Guide: Those who understand the overseas hedge fund industry have heard of the Eurekahedge award, in the field of global hedge funds, Eurekahedge is the highest honor for asset managers, and its influence exceeds the domestic "Golden Bull Award". More importantly, Eurekahedge awards only one asset manager to all strategies, and it can be said that the winning asset managers are the elite of the elite.
In the latest Eurekahedge Awards of the Year 2020, we saw the only greater China Best Hedge Fund award given to Ivy League Assets. When it comes to Ivy assets, many people in the industry know that this is an outstanding hedge fund in China, but most people do not know much about Ivy. We also recently visited Ivy's investment research team to unveil their mysterious "veil".
The core members of Ivy Assets are all self-operated from Everbright Securities, including founding partners Huang Yong and Jiang Yu, and Dr. Cheng Dinghua, a macro strategy master who joined later. We believe that there are some differences between the investment and research framework of Ivy assets and mainstream asset management companies. First of all, Ivy Assets is one of the few domestic private equity funds that come from overseas hedge funds, and they have a strong overseas perspective. Secondly, Ivy Capital, a subsidiary of the Ivy brand, has strong primary market VC/PE research resources, and forms a cognitive synergy effect by sharing primary market research resources. Third, and most importantly, Ivy Asset's investment research team and customers are very stable, which makes Ivy Assets conditioned to be a "friend of time.". Even in the worst years, ivy assets' customer redemption rates are no higher than 5%.
Over the past 10 years of investment cycles, Ivy Assets (Overseas), which has an annualized rate of return on fees of more than 22%, has won the Aisa Hedge Award in the past decade, not only ranking the top three in Asia for fund performance, but also winning the Eurokahedge Best Greater China Hedge Fund award again in 2020.
So, how do you get the return on investment in Ivy Assets? We believe that there are two important points, the first point is that Ivy assets have a long "duration" due to the relative stability of customers and the liabilities, and have been starting from the long term in investment and research. When they look at a company, they judge around the company's endgame. The second point is that Ivy strictly controls the stock pool for research at 150, and the turnover rate of the stock pool is between 20-30% per year. They believe that they must focus on the three major areas of science and technology, consumption and medicine that they are familiar with. Every year, every investment researcher only needs to contribute 1-1.5 effective investment opportunities. Among the holdings of Ivy Assets, 20% of the top ten positions have been held since its establishment in 2012 and belong to ultra-long-term shareholding institutions.
Ivy Assets is also good at grasping demographic changes when studying the company's endgame. Once the demographic structure changes, it is irreversible and represents a medium- and long-term trend. For example, when they were heavily invested in K-12 education stocks, they found that the newborn baby population in the first-tier cities of Beijing and Shanghai had a huge jump after 2000, behind which was the general trend from urbanization, which meant that the company's corresponding potential market size suddenly increased several times. Similarly, they are also not so optimistic about the high-end infant milk powder sought after by the market because of the cliff-like decline in the long-term population.
Below, we first share this interview with several partners from Ivy Capital, and we will launch a single fund manager interview with them in the future, so stay tuned!
1. We started as a hedge fund, and when the fund product was first established, it was an overseas dollar hedge fund product, so our starting point was an internationally minded asset management company
2. Our overseas hedge fund has an annualized return on deductions over the past 10 years of about 22%, an annualized return of about 26% before the fee, and our net position is only 50%
3. Our assessment cycle for internal investment and research is very long, and the company must stand in the dimension of more than 3 years
4. Our stock pool is strictly controlled at 150. Every month we update our stock pool, and if we want to add a new stock to the pool, we must exclude an old stock
5. Ivy Assets' fund managers have about 20 years of investment experience, in the investment we have been constantly doing subtraction, many opportunities that do not meet our investment framework, do not grasp. Over the past few years, we have focused on three major directions: technology, medicine, and consumption
6. We will grasp the future industry track from the changes in economic structure and demographic changes. I think in the foreseeable next 5-10 years, technology, medicine, and consumption will still be the better tracks
7. (On why heavy warehouse K-12) We looked back at the birth rate in Shanghai from the time dimension of 2010 and found that the number of newborn babies in Shanghai and Beijing in around 2001 was about 50,000 each, which was a low point. And at that time, we had already seen the birth rate begin to rise, and it was expected that Shanghai and Beijing would grow to a level of about 200,000 (in fact, Beijing exceeded 200,000 later, and Shanghai did not exceed). Behind this is precisely the trend of urbanization after 2000
8. From the perspective of demographic structure, the decline in the birth rate is an irreversible thing. Probably by 2025, the number of new births will drop by nearly 10 million from 1753 in 2017. This means that the market size of the infant formula industry will fall by half
9. When we study companies, we study the end of the company
Chinese hedge funds from an international perspective
Zhu Ang: Can you first talk about the history of Ivy League assets?
Ivy Asset Management Our start-up partners are all from the proprietary department of Everbright Securities, including Huang Yong, Jiang Yu, and later Dr. Cheng Dinghua. Another partner, Shi Haihui, was cultivated by Ivy League Assets. Our investment culture has a relatively deep brand of broker-owned business, and it is also the first team in the market to do absolute returns.
In terms of investment methods, our three fund managers Huang Yong, Jiang Yu and Shi Haihui all belong to the bottom-up stock selection style, Dr. Cheng Dinghua has a strong ability to control top-down macro strategies, and was once one of the most well-known strategic analysts in the Sell-Side Research Institute. The partners of the team have known each other for a long time, and the establishment of investment methods is also a bit of a traditional mentoring system.
Over the years, the investment framework of several of us has basically not changed much. Our common investment philosophy is to find good companies in the good industry. The difference between fund managers is the weight given to the track, some people will put the weight of the track higher, and some people will put the weight of the good company higher.
Zhu Ang: What is different about Ivy Assets compared to other asset managers?
Ivy Assets We have three differences:
1) We started as a hedge fund, when the fund product was first established, it was an overseas dollar hedge fund product, so our starting point is an international perspective of asset management company, from a global perspective to do Chinese asset investment, and is not limited to the A-share market. At the same time, because hedge fund products have higher requirements for drawdowns, we will pay more attention to net value drawdowns than most asset managers in investment.
2) We are one of the few asset management companies that contributes to primary and secondary research results in research. Ivy Capital, a subsidiary of the Ivy brand, is a primary market VC/PE institution with a long history, which can bring synergies to secondary market equity investment. Our synergy with the primary market business comes from two aspects. The first aspect is the product customer, our products are all direct sales customers, and many VC/PE customers have also become customers of our secondary market equity products. The second aspect is cognitive collaboration, our VC/PE business mainly focuses on the SaaS business of the 2B side, which has brought great help to our investment in cloud service enterprises in the secondary market in recent years. We are an asset management company in the market that is one of the earliest A-share heavy cloud service enterprises. Businesses that have also bought cloud services in Hong Kong and the U.S. have helped us a lot in our return on investment over the past few years.
3) We have built a team with strong combat effectiveness and stability over the past decade. The stability of our team is very good, since its inception, a total of 15 investment researchers have been recruited, in fact, 11 are still in our company today. Such a retention rate should be relatively high among asset management companies. Our researchers are mainly self-trained, and many of them have their first job in the financial industry is Ivy League assets. Even the two partners of our company, Jiang Yu and Shi Haihui, first worked with the company's partners Huang Yong and Cheng Dinghua to make investments. We have a strong training system, through their own training, can establish a unified investment and research concept and company culture.
Ivy Assets not only practices the concept of long-term investment in investment, but also adheres to the long-term concept in team building, and our investors also adhere to the concept of long-term investment. Our clients are long-term owners of our products, they know how we invest, and they believe in the long-term effectiveness of our investment framework. Even in our worst performing years, our clients will not redeem more than 5%. Many clients will buck the trend at the lows of our equity.
Zhu Ang: Can you also briefly talk about the investment performance of Ivy Assets in the past few years?
Ivy Assets Our overseas hedge fund has an annualized return of around 22% over the past 10 years, an annualized return of around 26% before fees, and our net position is only 50%. We think it's good to get such a return with a net long position of 50%. Our return ratio between the best and worst years was about 3.5:1, and this year we also received the only best hedge fund in greater China from Eurekahedge, which is a highly recognized award in the industry.
Permeate long-termism in every "capillary"
Zhu Ang: Your long-term performance is very good, so let's talk about how to invest, right?
Ivy Assets The most distinctive feature of our investment framework is long-term. Long-term investments are permeated in every "capillary" of our daily work. The average holding period of individual stocks in our long positions is five years, and as the company grows, our holding period becomes longer and longer. In the future, we are very likely to further extend the shareholding cycle, which may be relatively rare in domestic asset management institutions. Today, two of the top five stocks with the largest holdings in our portfolio have been held since 2012: Tencent and Xueersi. We've always been proud of our long-term investment.
Since our inception in 2012, our investment strategy has never changed. Although in terms of performance, we have good years and bad years, but we have always done one thing: buy good companies with high growth. We define a good company in three dimensions: good industry, reasonable valuation, and high quality.
It is more important to know what not to do in investment than to do what to do. After so many years of investing, we know where we have a competitive advantage and which short-term opportunities we can pass up. A set of mature investment strategies are adhered to over time for a long time. Our approach has been used since the establishment of Ivy Assets and will continue to be adhered to for the next ten or twenty years.
Zhu Ang: Unlike many private equity funds, you first do it overseas and then enter the domestic market, why did you choose this model?
Ivy Assets When we first started to create Ivy Assets, the number of institutional investors in China was not much, and the cost of setting up a product was relatively high. In contrast, overseas has a very mature institutional investor and private equity fund operating system. Domestic investors are relatively immature, which will lead to everyone chasing up and killing in the subscription and redemption, which is not conducive to the stable operation of the fund, and the experience of investors will be relatively poor.
Today, we have established a long-term track record in overseas markets, the number of our product shares is constantly rising, and we are highly recognized by mature institutional investors. At the same time, domestic institutional investors are slowly maturing, and a large number of channels have become more institutionalized. More importantly, we believe that the product capacity of the domestic capital market will be larger than overseas, and the liquidity of the A-share market is very good.
In terms of product design, we mainly focus on hedge fund products overseas, with long positions and short positions. In short positions, if there are not enough targets, the size of the management will be limited. In contrast, the main products of domestic private equity are pure long only products, which will also make the capacity of the management scale larger.
Of course, the most important point is that we believe that China's asset management industry has entered a big era. In such an era of big asset management, we must also contribute our own strength.
Zhu Ang: You are still a little different from the traditional private placement in China, they are not simply long, they will also go short, why is the net position of overseas stocks 50%?
Ivy Capital has two types of hedge funds overseas, one is a relatively high position, which may have an average net long position of 70-80%, and the other is a relatively low net position, which is less than 30% most of the time. We think that we do not have the ability to choose time, so we will maintain a net position of 50% for a long time, so that we will mainly obtain long-term returns through stock selection, and at the same time, when the market adjusts, it will not be a large drawdown. The advantage of maintaining a medium position is that we are able to focus on stock selection and not think too much about the volatility of the market.
Build competitive advantage over asset duration and research focus
Juan: Don't you want to talk about your investment process later?
Ivy Assets Compared with large public funds, we certainly have certain disadvantages in the number of researchers and research resources, but the excess return must come from the cognitive advantage, so we build our own competitive advantage in two aspects to obtain long-term stable excess returns.
The first advantage comes from the "duration" of the investment. The shorter the investment, the greater the uncertainty, the more perturbation factors; the longer you look, the smaller the uncertainty, the smaller the perturbation factor. In essence, if we can have the ability and conditions to see the long term, it is a relatively large competitive advantage. Whether we are researching or investing, we are really starting from the long term. Our assessment cycle for internal investment and research is very long, and the company must stand in the dimension of at least 3 years, and some companies even have a 10-year dimension. We also have many researchers who have been doing research in an industry for many years. For example, the researcher with the longest experience here has been researching in a single field for more than 9 years. This will make us mentally better than most investment institutions. We do not affect long-term judgments because of short-term fluctuations.
For example, in 2018 we were studying a leading local life services company in China. The company was still losing money, but our study of the company was to look at his endgame, using the company's achievable market value in 2030 to calculate the potential return on our investment at that time. It was also through a long-term vision that we bought this company as the largest heavy stock in the portfolio at that time.
Of course, the end result was even better than we expected. Within 2 years, the company had achieved half of our ten-year expected total return. Even so, the company still holds our most significant positions because we believe there is a high degree of certainty that the company will continue to realize value.
The second advantage comes from the focus on investing. Our stock pool is strictly controlled at 150. Every month we update our stock pool, and if we want to add a new stock to the pool, we must exclude an old stock. Our entire stock pool changes by about 20-30% every year. Then each fund manager will probably select about 30 more from this stock pool as his position. This means that each of us fellows does not need to contribute as many new opportunities each year. Each person in the investment research team only needs to contribute about one investment opportunity a year.
The stability of researchers is also an important competitive advantage. On the one hand, what we ask of researchers is to focus on building a professional understanding of a small number of companies in the stock pool. On the other hand, through long-term research on these companies and mutual communication with us, they have accumulated a deep knowledge graph. Every spark of communication, details, and even the minutes of the investigation naturally has a tacit understanding and inheritance, and is recorded. If the research team changes hands very highly, communicating with a new researcher every once in a while will also bring a lot of wear and tear.
Ivy Asset Managers have about 20 years of investment experience, and we have been constantly subtracting in our investments, and many opportunities that do not conform to our investment framework are not taken advantage of. Over the past few years, we have focused on three major directions: technology, medicine, and consumption. In these long-term tracks, we do further screening. For example, in the field of large consumption, we have long been heavily positioned in the education track. We are not on a race track where any company will invest. Like the field of consumption, we are also screening out the best directions: education, liquor, brand consumption. These are sub-sectors that generate good returns in the long term.
Zhu Ang: You are very focused on your research, and you have decided very early on which are the long-term tracks?
Ivy Assets When we first made investments, we attached great importance to industries that were in line with the economic structure, and there was no such thing as a track at that time. At every stage of economic development, there were the best industries at that time. For example, from 2005 to 2007, the best industries were coal and nonferrous metals. At that time, if you didn't invest in these industries, you couldn't get good returns. If you invest in technology, medicine, and consumption at that time, the yield will not be the best.
The industry track will also change with the adjustment of the economic structure in the long run. We will grasp the future industry track from the changes in economic structure and demographic changes. We believe that in the predictable next 5-10 years, technology, medicine, and consumption will still be relatively good tracks. For example, in the field of cloud computing SaaS in science and technology, the development cycle is very long, the ceiling is also very high, and the industry growth rate is also very fast. Our cloud computing is still in the early stage of cloud computing in the United States, and there is a lot of room for future development.
Like the cloud service track, our PE/VC team in the primary market has been focusing on this field for the past few years, investing in many companies, and has also had a deep impact on our secondary market investment. We began researching a leading company for a cloud service in A-share as early as 2013, when the company was still a model for selling CDs. By 2015 we started doing in-depth research and in 2016 we started buying heavily. At that time, this company only had a market capitalization of 16 billion, and we thought through research that it could reach a market value of 100 billion. Even if it takes 10 years to materialize, we think this implied rate of return is appropriate. Eventually, the company achieved our market capitalization target within 5 years.
The industry track we focus on investing in must have a high ceiling and be able to give birth to a company with a large market value, so as to bring a relatively high return on investment with a high probability. For example, the new energy automobile industry also meets this characteristic, the industry is still in a stage of rapid development, and it will take 4-5 years for the penetration rate to increase to 25-30%. When the industry penetration rate reaches a relatively high position, we will look at whether this track is a good track.
Stock picks buy only the best business
Zhu Ang: What do you value when you select individual stocks?
Ivy Capital In stock selection, the most important thing is the business model. All the investment researchers in our company are essentially a group of people who look at the business model. How do you define a good business model? On this point, in fact, Buffett has made it very clear that a good business model has several important characteristics:
1) Strong ability to raise prices. Whether it is high-end liquor, SaaS cloud services, or education companies, they all have such characteristics. The reason why we don't like product companies and cyclical products is because they are prone to price drops. The most typical of these is commodities, such as iron ore, chemicals, which basically show a strong cyclicality and reach the ceiling of the industry. And some of the service companies we like, the price of products will continue to rise. In addition, some very strong brand companies can also continue to increase prices. We really like the business model with the ability to increase prices.
2) Strong user stickiness. Our heavily positioned Internet social and cloud service software companies have a strong stickiness. Including technology companies like Apple, user stickiness is also very strong, and the cost of migration is high. Most companies can't do this feature of high user stickiness. Conversely, some catering companies, user stickiness is not as high as imagined, is not a good business. Like we eat a brand of Chinese food every day, we will definitely get bored.
3) Huge network effect, the company's network can be spread to every corner of the world. Whether it is the leader of global express logistics or the leader of the Internet, there is a tangible and intangible network, which is located in every corner.
4) Unparalleled cost advantage. This characteristic is particularly evident in enterprises in the manufacturing industry.
Our entire investment research team, when screening companies, is based on these four criteria to find companies with good business model characteristics. Only if the business model is good enough, we can hold the money to continue to earn business growth for a long time. For the vast majority of industries, the cost side is rising. What kind of company can resist the rise in labor costs? One is a company that can continuously raise prices, and the other is a company that can continuously reduce costs through innovation. Companies with good business models can maintain a relatively high ROE.
Zhu Ang: How did you find these companies in the stock pool, and what was the source of the research?
Ivy Assets We are a company that is confident in internal research, with more than 90% of our investment ideas coming from our internal research. The vast majority of our investment ideas are also generated by internal research.
As mentioned earlier, the direction of our investment is very focused and focused. Opportunities in our investment field must not be run away. Many new stocks in this industry, we will study in advance before going public. Our whole investment research team is very capable, everyone works a long time together, and the communication efficiency is very high. And our investment is a long-term shareholding method, and we don't change hands after buying. Such an efficient investment research team is the most important asset of our Ivy League assets.
Investment should grasp the large variable of demographic structure
Zhu Ang: Back to the day when Ivy League Assets was just established, why were you able to set the three major investment tracks of technology, medicine and consumption so early?
Ivy Assets At that time, we mainly started from the perspective of demographic structure and found that the inflection point of China's demographic dividend has emerged, and it is facing an aging society in the future. This means that the development model of China's economy will inevitably bid farewell to the heavy chemical model of the past and turn to the improvement of labor efficiency, the consumption upgrade brought about by the rise in per capita GDP, and the pharmaceutical demand related to aging. We believe that this trend still exists, and we can still invest in this general direction in the next 10-20 years.
During this period, cyclical industries have also seen time and time again and again stage opportunities. Some opportunities lasted a quarter, some lasted half a year or even a year, but we never got the mood. We are very proud of the fact that we have always stood firm on our main track. Whether it is a good year or a bad year, we can stick to our investment direction without changing.
Zhu Ang: In your investments, there seems to be a special emphasis on demographics, are there any investment cases related to demographics?
Ivy Assets Let's take two examples of long and bearish population structures.
The first case is about a K-12 education leading enterprise, the education track is also a very important one since we made investment, and some leading enterprises have been held for more than 8 years. A big reason we were able to reposition the company at the bottom was because of the study of the demographics. The company went public in 2010, when it was mainly doing K-12 tuition in the Beijing market and had just entered the Shanghai area. At that time, we looked back at the birth rate in Shanghai from the time dimension of 2010 and found that the number of newborn babies in Shanghai and Beijing around 2001 was about 50,000 each, which was a low point. And at that time, we had already seen the birth rate begin to rise, and it was expected that Shanghai and Beijing would grow to a level of about 200,000 (in fact, Beijing exceeded 200,000 later, and Shanghai did not exceed). Behind this is precisely the trend of urbanization after 2000.
Through a study of the number of newborns in Beijing and Shanghai at the time, we judged that the potential market for this company would increase several times in the coming years. From this perspective, we believe that the company will maintain a very rapid growth in the next few years, so we chose to reposition this company relatively early.
The second case is about a high-end baby formula, which we are more cautious about, which is not the same as the mainstream view of the market. From a demographic point of view, the decline in the birth rate is an irreversible thing. Probably by 2025, the number of new births will drop from 17.53 million in 2017 to 10 million. This means that the market size of the infant formula industry will fall by half. And the user stickiness in this industry is not so strong, usually a user's life cycle is three years. In a market where the user life cycle is not long, if the number of new users falls off a cliff, then the enterprises in this track will face greater pressure to succeed.
Evolve at your own pace
Zhu Ang: What do you think about valuation?
Ivy Assets When we study companies, we focus on the endgame of the company. We will not first study the static valuation, but to see how high the ceiling of the industry is, whether the company's competitive barriers will be broken, whether the business model is established, and whether the industry itself has a relatively high threshold. When we see the company's end picture clearly, we discount it back with the forward market value and give us the expected yield of a company.
If we don't look at the company with endgame thinking, many of the companies we hold positions simply can't hold for that long. We believe that research must be done deeply enough and look long enough, which is the most important thing. The shorter you look, the worse the winning percentage of your judgment. When we discuss the value of a company, we all look at it from the perspective of whether the long-term business model is good and whether the barriers are high enough.
Zhu Ang: What is your long-term vision for Ivy League assets?
Ivy Assets Since its inception, we have paid a lot of attention to whether investors make money or not. Looking at the performance of the fund overseas, it is not only about the yield of the product, but also about how much money investors have made during the duration. We don't want to get bigger at high points and cause the holders to lose money. From the very beginning of Ivy Investments, ivy investment has had a very important goal: all of our investors, as long as they hold it for more than a year, can make money at any point in time. In this process, the companionship and education of investors are also very important. We hope that at the high point of the market, we can curb the impulse of investors to subscribe, and at the low point of the market, we can encourage investors to do more subscriptions.
Our second goal is to maintain a moderate size. Whether it's the size of the management or the size of the team, we don't want to do too much. Our overseas hedge fund products have been made into a club model, with only a few dozen holders in total, and everyone is like a big family together. In the future, we will gradually develop the scale of domestic products and slowly do it. We want to be a boutique asset management company, but not a small company.
Ultimately, we want to put both the investment and the company in a long-term way. Our investment will not be disturbed by the outside world, our team is long-term stable, our investment method is long-term effective, our customers for us long-term trust!
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