Reporters Hao Yajuan and Zhang Roaming reported in Shanghai and Beijing
From "three stability" to "two maintenance", the market believes that the real estate credit policy seems to be undergoing subtle changes.
However, since the second half of 2021, the default of real estate enterprise bonds has increased, the impact of the sharp decline in the dollar bonds of housing enterprises and the overdue debt of housing enterprises on mortgage loans is still not to be underestimated.
In response to these problems, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, recently said publicly: "At present, there are individual problems in the real estate market, but the risks are generally controllable, reasonable capital needs are being met, and the overall situation of the healthy development of the real estate market will not change." ”
Will banks' credit granting policies to the property market be loosened? "China Business Daily" reporter learned in the interview that in the next stage, the real estate financing policy may lie in the housing-related loan policy arrangement is expected to maintain a certain degree of flexibility, specific to the adjustment of the property market credit policy of different cities and different banks, it remains to be seen.
Real estate financing easing?
Recently, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the Central Bank, said at the financial statistics conference held by the central bank for the third quarter of 2021 that from the data point of view, in the first three quarters of this year, the amount of personal housing loans issued remained stable, and the amount of commercial residential sales in the same period basically matched, among them, a small number of cities House prices rose too fast, personal housing loans were subject to some constraints, the rate of house price rise was suppressed, and after house prices stabilized, the supply and demand relationship of housing loans in these cities will also return to normal.
This is in line with the previous central bank's proposal to "safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers".
On September 29, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stressed at the real estate finance work forum that around the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices, and stabilizing expectations", accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, adhere to the positioning that houses are used to live, not to speculate, adhere to the real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, continue to implement the long-term real estate mechanism, and accelerate the improvement of the housing rental financial policy system; financial institutions should follow the principles of rule of law and marketization. Cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to jointly maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
Zou Lan said that some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the "three-line and four-file" financing management rules for 30 pilot housing enterprises, and the requirement that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red file" enterprises must not be added, and the misunderstanding is that banks are not allowed to issue new real estate development loans; after the enterprise sales collection repays the loan, the reasonable newly started projects that should have been supported cannot get loans, which also causes some housing enterprises to tighten the capital chain to a certain extent.
In this regard, Chen Sheng, president of the China Real Estate Data Research Institute, said that financial institutions, including banks, should correctly interpret the "three red lines", and if the total loan liabilities of housing enterprises have declined, banks should continue to support the loan demand for new projects.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Real Estate, analyzed to reporters that the central bank had previously proposed "safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", and this time proposed that "real estate development loans have short-term overreactions", which fully reflects the central bank's concern for personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans. From the keynote point of view, paying attention to the downward pressure of housing enterprises and the market, and ensuring sufficient credit delivery, have become important features of the fourth quarter. According to this, it can be considered that the credit policy will have a wave of systematic and comprehensive relaxation actions, which is essentially conducive to the improvement of the cash flow of housing enterprises, and will have a more positive impact on the project marketing and project development investment of housing enterprises.
Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the banking industry of Everbright Securities, also pointed out that the real estate financing situation has eased slightly, mortgage loans have been released or accelerated, and the real estate financing policy (especially for potentially risky enterprises) may be that the policy arrangement of housing-related loans is expected to maintain a certain degree of flexibility and not to be "one size fits all".
From "three stability" to "two maintenance", does it mean that the bank's housing-related credit will release a loose signal?
Ma Hong, a senior researcher at zhixin Investment Research Institute, told reporters that in the long run, in the context of "housing and not speculation" and new urbanization construction, the real estate industry still has a lot of room for development and opportunities, financial institutions should meet the reasonable financing needs of qualified real estate development enterprises, meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and provide reasonable financial support on the basis of risk control, so the current policy orientation on the one hand is intended to calm down the excessive anxiety about the real estate industry in the short term. On the other hand, it is also aimed at maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry for a long time.
CICC pointed out that although the central bank has increased the "two safeguards", the focus of this part will be on supervision, rectification of the misappropriation of closed fund management and other chaos, while the mortgage issuance in areas with stricter restrictions will be moderately adjusted in accordance with laws and regulations, but this does not mean that the real estate credit will be greatly relaxed.
Song Hongwei, research director of the Tongce Research Institute, believes that although the central bank has a stable tone for the stable delivery of credit in the real estate market, the specific credit line measures have not yet been clearly issued, and it will take some time for the credit situation of real estate development loans to change.
"From the perspective of the policy of the regulatory level, it is said that the bank's credit policy for the property market will be relaxed in the next step, but the situation is more complicated and is still being observed." A person from the investment banking department of a state-owned bank said so.
Song Hongwei said frankly that the adjustment of the quota is more complicated and has certain difficulties, for example, the difference in the city, the difference in the concentration of bank real estate loans and the difference in the scale of housing demand, how to adjust and match, it takes a certain amount of time to study.
It should be noted that although there are some recent manifestations of policy relaxation, such as credit policy relaxation, there is actually a time lag for it to really affect market fundamentals. Yan Yuejin analyzed: "From the historical law of the cooling cycle, it will often last for 8 months. At present, it can be considered that the real estate market has clearly entered a cooling cycle. It is necessary to pay close attention to all kinds of market transactions in the cooling cycle, pay attention to the control of risks, and prevent all kinds of prices from falling too quickly or market panic. ”
How banks control property risks
On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released the macro data of the real estate market in September, showing that the amount of real estate investment in September was 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -3.47%, and the growth rate "turned from positive to negative" and entered a substantial decline stage. Song Hongwei believes that behind the above data reflects the problem of the capital chain of housing enterprises, and there is no extra money to get land. Due to tight cash flow, many projects have been stopped, and even after the land is acquired, the start of construction has been affected. "Since the beginning of this year, a number of housing companies have been exposed to the problem of debt default. It is understood that the risk of corporate capital chain rupture is further spreading, and this trend has a tendency to expand. Song Hongwei said that adjusting the mortgage amount is the most urgent task at present, because this is the most effective period for revitalizing the current debt concentration of housing enterprises, and it is the only one that does not violate the premise of "housing and not speculation". "The credit line needs to increase the amount of mortgage loans in areas with a faster urbanization process, support the reasonable requirements for just buying a house, and at the same time tighten the amount of some areas with weak industrial base and net population outflow." In addition, it is also necessary to distinguish between the new home mortgage loan and the second-hand house loan amount, and the new house loan amount will have a greater impact on the current debt problem of housing enterprises. ”
Not only that, but the debt pressure of developers may also lead to more debt defaults of individual customers, which ultimately brings greater debt pressure to banks.
Lawyer Sun Wei, a senior partner at Shanghai Haihua Yongtai Law Firm, pointed out that according to Article 24 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Law in the Trial of Cases Involving Disputes over Contracts for the Sale and Purchase of Commercial Housing, "if the purpose of the commercial housing guarantee loan contract cannot be achieved, the parties request the termination of the commercial housing guarantee loan contract shall be supported." Therefore, due to the breach of contract by the real estate developer, the "Pre-sale Contract for Commercial Housing" was terminated, and the "Loan Contract" and "Mortgage Contract" were also terminated due to the inability to achieve the purpose of the contract.
Previously, the SPC tried a case involving a bank mortgage loan, in which the developer's breach of contract led to the termination of the Commercial Housing Pre-sale Contract, and the court ruled that the mortgage customer's mortgage was repaid by the developer and the buyer did not need to repay.
Sun Wei pointed out that in this case, the real estate developer should first return the down payment to the buyer, bear the corresponding liability for breach of contract according to the contract, and compensate the buyer for losses; at the same time, it should also return the remaining principal and interest of the loan under the Loan Contract and the Mortgage Contract to the borrowing bank.
In this case, Ma Hong told reporters that considering the current problems of insufficient cash flow, large repayment pressure of current liabilities and difficult financing in some real estate development enterprises, in the traditional sense, the risk of residential mortgage loans is smaller than that of housing enterprises, but if the loan is repaid by the developer, it means that the quality and security of the loan have declined, and commercial banks should increase the risk level of the corresponding loans.
A person from the risk department of a state-owned bank told reporters that banks generally choose to cooperate with real estate when carrying out personal mortgage loan business and become the designated mortgage loan bank of a certain real estate, and this ruling of the SPC makes banks more cautious in selecting developers to avoid the pressure caused by personal mortgage loan defaults when similar events occur.
"Mortgage loans are usually low-risk, but commercial banks should also improve loan review and not ignore supervision." For example, a mortgage borrower should have sufficient solvency, a stable source of income and a credit rating. At the same time, the "Pre-sale Contract for Commercial Housing" signed between the borrower and the developer should be reviewed, including the compliance, legality and authenticity of the materials. At the same time, appropriately reduce the loan risk exposure of borrowers with poor reputation and do a good job of risk protection. Ma Hong said.