The GDP data of each province and city in the first three quarters of 2021 was released.
Let's analyze the whole as a whole.
Guangdong continues to lead the country with 8800.99 billion, Jiangsu ranks second with 8489.569 billion, a difference of 311.421 billion yuan with Guangzhou, the gap is narrowing, and the GDP of the two provinces will rank first or second in 2020.
Shandong's third 6,043.92 billion, and the second place Jiangsu's difference is a full 2,445.649 billion, a cliff-like gap.
The gap between Shandong and Zhejiang, and between Zhejiang and Henan, is also widening.
Hubei experienced the epidemic last year, the economy was affected, the first three quarters of gdp with a slight gap of 117 million yuan to lose Hunan, and the first three quarters of 2021 Hubei surpassed Hunan, rising to eighth place.
Beijing surpassed Hebei, Shanxi surpassed Guizhou, and Jiangxi surpassed Shaanxi.
In addition, I will also compare a set of economic data for you.
Nominal and real GDP growth rates of provinces and municipalities in the first three quarters of 2021.
Why are there two statistical calibers?
Let's start with two nouns.
Nominal growth refers to the sum of the prices of domestic products and services for a given period, calculated at current market prices. Real GDP refers to the real value of all output produced in different periods under the condition that the same price or currency value remains unchanged, that is, the GDP growth rate after excluding the price index.
If there is deflation, the nominal growth rate is lower than the real growth rate, and if there is inflation, the result is the opposite.
If you only consider the nominal growth rate when counting, in the context of the current big inflation, you may overestimate the GDP growth rate, in fact, there is more money on the book, but in fact, the money in the pocket has not increased much, so it will fall into the "inner volume".
Therefore, it is generally believed that the actual growth rate is more objective than the nominal growth rate.
Judging from the data, the actual growth rate of various provinces and cities is smaller than the nominal growth rate to varying degrees.
Shanxi, where the nominal growth rate is as high as 24.7%, the actual growth rate has dropped by 14.2 percentage points.
Xinjiang fell by 7.3 percentage points and Inner Mongolia by 9.8 percentage points.
Hubei and Jilin are actually growing faster than nominal.
If you analyze this chart in detail, you will find that the nominal GDP growth rate of northern provinces such as Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia is eye-catching.
Is this a signal of the north's economic rise?
Two views, one is that the northern provinces have indeed accelerated their transformation in economic development and enjoyed the dividends of transformation and development.
The other is the soaring price of commodities, which has led to the rapid growth of nominal GDP in the northern energy provinces.
Taking Shanxi as an example, as a major coal province, the profit of coal mining and washing industry in January and August increased by 145.3% year-on-year, and the profit of coal fuel processing industry soared by 2471.2% year-on-year. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the price of thermal coal has risen sharply, not only in raw materials, but also in all aspects of the processing process has increased the cost of finished coal products.
The rise in raw material prices is directly reflected in the PPI data, so there are also September economic data, CPI rose steadily, and the CPI soared, the scissors difference expanded, which is good for the energy province, and the price is difficult to transmit to the midstream manufacturing industry and the downstream consumer end, and some manufacturing provinces are obviously under pressure.
Therefore, under the inflation of raw materials, the economy of the energy province is red against the trend, but whether it can be sustained and form a long-term sustained growth momentum depends on the future market situation.
Once you enter the next price cycle and policy regulation, the price falls, then these provinces may have a wave of decline.