Hello everyone, I am Cai Lighting, welcome to join the buying a house study group, this issue I will tell you about one of the great changes in the property market, about the guidance price of second-hand houses.
The guidance price of second-hand houses started from Shenzhen this year, and successively in Chengdu, Xi'an, Shanghai... About seven or eight cities have begun to advance, and I estimate that in the future, cities with faster house prices in hot cities will promote such policies.
Many people may feel that there are policies and countermeasures on this thing, and it is not a big deal. Moutai also has a guide price, can not buy ah. Your guidance price is too low, the seller does not sell, the big deal is to engage in a yin and yang contract, re-engage in a decoration price is not the end? For example, this house was sold according to your guidance price of 10 million, but there is a particularly good decoration in my house, I also spent 5 million, I still have rosewood furniture in this house, I also spent 5 million, I became 20 million and then sold, you can't manage it, right? It seems like that's the case.
If you only understand it from this perspective, you think this thing is not a big deal, but if you have participated in our home buying study group, studied the "hot air balloon model of house prices", know how house prices are generated, if you look at the back of this policy, some of its logic, you will have more understanding, know that this policy will bring a huge impact.
Regarding the housing price hot air balloon model, there will be a very detailed and systematic explanation in our study group, which is not much to say here, in short, the house price is determined by the market temperature, and the market temperature is determined by the number of hot molecules entering the hot air balloon and the free energy carried by each hot molecule.
Well, if the second-hand housing guidance price can reduce the number of people entering the market at these two levels, and can reduce the amount of funds carried by each person, then it will reduce the market temperature and affect the house price.
Let's first look at this guide price, from the current Shenzhen Chengdu and other places, the guide price is about 20%-30% lower than the normal market price. The higher the house price, the lower the place. For example, in Shenzhen, the unit price of 200,000 or 300,000 yuan may be about 40% lower. Obviously, the homeowner will not sell according to the guide price, it seems to be a decoration. But you should note that the government has the right to transfer the property, and it also has the right to let the bank determine the amount of the loan according to the guide price. This will affect the market temperature from two points. The first point does not slow down the pace of the transfer and let the market cool down, which is easy to understand, and the second point is how to reduce the market temperature? Let's take a look.
If you are evaluated according to the guidance price to give you a loan, then the amount of your loan will be reduced a lot, the loan amount will be reduced a lot, and the proportion of your down payment will increase a lot. The down payment ratio is a very sensitive data in the real estate market, as long as it rises, it will block a lot of just needs outside the threshold, and the number of people entering the market will become smaller.
Let's take a brief look, if a house in Shenzhen just needs to buy a house of 5 million, he originally needs to prepare a 30% down payment, 1.5 million is enough. But if the house is loaned according to its 3.5 million% discount guidance price, it can only borrow 2.45 million, then his personal down payment suddenly becomes 2.55 million, and invisibly he has to take out 1.05 million more.
We know that it is not easy to just need to make a down payment, it may still take a lot of effort to make up a 1.5 million, and now let him make up another 1.05 million, it may be difficult, this part of the people who can originally buy a house, they may be stopped by the down payment, there is no way to enter.
Just need customers like this, the same is true for improved customers, the down payment is also more than half, which will also stop a large number of improved customers. In particular, if the improved customer does not need to buy the house he wants to sell in front of him, it will also drag his improved hind legs.
A large part of what is just needed and improved is stuck outside the threshold, what will happen to investors?
We know that the investors in Shenzhen originally played the most high-rated high-loans, rated the house prices very high, and then the loans were very high, using as little funds as possible, using high leverage to play. The risk is also small, it is not a big deal to give the house to the bank, but a large amount of cash has been set out before. Now in this way, it is now a low loan, so its use of leverage is greatly reduced, then the entire investor and speculators are also unable to play, so when these three groups are difficult to enter, the capital carried by the market is also small, we say that the temperature of the real estate market will definitely fall, the market temperature will fall, and the height of the hot air balloon will be difficult to continue to rise.
Therefore, we say that the guidance price of second-hand houses is ostensibly a limit price, but it is essentially a limit on loans and purchases, by limiting the number of people entering the market and the amount of funds carried, and finally playing a role in reducing market temperature and controlling house prices.
So we can deduce two results from this point:
The first result, if it is this city, the momentum of house price rise is very strong, then it will appear sideways in a short period of time, there will be no transaction, and the market will be frozen;
The second result, if the city house price rise momentum is not particularly strong, then there may be a part of the low-priced houses, began to take out the market to trade, will pull down the overall house price, will fall.
We look at the actual results from now, for example, Shenzhen has been implementing the second-hand housing guidance price for a while, we see that although its house price has not dropped much, it is basically sideways, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the first half of the year has dropped by 60% year-on-year, so that many intermediaries in Shenzhen now feel that there is no work to do.
We look at Xi'an and Chengdu, Chengdu house prices have not dropped much, some particularly good school district resources of good housing is still slightly rising, but overall its trading volume is declining, including Xi'an at least in the past surge momentum has been curbed.
There may be people who will feel that this thing is at this time and another, and now engage in a second-hand house guidance price, maybe after a period of time, the folk will have a lot of wisdom and many ways to dissolve it, this thing does not exist. You have to look at the designer who did this, why he did it, what is his underlying logic?
First of all, we know that the reason why these local governments have introduced the guidance price for second-hand houses is because they feel that second-hand houses cannot be managed. To control the real estate market in this city, it is necessary to control both first-hand houses and second-hand houses. The first-hand house is now basically managed, through the filing of quotations. Now many cities after two years of housing prices, a new house is set, because when you get the land, you are limited to the sales price, so the new house is basically managed, but the second-hand house can not be managed, so there are many cities a second-hand house upside down, into everyone to play new, making the scene very ugly, the city's managers are held accountable.
So now the local government has come back to control the second-hand house, how can the second-hand house be managed? And can not be like the first-hand house, disobedience and do not give the project record. Because everyone is a small owner, is an individual behavior, so now engaged in this second-hand housing guidance price, this guidance price seems to be a virtual, I can not follow this, but because it from raising the threshold for buying a house, reducing mortgage funds, reducing market temperature, from these perspectives to ultimately affect the entire market.
Therefore, his purpose is to control the entire market, whether it is a first-hand house or a second-hand house, to control your house price for you. We know that now in addition to using market means, there are many administrative means that have been used, and no matter how it is, there will be some judicial means, such as Shenzhen's deep house theory taking the lead in speculating in the house, going in; Beijing's Nancheng fangjie was sentenced to life. Recently, I was selling houses in Beijing's Xicheng School District, and some of the intermediaries in my family who loved my family were also arrested for incitement. So you see the local government, the reason why it does this, the intention and determination behind it, but also to see where this policy will work. When you understand this, you know that this one is still very important.
The second-hand house guidance price is not very two, if it really wants to be implemented, it is still a king fried.
(If you don't understand, please join our buying a house study group and discuss it every day).