It's a real and magical national narrative: the widely considered terrorist, long-depraved Taliban fought for two decades, forcing the world's most powerful army to run away in disgrace.
Wen / Ba Jiu Ling
We may all have fragments of memory about Afghanistan: Afghan women with masks on their faces, fierce Taliban in tattered robes, Bamiyan Buddhas blown up, American soldiers in ornate equipment, and so on.
15 minutes, which is the length of the first international call made by minibus, to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.
On the other side of the phone, the voice is low and urgent; on the other side, the atmosphere is tense and exciting.
There is a shopping mall in Kabul called "ChinaTown", which is the "base" of Chinese businessmen in Kabul. Today, the periphery of the 3-square-kilometer square has been erected with steel mesh specially shipped through Chinese containers, and the business premises have been closed to strengthen the anti-theft net.
The square and the business premises are equipped with loaded security personnel, patrolling day and night.
Four months ago in Chinatown, courtesy of an interviewee
Naturally, this defensive configuration is not against the Taliban army, but against those who take advantage of the fire. At this time, "cows, ghosts, snake gods" such as robbers, thieves, and drug addicts are the most likely to haunt.
With the experience and vision of many Afghan Chinese businessmen and other parties, the vague Afghanistan in the news began to become clear.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="14" >01</h1>
It's been a week since the Taliban took charge of Kabul, the Afghan capital.
A few days ago, a video that was widely circulated on the Internet told the general trend of the US military and the Afghan government it supported:
When the American transport plane took off and retreated from kabul airport, a large number of Afghans chased the plane, hoping to board the plane, and a dozen or so people even grabbed the fuselage, so that there was a scene of someone falling from the sky.
There is no doubt that no one can successfully escape by picking up a plane.
Kabul airport chaos, Afghans fall from a height (Source: CCTV News)
This U.S. military transport plane does not stop to save these poor people, as it does in american blockbusters, leaving only a fleeting black shadow.
This is a group of people with psychological breakdowns. Sun Fei, a Heilongjiang trade merchant who has been in Afghanistan for two years, analyzed the minibus, and there are at least 3 types of people:
The first category is those who have previously served the U.S. military and fear Taliban retaliation, such as intelligence personnel;
Second, there were rumors at the time that there were flights at Kabul Airport that did not require visas and passports, and a large number of people who did not know the truth poured in and followed the trend to catch the plane;
The third category is airport maintenance personnel who are suddenly unemployed.
The first left is Sun Fei, courtesy of the interviewee
There are 5 million citizens in Kabul inside and outside the airport, facing a city out of order and the most horrific and barbaric Taliban elements in the eyes of most of the world's media.
The women of Kabul are no less relaxed than the people who pickpocket planes, and they are most worried about the Taliban's "Islamic fundamentalism".
More than twenty years ago, in 1996, when the Taliban first entered Kabul, 16 bans were issued against women: women lost their right to education, the right to work, and could not meet men who were not related by blood... By 2001, it was not even possible to wear tights, appear at attractions, etc.
A handwritten letter from Afghan female director Sakhre Karimi, which has been screened on multiple social platforms around the world, is emblematic of this concern. In her letter, she appealed:
They will deprive women of their rights, we will be pushed into the shadows of the family, our voices, our expressions will be silenced. When the Taliban came to power, there would be no more girls in schools.
In a world where "isolationism" prevails, such appeals may only earn some tears.
Nowadays, most of them lock their doors and windows, dare not go out, and have no choice but to wait.
Closely related to this are the merchants of Kabul. Many stores are afraid of getting into trouble, and have destroyed the materials such as women's posters they posted in their homes.
But not everyone can tolerate possible threats. A large number of people have already dragged their families and fled to the outskirts.
Some people panicked, some people were worried, some people fled, and some people welcomed.
A considerable number of Afghan men have long been tired of the hegemony of the Americans and the corruption of the government, and they welcome the Taliban into the city.
For example, according to Sun Fei's understanding, the Americans are almost untouchable authorities in the local area, and the average Afghan is very afraid of the Americans, and even dare not discuss them directly, and can only stay away. The reason is that they may be detained and investigated by the authorities.
The demands of these people, including the Chinese, are similar: "I hope that the Taliban will quickly establish a functioning system of government."
"If someone robs us, if there are bandits or thieves, who should we look for?" A Shandong native who has been doing business in Afghanistan for two decades, Yu Minghui, who is the secretary of the Afghan Chinese Merchants Association, told the minibus.
5th from the left is Yu Minghui (Source: Afghan Industry and Trade)
In Kabul, every group, every class, every individual views the Taliban's rise to power in terms of their own interests, which is difficult to say consistent, and some discussions in the outside world may not be within the scope of many people's thinking.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="52" >02. The locals are not surprised</h1>
There are still many impressions that need to be changed.
On July 8, Biden announced the timing of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is expected to be August 31. On August 11, the U.S. Department of Defense said that "the Taliban will encircle Kabul within 30 days," and as a result, within four days, the Taliban occupied Kabul, so that the U.S. planes retreated in a hurry.
On the other hand, the U.S. intelligence community generally believes that the Afghan government will collapse within 6 months of the U.S. withdrawal. Today, 42 of Afghanistan's 43 provinces are under Taliban control.
In terms of strength comparison, Afghanistan has 300,000 regular troops personally trained by the US military, and the Taliban is led by students from refugee camp schools (Taliban means religious students in Persian), and most of them are 70,000-80,000 "peasant army" of young farmers.
This seemingly impossible result has made many people talk about it.
Afghan Congress Square, courtesy of the interviewee
Why are Afghan government forces so vulnerable?
For outsiders, this is a problem. But for those living in Afghanistan, it may not be surprising.
For the Afghan government, Yu Minghui's direct feelings in the past two decades are: inefficiency. "Originally, I could do a thing for three days, but I couldn't do it in three months, and there were too many opaque places." He said to the minibus. For example, civil servants have a more common phenomenon of "late arrival and early departure".
Both Yu Minghui and Sun Fei mention corruption. Sun Fei gave two examples:
First, the Afghan government built an 800-kilometer highway, and the United States gave $400 million, equivalent to $5 million for one kilometer. But it actually cost only $40 million.
Second, last year, the Afghan Embassy in the United States repaired a wall and spent $1.82 million.
It can be supported by Yu Minghui and Sun Fei's statement that the "Global Corruption Perceptions Index" of the international organization "Transparency International" has been at the bottom of the global position since 2004. For example, in 2019, Afghanistan ranked 173rd out of 180 countries and regions in the world.
Not only the Afghan government, but also the U.S. military, which actually holds real power.
According to Brown University's War Cost Project, from 2001 to April 2021, the United States spent about $2.261 trillion on the war in Afghanistan.
This huge amount of money has made Afghanistan an "amusement park" for some of the US military.
Examples that can be referred to are: the British "Independent" disclosed in 2019 that the US military spent $6 million to airlift 9 goats from Italy to Afghanistan; spent $150 million to build villas for staff; spent $486 million to buy 20 G222 cargo aircraft, of which at least 16 were idle for a long time...
A local insider revealed to the minibus:
A shell of the US military generally cost tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan, but often went to blow up a tent with no one inside, and even conspired with the local people to blow up their cars, and after the explosion, the people pulled another car, and finally divided the commission given by the arms dealer.
This is reminiscent of a similar plot in the movie King of War starring Nicolas Cage.
One could argue that corruption is a universal problem that cannot be completely denied.
But corruption is an unbearable burden for Afghanistan. The reason is that Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world. GDP per capita in 2020 was $586.6, nearly one-twentieth of the average GDP of Chinese. About 39.1 per cent of the population is living in absolute poverty on less than $1 a day.
According to the Chinese Embassy in Afghanistan, in Kabul, many laborers work less than a week in a month, and some workers only receive about $60 a month.
Ordinary family doorway scene, courtesy of the interviewee
Such a situation is obviously unsustainable.
The minibus also learned from the above-mentioned insiders that some government forces in Afghanistan have been in arrears of wages for a long time, from 3 months to half a year; in addition, there is a lack of compensation for combat sacrifices.
In many ways, the Afghan government has behaved like an "unsupportable Afghan fighter."
For example, various fields have long been subject to U.S. intervention. Including the release of policies, the dissemination of the media, the interests of the industry, etc. For example, one of Afghanistan's main foreign trade products is wool, and the largest company controlling wool exports is the United States company.
During critical periods, policies are chaotic and destructive to people's livelihoods.
For example, a few months ago, the Kandahar government issued a policy that first "did not allow motorcycles to bring people" and then simply did not allow motorcycles to be ridden. "Kandahar is very poor and doesn't let ride a motorcycle how to work!" Sun Fei, who lives mainly in Kandahar, said.
In addition, there are curfews, all-day internet disconnection policies, etc., which have caused great inconvenience to the lives and work of ordinary people.
In stark contrast, when the Taliban occupied Kandahar, life and business activities quickly returned to normal. These days, Sun Fei, who runs business in Pakistan, has received messages from a number of Afghan colleagues, all of which are feedback on the safety of the situation and beckon him to go back early.
Courtesy of respondents
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="100" >03.Putting aside politics, the development potential is more worthy of attention? </h1>
It is deficient to talk only about the direction of politics.
The more pressing issue may be the economy. Making the cake bigger first will effectively alleviate various internal contradictions, which is a ready-made successful experience in many countries.
For example, women's rights are lagging behind. This is a pervasive problem in countries dominated by Islamic culture, while the situation is more optimistic in wealthier countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Surprisingly, the United States has spent more than $2 trillion in Afghanistan over the past two decades, but it has not transformed Afghanistan from an extremely backward agricultural country into a slightly decent industrial country.
In an Aug. 16 televised address, Biden responded as follows: "The U.S. mission in Afghanistan should never be nation-building, but to prevent terrorism on U.S. soil." ”
So, when we look back at afghanistan's nearly 50-year history, war is the only theme:
Afghanistan became independent from British colonialism in 1919. In the 50s and 60s, the development was relatively fast. But it also fell into the struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union.
◎ In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and after its withdrawal in 1989, Afghanistan immediately fell into civil unrest.
◎ In 1994, the student armed Taliban rose to power in 1996.
◎ After the 9/11 incident in 2001, the US military launched the War in Afghanistan in the name of counter-terrorism, and the Taliban fell.
◎ The war continued for twenty years until the Taliban regained power.
As a result, economic problems are ignored and the gap between rich and poor is widening due to widespread stagnation in development. The fact is that Afghanistan has considerable potential for development.
With 32.2 million people, Afghanistan ranks around 50th in the world in terms of population size and is a country with an upper-middle-sized population.
In terms of labor resources, the rural population of Afghanistan has reached 23 million, and the urban population is 7.7 million. Among them, the population under the age of 15 reached 15.4 million, accounting for 47.7%.
For developed and some developing countries that are basically urbanized and agonizing over fertility rates, this is a considerable wealth of labor and a consumer market that can be tapped.
Afghanistan has 16,429 primary and secondary schools of all types, with a student population of 9.589 million. A total of 166 universities and research institutions of various types have a student size of 425,000. With an educated population of about 31 per cent, it is likely to be an important economic driver.
There are also 4.6 million Afghans sheltered worldwide. In the future, after the political stabilization of Afghanistan, some of them may return home, bringing new ideas and various economic resources to Afghanistan.
Displaced Afghans
In addition to population resources, Afghanistan is also a country with extremely rich energy and mineral resources. The Afghan government estimates that its energy resources are worth more than $3 trillion. It has the characteristics of "many varieties and large reserves". Therefore, Afghanistan is also known as the "poor man lying on the gold mine". This is the resource base on which Afghanistan can rely for its future development.
In a short period of time, an Afghan country with a strong modern atmosphere will rise up from the ground, which is unlikely to be possible, but these basic conditions can at least prove that the Afghan economy is promising.
Roadside fountain in Kandahar, courtesy of the interviewee
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="136" >04. </h1>
In terms of Afghanistan's GDP performance, the growth rate in recent years has been around 2%-3%, and there have been negative growth in some years, such as -2.4% in the 2015/16 fiscal year.
In summary, the problem is that Afghanistan has a large population but a low quality population;
◎ First of all, poor medical conditions are almost recognized.
According to data released by the Afghan Ministry of Public Health and the World Health Organization, on average, 55 of every 1,000 babies born in Afghanistan die before the age of 5, and about 41% of children under 5 years of age are stunted.
"A neighbor next to me, when his daughter was two years old, slept at night, got up in the morning and died, and then a friend's child died when she was four or five years old." A local Chinese told the minibus.
Specifically, there are only 641 hospitals in Afghanistan with a population of more than 30 million, with a bed ownership rate of 4.5 per 10,000 people, coupled with a serious shortage of medical and health equipment, a shortage of medical personnel, and 80% of health centers in various regions are short of medical care. Many Afghans have had to travel to neighbouring countries for medical treatment, such as Pakistan, India, and the United Arab Emirates.
◎ Second, Afghanistan lacks an industrial base.
Afghanistan's industrial output accounts for only 14.6% of the national economy, dominated by light industry and handicrafts.
That's interesting. Yu told Minibus that in 2008, he built a steel mill in Afghanistan. When the steel mill was built, it caused a sensation in Afghanistan, and the reputation of Chinese as a "builder" was a hit. The steel mill was also transferred from a polluting company in Baoding, Hebei Province, to Afghanistan.
Today, the main products supplied by Chinatown are: solar panels, plastic products (baskets, basins, chairs, etc.), electrical appliances, furniture, daily chemical products, etc., which are still basic supplies.
"It can produce very little on its own, and the quality is relatively inferior, and it needs some good quality materials from China." Yu Minghui said this.
The harsh living environment solidified Afghanistan's chieftaincy society. In chieftained societies, large families are a common phenomenon.
For example, Kandahar has more than 1.3 million settlers, and these more than 1 million people come from 1,000-2,000 families, and some families can reach 5,000-6,000 people.
Therefore, it is quite common for a father to do even a small shop with several sons, or an older brother with several younger brothers. "There is basically no cost to people doing business, how do you fight with others?" Sun Fei said.
Kandahar exhibition, courtesy of the interviewee
Under the influence of comprehensive factors, the business environment in Afghanistan is very poor. According to the World Bank's Doing Business 2020 report, Afghanistan ranks 173rd out of 190 economies in the world.
It can be found that the Taliban are clearly aware of the urgency of economic construction. Especially in the past two months, it has repeatedly proposed to the Chinese government and Chinese businessmen that "we hope China will help rebuild Afghanistan."
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="164" >05.A little summary</h1>
On August 19, local time, the Taliban announced the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan".
Kabul on August 22 (Source: Afghan Industry and Trade)
It's a real and magical national narrative: the Taliban, considered terrorists, have long since been defeated for two decades, forcing the world's most powerful national army to run away, and with the collapse is a system of civilization that was built up by chance.
Many people are pessimistic about the future of Afghanistan. For example, Biden said in a recent speech: "Afghans themselves are not willing to fight for themselves." ”
On the other hand, today's Taliban has also made some people optimistic: there is no such thing as the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddha. Within a few days of entering the city, a number of policies of considerable quality were announced. Here are some examples:
(1) Women have the right to work and education;
2. Amnesty" government personnel and members of the security forces;
3. Calls on civil servants to return to work as soon as possible;
4. Appeal to citizens to return to work.
But what is certain is that for an extremely backward country, future development is destined to be a long and tortuous process.
Combined with some Afghan media interviews, the words of Chinese businessmen in Afghanistan may be more grounded: "The problem can be solved slowly, at least it is still alive, but the war is a dead person every day" "It does not matter who is in power, it can no longer be corrupt."
Author | Limpo | When the value is edited | Link
Responsible Editor | He Mengfei | Editor-in-Chief | Zheng Yuanmei