AUKUS fears opening the "Pandora's Box" of nuclear proliferation

Source: People's Daily Overseas Edition

According to the British "Guardian" website, international atomic energy agency director general Rafael Grossi recently said that the trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) established by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia has set a precedent, and other countries may follow Australia's example and seek to build nuclear-powered submarines, triggering serious nuclear proliferation risks.

There are nuclear voices in Japan and South Korea

Since the United States and Britain announced that they would provide nuclear submarine technology to Australia, the topic of nuclear technology has provoked a round of "chain reaction".

According to the website of Japan's "Diplomat" magazine, Japan's minister in charge of administrative reform, Taro Kono, said in a televised debate on the LDP's presidential election last month that the development of nuclear submarines is a "very important" capability for Japan, and it is necessary to study the use of the region, deployment costs and operations in a comprehensive way.

According to South Korean media sources, South Korea's opposition "National Power Party" lawmakers said this month that South Korea should consult with the United States to re-deploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and become a "real ally" of the United States.

An article on the Nikkei Asian Review website states that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons requires non-nuclear States to accept IAEA safeguards. However, highly enriched uranium used for nuclear submarine fuel is exempt from IAEA review. The AUKUS protocol exploits this vulnerability in the treaty, posing a serious security risk. Non-nuclear States interested in purchasing or developing nuclear submarines could use this precedent to produce and stockpile highly enriched uranium that could be used for nuclear weapons, with a serious impact on the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Complicating the nuclear problem

Xu Xiujun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter that the negative impact of the cooperation between the United States, Britain, and Australia around nuclear submarines has concentrated in three aspects: First, intensifying nuclear competition among major powers. The United States has co-opted non-nuclear countries to join its own nuclear deterrent system, bringing a new trend to the nuclear arms race among major powers. Secondly, it further complicates the existing global nuclear problem. Under the circumstance that the Iranian nuclear and North Korean nuclear issues have not yet been resolved, the cooperation between the United States, Britain and Australia has added new difficulties to the world, that is, Australia's nuclear issue. Third, it provides an excuse for some non-nuclear countries to seize the opportunity to achieve nuclearization, and at the same time plays an undesirable demonstration effect on the research and development and utilization of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the chain reaction of the global nuclear problem. "Judging from the statements of some countries, some non-nuclear countries have already welcomed and supported the nuclear submarine cooperation between the United States, Britain and Australia, and this position must be guarded against."

British Defence Chief of Staff Carter recently said that AUKUS is not exclusive, and that Five Eyes countries such as Japan, Canada, New Zealand and other "like-minded partners" may join. He also said that the three parties of AUKUS should further strengthen information sharing.

"The problems facing the world today are mostly non-traditional security issues, including the covid-19 pandemic, climate change and other common human challenges. However, AUKUS has heated up traditional security issues such as the nuclear threat that had previously cooled down. If AUKUS 'expands', the traditional security threat will further increase. Xu Xiujun said.

The international community must stop it

IAEA Director General Grossi said the agency would engage in dialogue with the United States, Britain and Australia to develop a specific plan for the implementation of safeguards on Australian nuclear submarines. In this regard, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that until all parties reach a consensus, the United States, Britain, and Australia should not cooperate in nuclear submarines, and the Secretariat of the International Atomic Energy Agency should not reach a so-called non-proliferation arrangement with the three countries, so as not to endorse proliferation acts.

The actions of the United States, Britain and Australia have attracted criticism from many countries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently said that the formation of an exclusive "small circle" and a military bloc created under the logic of the Cold War and the policy of containment have intensified tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. Dave Laxono, a member of the First Committee on Defense and Foreign Affairs of the Indonesian Parliament, said in a statement that U.S.-British-Australian nuclear submarine cooperation would have an impact on security and stability in the ASEAN region. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Said in a note that the trilateral security partnership would spark a regional arms race. Romer Banlawy, director of the Philippine Institute of Peace, Violence and Terrorism, said in an interview with the media that Southeast Asian countries have always abided by the principle of nuclear-weapon-free zones, and if Australia insists on going its own way, it will face questions from Southeast Asian countries.

"The negative impact of the international community on AUKUS has been clearly assessed, and there is no shortage of criticism from some people of insight in countries such as the United States, Britain, and Australia. With the opposition of many parties and the intervention of multilateral agencies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, AUKUS faces great resistance if it wants to form an influence. At the same time, however, the international community must also guard against another expansion trend of AUKUS, that is, to use the current mechanism to march into the field of conventional military security and economic security other than nuclear security, and form a new economic security alliance. Xu Xiujun said.