China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Song Jie chen feng reported in Beijing
Public funds advocate crossing bulls and bears and making money for long-term investment, because in the long run, even professional fund managers are difficult to choose the time.
Jianhong Time No. 4, a private equity fund established in September 2020, has a net value of more than 6.9 in just one year, and the return this year has reached 518.55%, ranking among the top three stock strategies in the whole market. Fund manager Zhao Yuanyuan said bluntly in an interview with the "China Times" reporter that most fund managers are from industry research, good at selecting individual stocks, it is difficult to choose the time, she earns money in the industry rotation, select a combination of stocks suitable for the current market style, adjust the position in two or three months, and win the relative return with an absolute return investment strategy.
Keep up with the industry wheel
According to Zhao Yuanyuan, about 10% of the fund assets of Time No. 4 are invested in commodities and bonds, and 90% of the positions are stock investments, which is also the source of most of the fund's income. In the case of a relatively high net value of the fund, she will use a lower proportion of margin financing to amplify the return while controlling the risk.
In one year, the net value of the fund doubled by 5 times, and Zhao Yuanyuan told the "China Times" reporter that this year's industry rotation is very fast, and she has almost grasped every small cycle. Her operation is very simple, in short, as long as the interest rate falls, the growth stock market will follow; when the interest rate rises, it needs to be adjusted to the financial and consumer stocks.
Specifically, before the Spring Festival, interest rates rose, it is the market of liquor and banks; after the Spring Festival, the outside world believes that the Fed 'balance sheet reduction' is imminent, the US Treasury bonds have plummeted, and the northbound funds have withdrawn sharply from A shares, and she immediately sold consumer blue chips and adjusted her positions to growth stocks. In March-May, U.S. Treasuries rebounded and interest rates flattened, focusing on the re-inflow of northbound funds, and her positions also returned to consumer stocks such as medical beauty that foreign investors liked. After June, interest rates fell significantly, and the market returned to growth stocks, the most typical of which is the upstream of new energy vehicles. Both growth stocks and cyclical stocks are high-risk preference sectors, followed by cyclical stocks after growth stocks rise. In her experience, cyclical stocks rise by up to two months to reflect the price increase expectations for the next six months. Since October, the central bank has stated that it will no longer cut the RRR, interest rates have risen, and the style of the market has begun to partially switch to big finance and big consumption.
Zhao Yuanyuan believes that any industry will be affected by the macro cycle, because the macro cycle determines the currency cycle, and the currency cycle determines the risk appetite cycle of the market. Where central banks used to react after economic growth or inflation persisted for a while, central banks are now operating more flexibly, sometimes even ahead of schedule. As the central bank's level of manipulation continues to rise, it will lead to a shortening of the macro cycle, and the rotation of the industry will become faster and faster in the future, which may have been 6 months in the past, and now it will be switched in two or three months.
How the market goes next, she is still waiting to see if there will be a rebound stage in coal prices. Zhao Yuanyuan said that coal prices will affect inflation expectations, which in turn will affect interest rates. The National Development and Reform Commission has recently implemented interventions in coal prices, resulting in a decline in coal prices, but coal prices are still unstable, resulting in the current market situation is also very vague, and the rotation is calculated on a daily basis. If coal prices stabilize at the bottom, she will be more bullish on growth stocks; but if coal prices rebound as the weather gets colder, she will adjust her position to big consumption.
Earn money in macro cycles
Before engaging in investment work, Zhao Yuanyuan worked in large securities companies and public funds for 7 years of macro strategy research, good at industry linkage. When constructing the stock pool, she will fully consider the track and industry cycle, and in the small stage of each macro cycle, select the combination of individual stocks in the stock pool that suits the market style at that time, so as to make the performance curve smoother. She said that if you hold a certain track for a long time, you will definitely be affected by the changes in the currency cycle and the risk appetite cycle brought about by the macro cycle, and the net value curve of the net value curve will fluctuate more without timely adjustment.
Doing industry rotation means that the turnover rate will be higher than the strategy of long-term holding of selected stocks from the bottom up, which is different from the long-term investment and value investment orthodoxy advocated by public funds.
She believes that the promotion of long-term investment in public offerings is related to the fact that the vast majority of fund managers are currently industry researchers. The background of the industry, compared to the timing, is better at bottom-up stock selection, and needs to make long-term money by crossing the macro cycle. Compared with the fund manager who has done industry research, she needs to rely more on the research team in stock selection, but she makes timely money in the industry and relies on the stock portfolio to dilute the differences between individual stocks.
On the other hand, if the turnover rate of value investment is low, the net value fluctuation will be relatively large, and the frequency of customer subscription and redemption will become higher, which will make the fund size rise and fall.
Zhao Yuanyuan told reporters that the scale of the fund is very large, especially after reaching the level of ten billion, no matter what industry the fund buys, subject to liquidity constraints, it is more difficult to achieve timing, and buying large-cap stocks is a better choice. Even if it is an industry rotation, it can only be converted among the industry leaders.
According to her, the scale of Time Four is relatively stable, the impact on operation is small, and when the market risk appetite is strong, there is an opportunity to choose some highly elastic small and medium-sized market value stocks.