The 10 new materials rose and fell frequently, and the recycled PP as a substitute also rose and fell. However, as of the end of this month, the downward trend of new materials is large, the price difference between new and old materials has dropped to less than 1,000 yuan / ton, and the shipment of recycled materials is almost delayed. Under this pattern, how will the price of regenerative PP be transmitted?
In October, the new material rose and fell frequently, and the recycled material adjusted accordingly
In October, the PP new material offer experienced a sharp adjustment in the market, forming a positive guidance for the recycled material offer. After the National Day holiday, the new material PP spot market was driven by futures to chase up the quotation, and the center of gravity rose significantly, of which the first working day after the T30S festival rose by 625 yuan / ton to 9400 yuan / ton. The spread between the new and old materials opened rapidly, and the spread widened to 1800-1950 yuan / ton after the holiday, hitting a new high in the past five years. Driven by this, the mainstream offer of regenerated PP white transparent particles quickly followed the rise, and the first working day after the holiday was raised by 600 yuan / ton to 7600 yuan / ton.
After the middle of the month, the new material reported a high decline, and the recycled material slowly followed the decline. After entering the middle of the year, the price of new materials was lowered, and the price of recycled materials continued to be high under the support of tight supply and high costs. However, after entering the second half of the year, the new material fell significantly, as of today's new material offer fell by 1100 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, and the price difference between the new and old materials has been compressed to less than 1000 yuan / ton. The high price of recycled materials is unsustainable, and the price has also been lowered. As of today, the recycled PP white transparent particles have been lowered to 7450 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.
The spread narrowed sharply at the end of the month The regenerative market has no market
At the end of the month, the price difference between PP new and old materials has narrowed significantly, and the decline of new materials has not stopped, and recycled materials have shown a valuable and marketless pattern. Recycled polypropylene and new materials are substitutes for each other, and the price of the two has a strong linkage. Usually, the reasonable price difference between pp new and old materials is 1000-1500 yuan / ton, but the current inventory is mostly the production of high-priced raw materials in the early stage, and the decline of new materials has not stopped, so the intention of regeneration enterprises is to temporarily stabilize and cautiously wait and see. At the end of this month, the spread narrowed to less than 1,000 yuan / ton, in this case, the product factory greatly reduced the purchase of recycled materials, resulting in a near delay in the transaction of the recycled PP market.
The linkage between the new and old material spreads has a lag The short-term regenerative PP offers may continue to decline
The price linkage characteristics of PP new and old materials are mainly manifested in four aspects. First, under the usual market, the price adjustment of regenerated PP is 2-3 weeks behind the new material, that is to say, when the new material PP continues to increase or fall in price for 2-3 weeks, the regenerated PP will start the price adjustment market. Second, when the new material produces a large fluctuation, the performance of the recycled material is more cautious, which is reflected in the lag and the amplitude of the rise or fall are much smaller than the new material, resulting in a widening of the price difference. Third, when the new material maintains a stable small continuous rise or fall trend, the enthusiasm of the recycled material to rise or fall is higher. Fourth, in general, the enthusiasm for following the rise is significantly higher than the enthusiasm for the fall, which is reflected in the faster reflection speed of the rise, and the transmission speed is slower under the support of cost when falling.
It can be seen through the linkage characteristics of the price difference between PP new and old materials that the conduction speed of recycled materials in the downward stage of new materials is slower. At present, the price difference between new and old materials is within 1,000 yuan / ton, and there is almost no low-price advantage of regenerative PP, so there are still downward expectations in the short term. Or after the new material stops falling and stabilizes, the pressure is further transmitted upwards, and the granular offer is reduced after the purchase of upstream raw materials at a reduced price. In view of the short-term tight supply situation in all links, the price decline will be smaller than the new material, it is expected that at 300-400 yuan / ton, the recycled PP white transparent particles will be lowered to 7050-7150 yuan / ton.