illegal deforestation by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2050. Russia is considering the possibility of setting a net zero emissions target for 2060. India is the world's third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, but has yet to announce plans for when it will become carbon neutral. The EU aims to reduce carbon emissions by 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels and to be carbon neutral by 2050.
According to a report released by the Boston Consulting Group in July, countries have also set emission reduction targets in different ways: some have issued policy documents, some have made legislative recommendations, and some have already adopted legislation to set targets.
The level of economic development and energy structure of different countries is different, and how to reach a consensus on emission reduction is also a major problem. India, for example, has yet to announce carbon neutrality targets, but the country says it is more important to design pathways to reduce emissions. Although India has high carbon emissions, according to a report by energy consultancy Enerdata, in 2017, India had the lowest per capita greenhouse gas emissions among G20 countries, with the highest countries being Australia, Saudi Arabia, Canada and the United States. Australia, which is highly dependent on coal, only announced on October 26 that it plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, but insisted that it would not phase out fossil fuels.
According to the draft summit communiqué disclosed by Reuters, Desche Press, Bloomberg and other media, delegations stressed the need to control the goal of warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius, but have not yet agreed to commit to a specific time limit for reducing emissions, that is, to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions or carbon neutrality by 2050. Countries have also pledged in the draft to significantly reduce methane emissions by 2030 ( the second largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide ) , but no agreement has been reached on a "2030" deadline.
The draft also promises to "largely decarbonise" the power system in the 2030s and stop using public funds to build new offshore coal power plants by the end of the year. The draft also said that countries will try to avoid building new coal-fired power plants in the country, but will also consider "the situation of each country".
In addition to emission reduction targets, there is also great concern about the implementation of climate finance commitments in developed countries. At the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, developed countries pledged to provide at least $100 billion a year to developing countries by 2020 to help them meet the challenge of climate change. In 2015, developed countries agreed to postpone the target to 2025, and some developing countries and climate activists criticized developed countries for not doing enough. Reuters commented that climate funding would be one of the toughest issues at the summit.
On October 28, local time, in Rome, Italy, a reporter walked past a sign in the media center of the G20 Summit. Xinhua News Agency Photo
How is COVID-19 vaccines distributed equitably?
There are huge inequalities in the global COVID-19 vaccination process. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) published an article on its official website on October 27, citing data from airfinity, a scientific information analysis company, saying that G20 countries receive 15 times the per capita dose of COVID-19 vaccine than sub-Saharan African countries (excluding G20 member South Africa). Specifically for countries, Canada received a per capita dose 34 times higher than Sudan, and Japan received a per capita dose 18 times higher than Ethiopia... While there are various bilateral and multilateral mechanisms to help deliver vaccines to low-income countries, the "immunization divide" has not been bridged.
48 UNICEF ambassadors and supporters in Africa recently signed an open letter urging "well-supplied countries" to deliver the previously promised vaccines as soon as possible. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also recently called on G20 countries to "live now" to share vaccines.
AFP said countries are expected to make commitments on COVID-19 vaccines at the G20 summit, but Italy also wants countries to provide more help to low-income countries. Emma Ross, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "International solidarity is very lacking in the face of COVID-19. She believes that the Group of Seven (G7) has not successfully tackled this problem, so everyone is focusing on the more widely represented G20 and hoping that the G20 will increase investment.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in an interview with the BBC ahead of the summit that "leading countries should do more to help poor countries get vaccines so we can defeat the outbreak together." ”
How will the economy recover after the epidemic?
At this summit, post-epidemic economic recovery will also be an important issue, which not only involves economic growth, but also energy, supply chain, taxation and other aspects.
The post-pandemic global economic recovery is likely to be uneven. According to Xinhua News Agency, the International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook report predicted that output in advanced economies will return to pre-COVID-19 forecast levels in 2022 and will slightly exceed pre-pandemic forecasts by 2024, but most developing countries will still be 5.5% below pre-pandemic forecasts by 2024.
On the other hand, the recent rise in global energy prices and supply chain disruptions have affected the post-epidemic economic recovery and the daily lives of residents. Electricity prices in some European countries have soared, U.S. ports have been "blocked" with goods, and global chip shortages have affected production in multiple industries...
U.S. President's National Security Adviser Sullivan said that U.S. President Joe Biden's visit focused on issues such as supply chains and energy prices. The United States had previously asked the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase production, but it was rejected. Russia is the most important source of natural gas in the EU, and russia and Europe have recently made accusations against each other because of natural gas price issues, but Putin will not attend the G20 summit offline this time, which may not be conducive to Russia and Europe to discuss energy issues. However, Putin has asked Gazprom to increase gas supply to Europe on the 27th local time.
Leaders are also expected to express support for the global tax reform agreement. At the G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in July, countries expressed support for the global tax reform proposed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This reform includes redistributing the right to tax the profits of multinational corporations and establishing the lowest corporate tax rate in the world. According to the OECD's official website, as of October this year, more than 130 countries and regions have supported this reform.
On October 7, 2021, local time, In Rome, Italy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived in Rome for a "farewell visit" to Italy. Pictured is Merkel meeting with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. People's Vision Diagram
New faces and farewells
Bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, both inside and outside the G20 venue, is also a major priority.
The summit will be the first offline meeting between the leaders of the four countries after the United States, Britain and Australia reached a new trilateral security partnership, "AUKUS", and Australia teared up the submarine deal with France. U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have arranged bilateral meetings, but it is unclear whether Macron will meet alone with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Rome. Whether the United States, Britain and Australia can repair the relationship with France that has been damaged by the submarine dispute is worthy of attention.
In the important multilateral diplomatic occasion of the G20, a new group of faces will make their debut, and some old faces are about to leave. South Korean President Moon Jae-in is about to step down next year, and this time it will be his last G20 summit; it can also be said that Merkel's last G20 summit, media reports say that she will bring her current deputy prime minister and finance minister Schoarts, who is likely to succeed her, to participate in bilateral meetings with other leaders; Brazil and France will hold general elections next year, and the re-election prospects of presidents Bolsonaro and Macron are still unclear.
The G20's "newcomers" include U.S. President Joe Biden, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, but kishida chose to stay home because Japan will hold house elections on October 31. Argentine President Fernandez, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Michel, who participated in the G20 online summit last year, will be their first offline appearance this year.
According to the announcement of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, President Xi Jinping will attend the 16th G20 Summit of the G20 leaders in Beijing by video and deliver an important speech, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will attend the meeting in Rome as President Xi Jinping's special representative.
In addition to Putin and Kishida, Mexican President Lopez and Saudi Arabian King Salman will not come to Rome.
Climate, the fight against the epidemic and the economy will dominate the summit, while issues such as the situation in Afghanistan, the Iranian nuclear issue, WTO reform, online social platform regulation, and combating terrorism are also expected to be discussed during the summit.
Editor-in-Charge: Zhang Wuwei
Proofreader: Ding Xiao