"Dematerialization has become the first priority of housing enterprises, although the real estate market has experienced a short recovery stage, but now the market heat is steadily declining."
This is the remarks of Ding Zuyu, the boss of E-House, in a recent article, although there is only a short sentence, but we can interpret two meanings from it: First, at this stage, the volume of commercial housing transactions shows a downward trend, as of September, the inventory of commercial housing in 100 cities across the country reached 601.69 million square meters, an increase of 4% month-on-month, that is to say, many houses have not been sold; secondly, the deindustrialization cycle has been extended, such as Beijing, Guangzhou for more than 1 year, Taiyuan, Dalian, Shenyang and other cities are more than 2 years - this means that for housing enterprises How to sell the house as soon as possible has become an urgent problem to be solved.
In fact, at the 2021 interim results investor meeting, real estate tycoon Sun Hongbin used two words to describe the real estate market in the second half of the year: tragic. Mainly from two aspects, the first is that some housing enterprises are forced by financial pressure, in order to reduce debt as soon as possible, have begun to reduce prices to sell houses, however, this is not conducive to the long-term development of the market, especially after the market is good, will still choose to raise prices; the second is that the regulation and control efforts are not reduced, buyers are expected to gradually lose confidence in price increases, sales began to decline, and the pressure was even greater.
In this regard, the author believes that funds are an important basis for the survival of housing enterprises, and as of the first half of 2021, in the structure of housing enterprises' funding sources, personal mortgages and bank loans are important ways for housing enterprises to obtain funds, accounting for about 30%. At the same time, compared with bank loans, the funds obtained through the sale of houses not only have no interest, but also faster, especially in the environment of the central bank tightening loans, whether it is large and medium-sized banks or small banks and rural commercial banks, the proportion of real estate loans has been capped, the highest is 39.5%, and the lowest is only 28%.
Expert advice: It is not recommended to buy a house with a monthly salary of less than 7,000 yuan. Home buyers: The data should be combined with the actual situation.
It is undeniable that in addition to living, buying a house is more for the corresponding supporting resources, such as children going to school, children marrying need to use the house, and the reality is that for most ordinary families, buying a house is not a simple thing. Taking the data of the National Bureau of Statistics as an example, the national sales of commercial housing in September were 1574.8 billion yuan, the sales area was 161.39 million square meters, and it was calculated that the unit price per flat was 9757 yuan, that is to say, the total price of a house was about one million, in addition to the down payment, at least about 3500 yuan of mortgages had to be borne every month.
Speaking of this, it seems that the view of financial expert Ye Tan is still reasonable, in addition to the mortgage, there are car loans and daily basic expenses, if the monthly salary is less than 7,000 yuan, it is indeed difficult to maintain life. However, the author believes that data calculation should be combined with reality, and in many cases, buying a house is the only way for many families.
However, there are also experts who have put forward a different view, they believe that house prices are not high. For example, according to statistics, the current national house price-to-income ratio is 12.9, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, that is to say, in the absence of any expenses, buyers need about 12.9 years to buy a house in the city, some people may say, this time is not long, so the domestic house price is not high, is this really the case?
Obviously, the answer is no, according to international practice, when the house price income ratio is between 3 and 6 is a reasonable level, and according to institutional statistics, in the statistics of 100 large and medium-sized cities in the country, the house price income ratio of most cities is distributed in the range of 10 to 20, of which the highest reaches 41.6, from which it can be seen that the gap between the cities is still very large, if the daily expenses are also taken into account, the time to buy a house may be further extended.
In fact, from the beginning of the first housing reform, the house has become a commodity in circulation in the market, over time, in order to offset the impact of inflation, many people have their eyes on the house, have the idle funds to have investment properties, but this not only indirectly promotes the house price, but also led to the situation of high housing vacancy rate, for example, according to the prediction of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, the domestic housing vacancy rate is conservatively estimated at more than 20%, of which the third and fourth-tier cities may be higher because of population outflow, so the housing vacancy rate may be higher.
This can also be seen from the central bank's statistics, in the survey of more than 30,000 urban households in the country, it was found that 41.5% of them own two or more houses, which means that in addition to one house for living, at least one house is vacant, which indirectly promotes the change of the property bubble.
In order to stabilize the real estate market and solve the bubble problem at the same time, there is also recent news that the pilot work of the property tax is about to begin, for five years, which also means that for people who hold multiple apartments, the cost of holding property every year is bound to increase, which is worth paying attention to. Speaking of this, the author also remembered a sentence by Wu Xiaoling, former deputy governor of the central bank, that the days of carnival in the bubble are running out, and we are ready to burst.
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