Based on the recording of Cai Liang's speech, it has not been reviewed by myself
Hello everyone, I am Cai Lighting, learn to buy a house with Cai Lighting, we help buyers talk. Today we will talk about some of the real estate regulation and control policies that have been intensively introduced by first-tier cities recently, and we look at the background in which it was proposed, and according to what principles, what kind of effects will be produced? What kind of impact will these cities, in turn, have on the real estate market across the country, and will it have an impact on your city in particular?
First of all, we said that to solve the property market, we found a principle of two auxiliary lines last year, one is that the local government wants to make the property active and has a lower limit; in addition, the central government wants to control, the housing is not speculated, there is a upper limit. The emergence of two lines has led to the lack of space and entry opportunities for investors. And once a market does not have the hot molecule of investors, the market temperature will drop, what about next? Just according to the hotball model of the house price is changing.
What we see this time is that the mechanism of these two lines continues to work, but the market is changing particularly fast, a little earlier and faster than in our top ten predictions at the end of last year, and the local government is acting a little faster. But the next change will not be unexpected.
We understand the background and means of these policies, and we can generally know how effective they are.
But before understanding this series of regulatory policies, we must have a reserve of knowledge, which is the hot air balloon model of house prices.
Let's say that the rise in housing prices in a city and a place, like a hot air balloon, is related to the market temperature inside. If the market temperature is high, the house price will rise.
What does this market temperature have to do with it? It is related to the number of hot molecules entering the hot air balloon and the free energy (thermal energy) carried by each hot molecule, in fact, it is related to the number of buyers entering the market and the amount of funds brought by each person with leverage. If you understand this principle, we can continue to listen to the lesson, and if you still don't understand it, you may have to make up the lesson. We have two lectures on the hot air balloon model of the house price, in the headline number [Cai Lighting Buying Methodology] column, wait for colleagues will give the contact path.
Let's first take a look at what these regulations in these cities are, and what kind of operations are they?
Let's look at Hangzhou first, Hangzhou it is basically two, the first is actually a purchase restriction, so that the original people who have obtained Hangzhou household registration can only buy one suite within 5 years, that is, to limit the number of heat molecules entering the hot air balloon. The second is the restriction on sales. If it is those sought-after houses, if it is within 10% of the winning rate, you cannot transfer it within 5 years, of course, its deed tax has also changed.
What do these two points mean?
I have just explained that the number of people entering the hot molecule is reduced, and the temperature of the hot air balloon will not let it continue to rise.
What does restricted sales mean? The restriction is actually to make it impossible for these investors to enter the market. Because it is locked up for 5 years, after 5 years you can sell, so such investment purposes, there is no way to enter the market (the following will be talked about in detail when it comes to Shanghai). Investors do not enter, the hottest heat molecule in the market it does not enter, the market temperature it will come down, so this is completely in accordance with the model of the hot air balloon to do a regulation.
Then we look at Shanghai, which mainly does some precise regulation and control in terms of taxation.
For example, if you buy a house within 5 years to sell, you have to levy vat on real estate in full; for more than 5 years, if it is a non-ordinary residence, it must be levied according to the difference in price; only ordinary residences can continue to be reduced.
——Shanghai was originally able to reduce it in 2 years, and now it is locked to 5 years, which is actually locking up its liquidity.
You may think that Shanghai house prices are going to rise anyway, I am not in a hurry to sell, lock 5 years on 5 years, it seems that there is no impact.
In fact, locking up the liquidity of house prices is one of the most effective means to restrict investors from entering the market. Regarding the logic of the impact of real estate liquidity on the appreciation of house prices, we also have two special lessons, called the liquidity principle of house prices. If you don't understand it, you can go to our column and learn it, so we won't go into it. In a word, because the house is in the process of buying and selling, the formation of value-added; if it is locked, it can not be traded within 5 years, so the house price is also frozen, and the possibility of continuous appreciation is greatly reduced.
What about after that? Therefore, investors, investment enthusiasts, he is not willing to enter the market. You can think about it, Shanghai VAT is about 5.3%, if you buy a house, sell it within 4 years, VAT will be charged 5.3, the full amount of 5.3, right? If you still have about 5% of the annual cost of capital, then the two items add up to 25% in 4 years. Coupled with what intermediary fee deed tax personal income tax, etc., it is said that if you do not have a 30% appreciation, it is basically a loss. Therefore, it is difficult for investors to enter the market again, and if the hot molecules of the market do not enter the market, it is difficult for the temperature of this hot air balloon to continue to rise, which is probably the meaning.
We say that Shanghai regulation, through the adjustment of the number of years of value-added tax, is also to adjust the temperature of the market in this way, but also according to the house price hot air balloon model to do effective regulation.
Let's look at Beijing, which is mainly two. The first is to quickly conduct some interview agents, ask them not to publish some articles, and adjust the real estate expectations to a high level. We see that the chain family has also quietly removed the data of his historical transactions. Because as soon as everyone is bullish, they will drill into the hot ball, go to buy a house, the higher the market temperature; do not let them release such expectations, that is, let everyone not rush to enter, the number of people entering the market will fall, the market temperature will fall, and the house price will not rise rapidly.
The second point is to crack down on this hot money entering the market, and it is necessary to strictly investigate business loans, consumer loans, and down payment loans. These hot money does not enter the market, which is what we just said, the heat carried by the hot molecules of the hot air balloon model, if the amount of money carried by each person does not increase it through various levers, the temperature of this market will not rise rapidly.
This is the measure taken by Beijing Municipality, and it is easy to understand.
Let's look at Shenzhen next, what is the Shenzhen New Deal? The first is to make a system of our home purchase credit report, which can do some screening in advance, which is also equivalent to restricting the qualifications for buying a house, and doing it more strictly.
The second point, because in the past year in Shenzhen, all its hot spots have come from new houses, lies in "playing new"; so this time the measure has changed, he does not let everyone go to each real estate to "lottery", but let everyone, for example, this time open 6 new disks, you can only draw one of them.
If you watch an episode of the program we did before, in the headline number and watermelon video of "Buy a house with Cai Guangxue", last June 30 launched the "9,000 people grab 600 suites" that issue, we clearly put forward a measure suggestion to the Shenzhen Municipal Government, in fact, this one, exactly the same! Let everyone not go to every real estate in the city to play new, all go to the lottery, is to let him selectively draw lottery. It looks like you're going to draw fewer draws, but your odds of winning haven't changed at all. It turned out that the people of the whole city went to the city's real estate to draw the lottery, and now everyone in the area you choose to come down, you look at such an area to draw the lottery. In this way, the number of participants in the lottery for each property is reduced, and the temperature is reduced.
Well, we see this wave of operations in Shenzhen, it has neither a purchase limit, nor a loan limit, nor a price limit, it is directly to regulate the temperature of the market, by regulating the market temperature, that is, to make the heat of the entire city, the real estate heat decline, to regulate the house price. Whether it works or not is a test of our early predictions and a best example of a hot air balloon model.
Therefore, the above cities are all applied to these policies and regulations through such a complete understanding of the hot air balloon model. I should have proposed this model in 2007, I remember that at that time, on a program of CCTV Lao Chunyan, I told you about such a model drawn on the spot, and we spent more than ten years to observe the changing trend of the market. Now it can be seen that local governments in various places are already very familiar with the use of hot air balloon models. If we are still in the logic of the past, saying that government regulation and control are all riotous operations, and then it has no effect - you are lagging behind!
The core of the hot air balloon model is to unify many variables such as market expectations, supply and demand, and policy regulation in one model. Now the government has fully understood that they can accurately regulate house prices by regulating the switch of the hot air balloon, that is, limiting the number of people entering the market and limiting the free energy they carry. If we, as a buyer, don't understand these models, I suggest you must learn them carefully, so that you can understand the trend of house price growth in the city, why it will grow, whether government regulation is effective, and finally what kind of trend.
Well, let's talk about it below, if we understand the logic of these cities, we know that these first-tier cities, the 6 cities that we predicted last year that house prices will rise, 4 will be held down very quickly.
Therefore, in 2021, house prices will "look up", and this trend has been quickly held down by local governments. From these intensive introductions of these policies, we should be able to see that behind the practices of local governments, there should be some unified arrangements, unified deployments, and we say that at least there is a unified spirit.
Then under the guidance of this unified spirit, we know that the entire Chinese house price will be controlled more quickly and strictly in 2021. So if you are an investor, you are speculating, your opportunities are not many.
The next thing you may see is that the dragon head is held down, and the city of the dragon waist may soon introduce some regulatory policies. Which cities? For example, you can predict with me in the comments section which cities will be regulated next? For example, Nanjing, Hefei or Nantong, Xuzhou, are these cities? If the Yangtze River is a dragon, the central part says Wuhan, right? I look at Chengdu, Xi'an? Or maybe there are individual cities with dragon tails, such as Dalian? Let's take a look at which city is next, and this kind of regulatory policy will be introduced, so let's wait and see.
Well, welcome to my talk. If you feel you have better ideas, a better understanding of the principles I've told me, or if you think we have something to fix for our hot air balloon model, please write it down in your comments. Thank you so much!