Anhui, known as the "China Golden Winemaking Belt", which passes through 30 ° north latitude, is a typical monsoon climate, with mild climate and moderate rainfall, and the climate creates a natural fermentation vessel that is beneficial to winemaking.
Anhui is also a large agricultural province, sitting on about 140,000 square kilometers of land, rich in grain, offshore and riverside, excellent water quality. After the founding of New China, the winemaking industry has become a pillar industry.
<b>A hundred flowers bloomed in the past: 4 liquor companies landed on the capital market</b>
As one of the birthplaces of liquor, the history of winemaking in Anhui can be traced back to the Shang Dynasty. It is recorded in the Book of Poetry, Shang Song, and Liezu that during the Yin Shang Period, Suixi in northern Anhui Province had begun to make wine, and there was a custom of worshipping ancestors with wine and praying. During the Ming and Qing dynasties, the scale gradually increased, and the ruins of China's largest winemaking workshop were excavated in Suixi, Anhui.
The people of Anhui are also keen to drink, and the average person drinks 5.6 taels per month. Northern Anhui belongs to the extravagant faction, popular "N +1" or "N-1", a table of 10 people, generally drink 11 bottles or 9 bottles of liquor; Southern Anhui likes "fried thunder (罍), beer and liquor mixed together, after touching the cup and drinking it all."
As the saying goes, it comes from wine. This side says "Northeast tiger, northwest wolf, drink but small Fuyang", that side of the rumor "Fuyang sparrows can also drink three or two wine", quite a bit of three bowls but not post meaning.
Some people drink alcohol, and naturally some people produce wine. As of the end of 2019, there were 101 industrial liquor enterprises above designated size in Anhui, and the most glorious moment was the emergence of blast furnace liquor, Wenwang tribute wine, Anhui wine, Mingguang wine, Xuanjiu, Jiuhuashan wine, Shahe wang wine, Jiaopi wine, Zhonghua Yuquan wine...
In addition, Gujing Tribute Wine, Kouzi Cellar, Yingchao Tribute Wine, and Golden Seed Wine have successively landed on the exchange and listed, and called Anhui Wine "Four Golden Flowers". At present, there are 19 listed liquor companies in the capital market, while Anhui occupies 4 seats, which is the same as Sichuan.
"East does not enter Anhui, west does not enter Sichuan". By geographical division, Anhui Liquor has long formed three major regional brands with Qianjiu and Sichuan Liquor, and has occupied the second position in the liquor industry for many years.
It can be said that Anhui liquor is an extremely strong stroke on the map of Chinese liquor.
<b>Now, when fatigue is emerging: there are 4 major bottlenecks in the development process</b>
Liquor stocks have always been known as the "last faith of A shares", and "dipping in wine is rising" has also become the tacit wealth code of the capital market, and the competition between liquor companies has also tended to be white-hot.
In such a context, Anhui Wine shows a tired state of not advancing and retreating. At the end of 2020, the Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics pointed out that there are 4 major hidden worries in the development process of Anhui Wine:
<b>First, the speed of development is not fast enough;</b>
Overall, the second position of Anhui wine is gradually lost, and it no longer occupies the advantage of regional wine.
In terms of assets, as of the end of 2019, the total assets of the liquor industry in Anhui Province were 64.66 billion yuan, which was only equivalent to 15.4% and 16.7% of Sichuan and Guizhou, respectively, down 1 and 6.2 percentage points from 2015;
In terms of revenue, from 2015 to 2019, the operating income of the liquor industry in Anhui Province increased by an average annual rate of 7.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points lower than that of the whole country, and 13.4, 3.9 and 0.9 percentage points lower than that of Guizhou, Sichuan and Jiangsu respectively.
In terms of output, Anhui Province's liquor production in 2020 (discounted 65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 281,200 kiloliters, accounting for only 3.8% of the country's liquor production, ranking fifth in the country after Sichuan, Henan, Hubei and Beijing;
In terms of the number of enterprises, as of July 2020, there are 8275 liquor-related enterprises in Anhui, ranking 9th in the country.
<b>Second, the leading enterprises are not strong enough;</b>
There are many liquors in Anhui Province, and if you want to talk about performance, you still have to count the "four golden flowers" that have been listed. The Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics pointed out that from the perspective of revenue proportion, the operating income of the four listed liquor companies accounted for the proportion of the operating income of liquor enterprises from 10.8% in 2015 to 8.3% in 2019.
From the internal point of view, the "two-eight effect" is obvious, and the Anhui liquor overlord Gujing Tribute Wine is the only one. Taking the operation of the first half of 2021 as an example, Gujing Tribute Wine ranked first with an operating income of 7.007 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.379 billion yuan; the second and third Kouzi Cellar and Yingchao Tribute Wine, the operating income in the first half of the year was only one-third of Gujing Tribute Wine, and the net profit was also cut off; not to mention the long-term loss of Golden Seed Wine in recent years.
The surging liquor market is not waiting for anyone. From the external point of view, the pattern of 19 listed liquor companies is usually summarized as: the "Mao Five" of iron fighting, and the old third of the flowing water. In addition to Moutai (600519) and Wuliangye (000858), the third chair is staged by Yanghe Shares, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu in the "Three Kingdoms Killing" competition, and the remaining 14 liquor companies are competing for deer and striving to be "seen" as soon as possible.
Among them, Gujing Tribute Wine, the largest in Anhui Province, is only 5.41% of Guizhou Moutai on September 24, 14.80% of Wuliangye, and 42.01% of Yanghe Shares, which is a big gap with leading enterprises.
The "four golden flowers" are still like this, not to mention those Anhui liquor enterprises that have not yet entered the capital stage.
<b>Third, the marketing ability is not strong enough. </b>
Anhui wine is facing internal and external troubles. Internal worries: On the one hand, the share of leading enterprises in Anhui Province is not high. In 2019, the market share of Gujing Gongjiu in the province was only about 25%, lower than 35% of Yanghe shares and 50% of Shanxi Fenjiu.
And brands from other provinces have gradually opened up the market in Anhui Province. "The east does not enter Anhui, the west does not enter Sichuan" - in the glorious period, this sentence is often used to describe the high local marketing barriers in Anhui, foreign wine companies are difficult to enter, and the competition is extremely cruel. Today, this pattern has long been broken, and the base camp market in Anhui Province has gradually been divided and encroached upon by "outsiders". According to incomplete statistics, in the Anhui liquor market of about 30 billion yuan, "outsiders" account for more than 30%. Among the 100-yuan liquor, Yanghe shares have a market share of 7% in Anhui Province, second only to the three major brands of Gujing, Kouzijiao and Yingchao.
External troubles: insufficient market development outside the province. The Anhui Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the sales of Gujing Gongjiu outside the central China region accounted for only 10.5% of all sales, Kouzijiao accounted for 16.8%, and Golden Seed Wine accounted for 10.0%.
<b>Fourth, there are not enough high-end brands. </b>
With the acceleration of the upgrading of liquor consumption, consumers pay more attention to brands, and high-end is an inevitable choice for brand liquor companies. The Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics believes that the absence of high-end products is the reason why Golden Seed Wine is gradually lagging behind. Golden Seed Wine mainly produces low-end and medium-end products, and there are not many upgraded products, which leads to an expansion of operating income decline, and the decline in operating income expands from 16.7% in 2015 to 30.5% in 2019.
In addition, most small enterprises pursue short-term interests, do not pay attention to brand building and cultivation, and the added value of products is low. In 2019, the operating income profit margin of liquor SMEs above designated size in Anhui Province dropped from 6% to 4.9%.
<b>The road to the future: sub-high-end expansion + force outside the province are full of variables</b>
In order to enhance the influence of Anhui liquor brand, on March 18, 2020, the Department of Economy and Information Technology of Anhui Province issued the notice of "Several Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Anhui Liquor Industry".
The notice pointed out that "by 2025, Anhui liquor enterprises will achieve operating income of 50 billion yuan, total wine production of 500,000 kiloliters, and cultivate 1 liquor enterprise with an annual operating income of more than 20 billion yuan and 2 enterprises with an annual operating income of more than 10 billion yuan." ”
There are many liquors in Anhui Province, and the heavy responsibility naturally falls on the shoulders of the "four golden flowers" of Anhui liquor. More specifically, the boss Gujing Tribute Wine will be 20 billion yuan in operating income in 2025, and KouziJiao and Yingchao Tribute Wine will each be responsible for 10 billion yuan of operating income.
Shengang Securities pointed out that there are three major trends in the Anhui liquor market: the rapid upgrading of the mainstream consumer price band; the formation of a super-strong and double-strong competitive pattern in the province; and the high threshold for competitive product structure and channel marketing in the province. Liquor companies that can win in the Anhui liquor market need to have advantages in terms of price band, channel strength and advantageous market.
Gujing Gongjiu also said in the financial report that in the future, benefiting from the upgrading of consumption and the change of consumption concepts, the promotion of sub-high-end liquor is the main driving force for the development of the liquor industry. The improvement of consumption grade is the main driving force for the development of the liquor industry. Liquor companies need to fully grasp the golden opportunity of mass consumption upgrading, through quality improvement, market segmentation and product innovation, etc., to better meet the consumer demand of the mass market, and promote the transformation and upgrading of product structure.
Who can occupy the sub-high-end price band, increase the gross profit products, and increase the value of tons of liquor, or will become the key to the future breakthrough of Anhui liquor.
At present, Gujing Tribute Wine, Kouzi Cellar, and Yingchao Tribute Wine are all laid out to varying degrees in high-grade liquor. Gujing Tribute Wine focuses on "nationalization, sub-high-end", positioning high-end, sub-high-end, mid-end "vintage pulp" series of products is the main direction of structural adjustment, such as gu 26, gu 20 and other main consumption scenarios for high-end business consumption scenarios.
Kouzijiao has increased its investment in science and technology and the development of new products, and launched Kouzifang, Kouzi Fine Wine, and Kouzijiao series of high-grade liquor products, forming a full range of high-, medium-grade and low-grade product sequences.
In the past two years, the main promotion of the sub-high-end price segment Dongzang series has been promoted, and the proportion of sales revenue of medium and high-end liquor in the total operating income has increased steadily. Huaxi Securities believes that the ecological cave has been in the core price segment of Hefei and Lu'an in the core markets of Yingchao Tribute Wine for 6 years and 9 years. In addition, Yingchao Tribute Wine is still actively laying out and upgrading the ecological cave of products for 16 and 20 years, hoping to have better development in the sub-high-end and higher price segments.
In stark contrast, the proportion of golden seed high-grade liquor in total operating income has declined year after year. Although Golden Seed Liquor has followed the footsteps and launched a new product of positioning sub-high-end liquor, fuhexiang, from the perspective of grade structure, the operating income of ordinary liquor is still more than double that of medium and high-end liquor.
In fact, since Golden Seed Wine entered the pharmaceutical track, the proportion of the business's operating income has increased year by year, and the proportion of pharmaceutical operating income in 2018-2020 is 25.17%, 42.63% and 41.60%, respectively, which is nearly half. It was difficult to distinguish for a while, whether Golden Seed Wine was a liquor company or a pharmaceutical company.
Another "key" is to go out of Anhui and open up markets outside the province.
At present, in addition to taking over many "territories" from other provinces, the remaining 3 are still in the "pioneering" stage. It is worth noting that when the extra-provincial income of Gujing Tribute Wine, KouziJiao and Golden Seed showed an upward trend, Yingchao Tribute Wine declined in the first half of 2021, and the proportion of extra-provincial income decreased by 2.84 percentage points compared with the end of 2020.
Taking Kouzijiao as an example, although it has continued to open up markets outside the province in recent years, the effect is very small. According to the semi-annual report of 2021, the sales revenue of Kouzijiao in Anhui Province accounted for 78.88%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points year-on-year. The continuous increase in the proportion of sales revenue in the province and the growth rate of dealers outside the province are lower than in the province, which means that the market outside the province is expanding slowly. In the past three years, the proportion of sales revenue outside Anhui Province was 15.52%, 16.75%, and 19.66% respectively, can it break through the "two" word at the end of this year?
In addition to the above "two moves", Gujing Tribute Wine continued to promote resource integration, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Huanghelou Wine, the only chinese wine in Hubei Province, in April 2016, and joining hands with Mingguang Wine in January 2021. At present, Gujing Tribute Wine is a liquor company with "three brands", "four aromas" and "three real estate areas".
Gujing Tribute Liquor may be the "hope of the whole Anhui liquor", while aligning with the revenue target of 20 billion yuan, it is also expected to take the lead in becoming the head liquor enterprise. Taking the operation situation in 2020 as an example, Gujing Tribute Wine achieved operating income of 10.202 billion yuan, ranking 7th; achieved a net profit of 1.855 billion yuan, ranking 6th - 10 billion revenue, which is usually considered to be the "admission ticket" of first-line liquor companies.
However, even if It is Gujing Tribute Wine, it is difficult to achieve 20 billion operating income in 2025, and it is necessary to maintain an annual operating income growth of 14.21%. Throughout the past three years, the growth rate of Gujing Gongjiu's operating income has slowed down year by year, with 24.65%, 19.93% and 1.20% in 2018-2020, respectively.