See 2021| Wang Qing: Next year's car market recovery can be expected, high growth or unsustainable

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Recently, Xinhua Automobile interviewed Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, to conduct in-depth exchanges on the operation of the automobile market this year and the trend of the automobile market next year.

Is the recovery in the auto market expected?

Wang Qing: This year's auto market has shown rare resilience, under the impact of the epidemic, the auto market can rebound rapidly, and in recent months to maintain a continuous growth rate of 10%, is the performance of the specific stage of development of the entire auto consumption. At present, automobile consumption is in a medium-speed growth range, and according to forecasts, the potential growth rate will remain 1.5-2% in the next decade. From this point of view, the previous two or three consecutive years of negative growth have still inhibited some consumer demand. Under the condition of major progress and achievements in epidemic prevention and control, the suppressed consumer demand will be gradually released. This is a superposition factor. That's why in the second half of the year, the entire automotive market grew very fast. Therefore, the recovery of the automobile market is expected, and the entire amplitude, including the rebound, is relatively close to what was expected.

What are the characteristics of automobile consumption?

Wang Qing: Overall, automobile consumption is in the process of rebounding. From the perspective of regional consumption structure, this year, the market in South China, Central China and North China rebounded relatively quickly; from the perspective of price, the market in the range of 150,000-200,000 and 200,000-300,000 grew relatively fast; from the perspective of displacement, 1.6-2.0L is still an important area for consumption.

Previously, the South China market, including some coastal markets in the east, the growth rate was slowly declining, but this year there was a rebound, and we judged that it was related to two major factors. First, exchange, these areas are the traditional consumption growth areas are relatively fast, and in the long run, it is also a relatively large number of areas. In addition, related to the upgrading of the consumption structure, whether from the perspective of exchange or new purchases, or from the perspective of the release of demand from the epidemic, it has led to structural changes in the entire automobile market.

What is the overall market performance this year, and what kind of trend will there be next year?

This year should still be our judgment at the beginning of the year, -2% or so. It may not be positive, but the overall judgment is that the growth rate will rebound sharply compared with -8.2% last year.

Next year's automotive market is both sustainable and, to some extent, unsustainable.

It can be sustained that if the potential growth rate is still around 3 percent, the current real growth rate is still lower than the potential growth rate, so the momentum of the recovery will continue. Unsustainable is that the growth rate of more than 10% for so many consecutive months is significantly higher than the potential growth rate, and from a longer period of time, this period of time is weakened with the effect of the release of the effect on the growth of the automobile market, and the growth rate, especially the growth rate of each month, may begin to decline in the second quarter of next year. So, the recovery is sustainable, but high growth is unsustainable.

Overall, we judge that the entire car sales will continue to maintain a rebound trend. One is the macro economy, one is the epidemic control, and the other is the policy of the whole consumption. In these three major factors, without particularly obvious fluctuations or changes, it is realistic and objective to achieve small positive growth, such as the growth rate range of 0-2.

Which market segments will have good opportunities, and where will the risks and challenges of the auto market be next year?

Wang Qing: In the short term, SUVs are still a hot spot in demand. At the same time, with the structural changes of consumption structure upgrading travel and the change of family structure, household MPV will become a relatively fast-growing market in the future. At the same time, with the change of travel scenarios, more attention is paid to traffic congestion, or urban travel under energy-saving and environmental protection conditions. This kind of purchase process or the purchase of small or micro cars in the process of additional purchases, the demand for electric vehicles will grow, and will maintain a relatively fast speed.

The most important risks and challenges facing the auto market next year are the macro economy. Because the macro-economy is to affect consumption, such as income, employment expectations and small and micro business owners' consumption capacity, middle-income class consumption capacity level, etc., these will affect the consumer market, and the car as a very important part of the consumer market, irreplaceable will be transmitted to the automobile market, so the macro-economy is still the most important factor. It is affected by changes in endogenous dynamics as well as some of the more complex and changeable political landscapes abroad.

In addition to the macro-economy, consumption policy, is not to introduce a more active tax policy to promote the consumer automobile market, in the limited license of the city moderate liberalization, the renewal of stock cars, out of the policy on the entire automobile market has a very large impact. Another point that cannot be ignored is the prevention and control of the epidemic. Although the overall epidemic prevention and control in our country is in a relatively stable pattern, if we repeat it in the next step, it will have an important impact.

What is the judgment on the new energy vehicle market?

The growth of the new energy vehicle market is not independent. First of all, it is related to the stage of large automobile consumption. For example, it is not in the stage of high-speed growth, it is in a stage of medium-speed growth, so first of all, it is a car, and the change in demand for automobiles will definitely affect the demand for new energy vehicles. In addition, for example, the upgrading of consumption structure, changes in travel scenarios, and changes in travel demand are all influential.

At the same time, it is also related to policies, such as whether to introduce subsidy policies, changes in purchase tax policies, and the state's support and advocacy for new energy vehicles have a great impact on this field.

Enterprises should grasp the general trend of the automobile market, do a good job in product adjustment, service adjustment and brand building. No matter how innovative the business model is, how the market changes, sooner or later the cake is there, can you not divide more, but also rely on your own hard work, take the initiative to dock consumers and policy changes. This is the most important point.