The top ten gold stocks that institutions are unanimously optimistic about on Wednesday

Shengyi Technology (600183) Company Information Update Report: 2021Q3 Land Acquisition and Storage Affects Non-Economic Profit and Loss Downstream Demand Boom Differentiation

Category: Company Institution: Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Liu Xiang/Lin Chengyu Date:2021-10-19

The company released the 2021Q3 performance forecast, land collection and storage affected non-recurring profit and loss, maintaining the "buy" rating company issued a performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters is 2.33 to 2.36 billion yuan, YoY + 79 ~ 81%, of which the net profit attributable to the mother in 2021Q3 is 920 million to 950 million yuan, and the net profit after deduction of non-attributable to the mother is 720 million to 750 million yuan.

We maintain our earnings forecast and expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent for 2021-2023 to be 28.9/35.6/3.92 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.25/1.54/1.70 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE of 17.4/14.1/12.8 times. The company is a leading manufacturer of domestic copper clad laminate, benefiting from the fr-4 product price increase, the company's supply capacity to diversify, the industrial chain synergy advantages are significant, and gradually move towards the material solution provider, maintaining the "buy" rating.

The company's Q3 single quarter price and cost scissors gap narrowed, high value-added product demand is still strong Company 2021Q3 Because Shaanxi Shengyi old factory 3 land use rights were collected by the government, increasing net profit by 180 million yuan, resulting in a difference between non-net profit and net profit attributable to the mother. On the price side, due to the good customer structure of the company, the price of copper clad laminate is stable compared with that of peer manufacturers; on the cost side, due to the high cost of copper foil, special resin, glass fiber and other materials, the gross profit margin decreased month-on-month. Downstream demand is differentiated, home appliances, low-end consumers weakened from Q2, while the growth logic of server platform iteration, automotive products, and packaging substrates is being deduced, and the demand for high value-added products is strong. 2021Q4 Some PCB manufacturers may be affected by factors such as power rationing, but the overall peak season, downstream orders are abundant, the company is expected to slightly increase the price to transmit cost pressure, and it is expected that the gross profit margin of the copper clad laminate business will rise month-on-month.

Product structure optimization or into the highlight of 2022, the company's valuation is expected to increase Throughout 2021, the company's single-quarter profits continue to be released, successfully transmitting the upstream raw material cost pressure, but due to the cyclical attributes of copper clad laminate price increases, the company's valuation continues to be under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, we expect the company's production capacity to increase by 15% year-on-year, and the new production capacity is mainly composed of packaging substrates, Mini-LED, high-speed materials, HDI and other high value-added products, and the company is expected to smooth the price fluctuations of traditional FR-4 products through product structure optimization. Combined with the multi-point blossoming of emerging applications such as downstream communications and automobiles, the company has changed from the role of overseas manufacturers to the leader of independent research and development, and we expect that the company's overall profitability and ROE will continue to rise steadily in the future under the business strategy of "becoming stronger and bigger", fully reflecting growth and supporting the company's valuation.

Risk warning: the pace of downstream base station construction slowed down; downstream demand was weak; raw material prices rose; and the company's new product imports were less than expected.

Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006) Company Brief Evaluation Report: Short-term performance pressure due to increased expenses is expected to improve in the long run

Category: Company Institution: Capital Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chen Meng Date: 2021-10-19

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2021, achieving operating income of 1.084 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, a year-on-year increase of +19.56%; a net profit attributable to the mother of 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +33.31%, a net profit attributable to the mother of 160 million yuan after deduction of non-attributable funds, a year-on-year increase of +23.85%; and a basic earnings per share of 0.41 yuan.

Comments:

Revenue was in line with expectations, and the increase in expenses put short-term pressure on performance. In terms of quarters, Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved revenue of 4.05/3.55/323 million yuan, +34.74%/+16.11%/+7.85% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the mother of 0.80/0.52/0.41 billion yuan, +46.68%/+50.2%/+1.14% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother after deduction of non-attributable net profit of 0.77/0.46/0.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -210.8%/+33.56%/-9.69%. The company's Q3 single-quarter revenue performance growth rate has declined compared with the first half of the year, we believe that the main reason is that the third quarter is a relatively low season for the consumption of hygiene products and the base is relatively high in the same period; the second is that the company actively adjusts its business strategy, focuses on the core products of sanitary napkins, and continues to reduce the scale and proportion of ODM business; and third, the company's online and offline marketing efforts have increased. It is expected that with the further upgrading of the company's product structure and the continuous improvement of brand power, the company's overall operating performance is expected to improve.

The product structure continued to be optimized, and the gross profit margin increased in the third quarter of the single quarter. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was +1.89pct to 45.21% year-on-year, and the net profit margin was +1.46pct to 15.81% year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin of single Q3 was +0.62pct to 44.17% year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -1.53pct to 12.0% year-on-year. In terms of expense ratios during the period, the company's sales expense ratio in the first three quarters was +0.32pct to 18.76%, management and research and development expense ratio was +0.76pcpts to 8.15%, and financial expense ratio was +0.05pcpts to -0.21%.

Operating cash flow declined slightly, while operating efficiency remained stable. The company achieved net operating cash flow of 127 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of -12.4%, of which cash/operating income received from the sale of goods and services (%) -5.88pct to 109% compared with the same period last year; in terms of operating efficiency, the number of days of accounts receivable turnover increased by 3.15 days to 26.74 days from 23.59 days in the same period last year, the number of days of accounts payable turnover increased from 55.49 days in the same period last year to 7.77 days to 63.26 days, and the number of inventory turnover days increased from 66.6 days in the same period last year The number of days decreased by 4.52 days to 62.07 days, and the operating efficiency remained basically stable.

Investment advice: Independent brands and channels have broad prospects for deep cultivation and maintain a "buy" rating. The company has strong production strength and brand accumulation in the field of sanitary napkins in China, and has strong development strength. Taking into account the weak demand in the industry and the progress of the company's marketing expenses, we have lowered the company's profit forecast, and expect the company's net profit attributable to the mother in 2021-2023 to be 2.37/3.03/377 million yuan (the original forecast value is 2.51/3.23/408 million), corresponding to the current market value PE of 36/28/23 times, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: The expansion of new development markets is less than expected, and the cost of raw materials fluctuates significantly.

Digital China (000034) Company Brief Report: New business maintains high growth

Category: Company Institution: Capital Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zhai Wei / Li Xingjin Date: 2021-10-19

Event: On October 14, Digital China released its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2021. In the first three quarters of 2021, it is expected to achieve revenue of 82.8-89.2 billion yuan, an increase of 30.01% to 40.06% year-on-year. It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 40-55 million yuan, down 89.84%-86.03% year-on-year, and achieve a non-net profit of 493-515 million yuan, an increase of 10.02%-15.02% year-on-year. The company's cloud service business continues to maintain a high growth rate, revenue is expected to increase by 50%-60% year-on-year, at the same time, the company continues to invest in its own brand business, focusing on key industries and core products, revenue is expected to increase by 110%-130% year-on-year.

Revenue grew steadily, and increased investment dragged down spot profits. In the first three quarters of 2021, it is expected to achieve revenue of 82.8-89.2 billion yuan, an increase of 30.01% -40.06% year-on-year, and Q3 is expected to achieve revenue of 26.1-32.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13.15% -40.89% year-on-year. It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 40-55 million yuan, down 89.84%-86.03% year-on-year, and achieve a non-net profit of 493-515 million yuan, an increase of 10.02%-15.02% year-on-year. Q3 In the single quarter, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 172-187 million yuan, an increase of 14.59% to 24.60% year-on-year; it is expected to achieve a non-net profit of 153-176 million yuan, an increase of 7.78% -23.51% year-on-year. The growth rate of net profit in the current period is lower than the growth rate of revenue, mainly because the company has increased its product research and development efforts in the field of independent brands and actively expanded the market, thus driving the company's overall expenses to increase significantly. We expect that with the continuous release of the follow-up Xinchuang, the company is expected to change from the investment period to the release period and usher in the release of performance.

Xinchuang's business has grown at a high level and promoted product diversification. In response to the call of the state to accelerate the promotion of "new infrastructure", the company launched a new layout based on the "Kunpeng + Ascend" private brand, and quickly became one of the industry leaders. In the first three quarters, the company's own brand business revenue is expected to increase by 110%-130% year-on-year, and we believe that the growth of Xinchuang's business is affected by Huawei's sanctions. Therefore, while developing PC products based on Kunpeng processors, the company is also carrying out diversified layouts, completing tests of PC products based on Loongson and Feiteng processors, and will be put on the market in the second half of the year. With the innovation and cooperation of the company and many partners in the field of Xinchuang, it is expected to further improve the Xinchuang product line and promote the rapid growth of the business.

Investment advice: As a leader in the domestic MSP industry and an important manufacturer of servers and machines in the field of Xinchuang, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the trend of Xinchuang. We expect the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 to be 101.266, 111.899 and 124.208 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother to be 8.29, 10.21 and 1.272 billion yuan, and the EPS to be 1.26, 1.55 and 1.93 yuan, respectively.

First coverage, giving a "Buy" rating.

Risk Warning: The risk of policy advancement falling short of expectations and intensifying competition in emerging products.

Wanhua Chemical (600309): Cost increases and overhauls drag down the single quarter performance of Q3 without changing the medium and long-term growth

Category: Company Institution: Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Liu Qiang Date: 2021-10-19

Event: On the evening of October 18, 2021, the company released the third quarter report of 2021, and the operating income in the first three quarters was 107.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +117.99%; the net profit attributable to the mother was 19.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +265.32%. Among them, the single-quarter operating income in the third quarter was 39.661 billion yuan, +116.43% year-on-year, +9.13% month-on-month; and the net profit attributable to the mother was 6.011 billion yuan, +139.13% year-on-year, and -12.99% quarter-on-quarter.

Investment essentials

The single-quarter performance of Q3 2021 was slightly lower than market expectations, and the overall beauty: from 2020Q1 to 2021Q3, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.377 billion yuan, 1.458 billion yuan, 2.514 billion yuan, 4.692 billion yuan, 6.621 billion yuan, 6.909 billion yuan and 6.011 billion yuan in a single quarter, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit attributable to the mother was 19.542 billion yuan, +265.32% year-on-year, and the performance was beautiful. Q3 2021 single-quarter profit fell 12.99% sequentially, slightly below market expectations, and the main reasons we analyzed were as follows: (1) the cost of raw materials increased, and the gross profit margin in the single quarter of 21Q3 fell by 3.26pcts to 26.9% sequentially; and the net profit margin fell 3.96pcts to 15.39% sequentially. In the third quarter of 2021, the average price of pure benzene raw materials was 8,068 yuan / ton, +142% year-on-year; the average price of propane CP was 648 US dollars / ton, year-on-year +78%; the average price of butane CP was 647 US dollars / ton, year-on-year +87%; the average price of 5000 kcal thermal coal was 1,055 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of +104%. (2) The company has more maintenance in the third quarter, and we expect to mainly affect the profit of the petrochemical sector. In the third quarter of 2021, the company's polyurethane series products and petrochemical products output decreased by 8.93% and 13.09% respectively, and sales volume increased by 4.18% and fell by 4.59% respectively. Specific maintenance devices include: Yantai Industrial Park MDI device (1.1 million tons / year), BC Company MDI plant (300,000 tons / year) and TDI plant (250,000 tons / year), Yantai Industrial Park TDI device (300,000 tons / year), PO device (240,000 tons / year), PDH device (750,000 tons / year).

Self-hematopoiesis, three major sectors to lay the foundation for medium- and long-term growth: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's research and development expenses were 2.149 billion yuan, +50.64% year-on-year, and the continuous high research and development investment supported the company to improve quality and efficiency and enter more new materials. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's fine chemicals and new material series products output (+40.5%), sales volume (+39.4%), operating income (10.803 billion yuan, +99.3%) maintained high growth. Under the background of "carbon neutrality", the company is still self-hematopoietic, focusing on polyurethane plates, petrochemical plates, fine chemicals and new materials, laying out a number of polyurethane (MDI/TDI/polyether, etc.), new materials (nylon 12/PC/bisphenol A/TPU/degradable plastics/citral/POE/battery materials, etc.) and petrochemical industry chain (MMA/IB/DIBE/NPG/POCHP, etc.) projects.

Profit Forecast and Investment Rating: Based on changes in volume prices, we adjusted the company's forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent from 2021 to 2023 to 249.15 billion yuan (previous value 23.784) billion yuan, 255.25 (previous value 25.072) billion yuan and 265.50 (previous value 25.705) billion yuan, EPS 7.94 yuan, 8.13 yuan and 8.46 yuan, corresponding to PE 13.2X, 12.9X and 12.4X, respectively. Considering the company's strong technical strength, self-driven management, self-hematopoiesis, the development of the three major sectors, and the number of incremental projects, to promote the company's medium- and long-term growth, and maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk warning: the price of raw materials and products fluctuated sharply, the project production and profitability were less than expected, and the macroeconomic decline.

Guanglianda (002410) company brief evaluation report: high performance growth Construction business has entered the delivery period

Event: Guanglianda released the first three quarters of 2021 performance forecast, the first three quarters are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 450 million yuan - 520 million yuan, an increase of 95.84% - 126.31%; Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company of 164 million yuan - 234 million yuan, an increase of 64.42% - 134.59%.

The cost value-added service has grown significantly, and the construction business has entered the delivery period. In the first three quarters, the company's operating income maintained rapid growth, mainly due to the full transformation of the digital cost business into the cloud, the steady and rapid growth of revenue, the growth of value-added services such as engineering information was obvious; the early contract of the digital construction business entered the delivery period, and the revenue was gradually recognized. The company accelerated digital transformation, improved a comprehensive budget management system from strategy to execution, strictly controlled expenses, and continuously improved per capita efficiency, which also had a positive impact on performance growth.

The company's cost business entered the deep water area. The digital cost business is the company's main business, and the growth is remarkable under the cloud transformation. In 2021, the company's digital cost business will fully enter the cloud transformation. The company in the sub-business sub-region implementation of the transformation at the same time, to achieve a steady growth in the cost of business revenue, 2016-2020 average annual growth rate of 20%, in the first half of 2021, the new transformation area for the first time to achieve positive revenue growth, benefiting from high-end customers and large enterprise customers to cloud driven, the last four regions of the transformation speed compared with other regions in the same period has accelerated, the first half of the standard product online renewal rate exceeded 80%, the overall customer satisfaction continued to improve. With the full completion of the cloud transformation of the cost business, the company will continue to operate customers in depth, provide different products and services for different segments of customers, and actively promote data value-added services. The company's cost business is expected to maintain long-term growth momentum.

The construction business implements the "contract + payment collection" strategy, and the revenue is gradually recognized in the second half of the year. At the beginning of the year, the company adjusted the rhythm of digital construction business, giving priority to expanding contracts in the first half of the year, the amount of newly signed contracts increased by more than 100% over the same period of the previous year, and in the second half of the year, the focus was on the implementation of delivery guarantee income and payment collection, and the income was gradually recognized. Guanglianda digital construction business adheres to the platform development path, through the "platform + component" model, to provide construction enterprises with platform solutions covering project management and enterprise management, including BIM + smart site series products at the project end and project-enterprise integration products for the construction enterprise level. By forming a platform capability, Guanglianda provides customers with integrated solutions, while competitors can only provide certain products, thus building their own competitive barriers.

The company in the first half of the year to sign a single, to attack the industry key customers, due to the implementation cycle and other factors, it is expected that there will be a certain mismatch between short-term orders and revenue, but with the company's construction business PaaS platform continues to mature, and constantly optimize the customer-centric operation and management model, improve operational efficiency, the company's construction business long-term good.

Investment advice: Considering the formation of the company's business, the expense ratio is expected to gradually improve, and the profit forecast is raised, and the company's net profit for 21-23 years is expected to be 653, 9.66 and 1.237 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 97.7%, 47.9% and 28.1%, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk warning: The progress of cloud transformation is less than expected; other tracks are expanding less than expected.

Xinbo Shares (003038): Photovoltaic aluminum frame boutique enterprises have entered the fast lane of development

Category: Company Institution: Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Jiamin Zheng/Zheyu Wang Date:2021-10-19

Report Summary:

The auxiliary materials link has strong capital attributes and attaches importance to the investment opportunities brought about by changes in the supply chain. With the increase of component concentration and the expansion of sales scale, the importance of supply chain control has become more prominent, and the strong cooperation between auxiliary materials enterprises and component enterprises has become a trend. The aluminum frame industry has strong capital attributes, and the industry is still relatively scattered. After the listing of enterprises, it will trigger qualitative changes, and the capacity to expand production capacity, supply capacity and capital advance will be greatly improved, and it is expected to achieve rapid market share growth.

Domestic aluminum profile processing boutique enterprises, accelerating the expansion of photovoltaic applications. The company specializes in the research and development, production and sales of industrial aluminum profiles, industrial aluminum components and architectural aluminum profiles, with the whole process of manufacturing capabilities. In the past four years, the steady expansion of the company's production capacity has led to continuous growth in performance, and the average annual compound growth rates of the company's operating income and attributable net profit from 2017 to 2020 are 30.20% and 44.55%, respectively. The company has accelerated the expansion of photovoltaic customers, accounting for more than 45% in 2020, covering LONGi, Jinko, JA Ao and so on.

With a 40 billion yuan industry space and steady growth, the listing will help companies achieve rapid expansion. The market size of photovoltaic aluminum frame will be nearly 40 billion yuan in 2024, which is larger than the adhesive film and backplane. The photovoltaic auxiliary materials link faces two major challenges: 1) in order to maintain normal operations, it is often necessary to carry out a large number of bank loans and discounts on commercial bills of exchange, and the high financial costs weaken profitability; 2) a large amount of working capital and high asset-liability ratio are required to maintain normal operation, and insufficient funds seriously restrict the expansion of production capacity, which in turn leads to limited supply guarantee capabilities and difficulties in cooperation with downstream large customers. The listing of aluminum frame enterprises will greatly solve the problem of funds and achieve rapid improvement in scale and profitability.

The company's profitability has steadily improved, and its production capacity and structure have been rapidly upgraded. The aluminum frame industry adopts the model of "aluminum price + processing fee", the profit model is stable, and the company's ROE is about 20%. The listing of the company will enable the production capacity to be rapidly increased from the existing 70,000 tons to more than 260,000 tons in 2 years, achieving rapid growth in volume.

In addition, the company's three major segments of product profitability: industrial aluminum components> building aluminum profiles> industrial aluminum profiles, with the optimization of production capacity structure, the proportion of structural parts is expected to rise from 30% to more than 60%.

Profit forecast: The scale of the photovoltaic aluminum frame market is no less than that of the adhesive film industry, and the capital barriers of the photovoltaic auxiliary materials link will make the listed companies have significant advantages, and the expansion capacity, capital advance ability and customer supply chain guarantee ability will be greatly enhanced. The company seizes the development opportunities, optimizes the product structure while rapidly expanding production and strengthening the scale effect, enhances profitability, and is expected to rapidly expand the market share of photovoltaic frames. The net profit for 2021-2023 is expected to be 1.29/2.51/346 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE of 40x/21x/15x, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating.

Risk warning: Industry competition intensified, production expansion was less than expected, and performance forecasts and valuation judgments did not meet expectations

Jiangsu Leasing (600901) first coverage report: deep ploughing industry focus on small and medium-sized to create asset-side characteristic competitive advantages

Category: Company Institution: Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Gao Chao Date: 2021-10-19

"Manufacturer + region" transformation business rapid development, high ROE high dividend yield low bad, obvious expectation difference The company adheres to the "manufacturer + region" two-line layout, the transformation business grows rapidly, the characteristic business model of binding leading manufacturers and focusing on small and medium-sized customer groups has a strong competitive advantage, forming high interest spread, low bad, high ROE excellent financial performance; the company's management is long-term stable, the professional ability is outstanding, the equity incentive mechanism is perfect, and the long-term strategy is clear, laying the foundation for the strategy implementation and sustained growth of profitability. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 2.175/26.69/3.122 billion yuan, +16%/+23%/+17% year-on-year, ROE to reach 16.0%/17.9%/19.0%, EPS to be 0.73/0.89/1.05 yuan, respectively, and it is expected that the current stock price corresponds to 7.3/6.0/5.1 times pee in 2021-2023, respectively, and the company's valuation has a margin of safety and the fundamentals are expected to be poor The issuance of convertible bonds is conducive to the implementation of long-term strategies, and for the first time covers the "buy" rating.

Deep ploughing industry, focusing on small and medium-sized, characteristic manufacturer leasing model to build a competitive advantage company relies on The mature manufacturer leasing business model of Faba Leasing in Europe and the global manufacturer cooperation resources to create an innovative manufacturer model. The manufacturer model promotes mutual benefit and win-win results between the company, manufacturers and customers. The company uses the manufacturer's channel to obtain customers in batches to reduce the cost of the exhibition industry and achieve trinity risk control; the manufacturer uses the company to reduce the cost of the sales system and expand the scale of sales. The manufacturer model has the advantages of retailization, replicability, high spreads and strong barriers, and the proportion of the company's manufacturer model business continues to increase, and the number of cooperative manufacturer dealers has increased from 632 at the end of 2020 to nearly 1,000 at the end of June 2021. The company has been bound to leading manufacturers of high-quality equipment for a long time, with competitive barriers, and the future growth space lies in the replication of subdivided industrial tracks and the improvement of penetration rate. In terms of regions, the company deeply cultivates the local business in Jiangsu, focusing on the financial needs of small and micro enterprises in the fields of local auto parts and industrial processing.

The risk control ability is outstanding, the provision is sufficient, and the gold lease license brings the advantage of debt cost The company's risk control ability is outstanding, the asset quality is good, and the non-performing rate is lower than the average level of the banking industry for a long time. At the end of June 2021, the company's non-performing rate was 0.94%, the provision rate was 3.8%, and the provision coverage ratio was 404%, and the provision was sufficient. As a financial leasing company, the company's liabilities are mainly based on short-term interbank funds, and the cost of liabilities has obvious advantages; the company's assets have a long duration and relatively rigid yields, and the decline in market interest rates is conducive to the expansion of the company's spreads.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic and interest rate fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the company's earnings; the risk of the company's asset quality decline; the company's earnings growth is not up to expectations.

Huayou Cobalt (603799): Hua Zhang played the "lithium" can not think of "cobalt" amount

Category: Company Institution: Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Jiamin Hu/Yang Hu Date: 2021-10-19

This article is the third in-depth of our Huayou: the company is accelerating its development with the concept of "ten years of task, five years to complete", and is about to usher in the harvest period of integrated layout; wet smelting of laterite nickel ore will bring α of industrial change, and low-cost nickel will promote the significant decline of ternary costs.

The chapter is played, and the progress of all links of the company's integration link is clear. 1, precursor H1 handed over a brilliant answer sheet: 1) wholly-owned full production, joint venture volume, to dispel market doubts. 2) The profit per ton is measured at 5300 yuan, which is more than doubled compared with the same period last year, and the net profit margin is 5.75%, which is not lost to the industry leader. 3) The research and development of new products continues to advance, and NCMA has been designated by high-end car companies in Europe and the United States. 2, the positive pole: 1) Bamo delivery completed, the first half of the year ranked first in the domestic ternary cathode shipments; 2) the joint venture Leyou + Puhua completed the climb in the first half of the year, a new round of expansion or has begun; 3) cooperation with government funds to further expand production capacity. 3. Nickel and cobalt resources: 1) Mine: Huayou holds 15.39% of the equity of Weida Bay Nickel Industry, corresponding to more than 1.4 million gold tons of nickel ore. 2) Park: Qingshan is Indonesia's second park, Weidabei Industrial Park, holding 24% of the shares, laying a solid foundation for the company's further rooting and development in Indonesia in the future. 3) Holding a 24% interest in Veston, continuously guaranteeing energy supply.

Phoenix "nickel" mallet, can not be "cobalt" amount, understand the α of wet smelting of laterite nickel ore. We have broken down in detail the smelting path and cost of laterite nickel ore-battery nickel (MHP, high ice nickel and other intermediates), and the wet smelting of laterite nickel ore is significantly better than the fire method in terms of cost (and potential cost increase), and has a huge advantage over the fire method in terms of carbon emissions. The future fire-high-nickel-sulfate path defines the marginal cost of nickel sulfate, while the low-cost wet path earns at least the excess revenue of less than the cost of the fire path. For Huayou, at least earn a single gold ton of 3000-4000 US dollars of excess profits.

Huayou's integrated layout carries the hope of high nickel. 1) Iron lithium and ternary have a broad space. 2) High nickel has a clear cost reduction path: first of all, the downward price of nickel and cobalt + superimposed integrated layout saves processes & bears lower processing costs, which is expected to reduce the cost of single GWh by about 800 million yuan; secondly, technological progress has brought about a reduction in unit consumption, which is expected to reduce costs by more than 15%. Then consider the recycling, the recovery residual value of the ternary battery will make its cost advantage more obvious. 3) Expect the price of nickel and cobalt to decline, the cost of ternary is significantly reduced, and lithium iron is not lost. It is estimated that in 2025, in the case of lithium price of 95,000, nickel price of 100,000, cobalt price of 250,000 (above tax included), the initial system cost of high-nickel ternary batteries and iron lithium batteries are 500 yuan / KWh (excluding tax), and the ternary cost does not lose lithium iron.

Profit forecast and rating: The company has actively moved from the global cobalt industry leader to the global lithium battery material leader, and the integration link has accelerated significantly, "ten years of task, five years to complete". Considering the company's completion of the delivery of Bamo's equity to achieve control and the acceleration of the company's business development, we once again revised the company's profit forecast, and the profit is expected to be 3.00/5.02 billion yuan in 2021-2022, corresponding to PE of 41.9/27.5X, respectively. Strongly bullish, maintaining a "Buy" rating.

Risk Warning: Sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; the progress of the Indonesian nickel project is less than expected

Kibing Group (601636): Sales decline caused by cold repair and production, and single-box profits hit a record high

Category: Company Institution: BOCI Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Yu Sijie/Chen Haowu Date:2021-10-19

The company released the third quarter report of 2021, with revenue of 10.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 64.2%; Attributable net profit was 3.66 billion, an increase of 200.9%; EPS1.36 yuan / share. Glass prices continued to be high in the third quarter, with average prices reaching record highs. The company's single-quarter profit also reached a record high.

Points to support the rating

Revenue and profit exceeded expectations, various financial indicators are good: in the third quarter, the company's revenue was 3.99 billion, an increase of 44.2%, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 106.4%, and the company's revenue and profit continued to maintain rapid growth. Q2 operating cash flow of 1.56 billion, an increase of 44.9%, continued steady growth. In the third quarter, the company's gross profit car was 57.5%, an increase of 14.9pct; The expense ratio was 14.4%, an increase of 1.4pct. The company's expense ratio remained stable and its profitability continued to rise.

Flat glass has declined year-on-year, and the unit profit index has reached a record high: we estimate that the 202103 company's flat glass is about 28,200 heavy boxes, a decrease of more than 10%, mainly due to the company's Q3 cumulative 1,800t/d capacity conversion or cold repair, and it is expected that Q4 still has 1,150td capacity to switch to cold repair. The unit price was 134.7 yuan, an increase of 53.8 yuan, and the average price of a single quarter reached a record high; the cost of a single box was 60.7 yuan, an increase of 9.3 yuan, and the price of soda ash continued to rise to push up the cost of glass; the gross profit of a single box reached 74.0 yuan, an increase of 44.5 yuan; the net profit of a single box was 52.0 yuan, an increase of 30.7 yuan. The unit earnings indicator hit an all-time high.

Under the high prosperity of the industry, attention should be paid to the rise in raw material prices: real estate dredging drives the industry boom to increase, and the sales volume and price of enterprises rise together. However, the rise in the price of soda ash, crude oil and other raw materials cannot be ignored, and it is expected that the cost of a single box of some enterprises will exceed 60 yuan. If the supply and demand of the follow-up industry return to normal, the impact of the salty fluctuation should be paid attention to. The scope of the third phase of the employee stock ownership plan is expanded: no more than 629 employees are involved, and the plan is 8.49 yuan to purchase 27.69 million repurchased shares, accounting for 1.0% of the total share capital, and the scope of incentives has been expanded. The assessment target requires that the compound growth rate of revenue in 2021 is not less than 10%, and the indicator has been completed in the first three quarters of this year. Valuation companies have performed in largely line with expectations, and we have slightly adjusted our earnings forecasts. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021-2023 will be 157.7, 182.1 and 21.17 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother will be 44.3, 48.5 and 5.18 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 1.65, 1.80 and 1.93 yuan, respectively. Maintain the company's Buy rating.

The main risks faced by the rating

The industry boom declined, production costs rose too fast, and new business development was less than expected

Xin Fengming (603225): Q3 company performance is under pressure The current polyester filament fundamentals continue to improve

Category: Company Institution: Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Jin Yiteng Date: 2021-10-19

Q3 The company's performance declined month-on-month, the current polyester filament fundamentals continue to improve, maintaining the "buy" rating On October 15, the company issued a pre-increase announcement for the first three quarters of 2021, and the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.90-1.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 632%-655% compared with the same period in 2020. Among them, Q3 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 576-636 million yuan, down 23% -30% month-on-month. Q3 Filament spread narrowing, production and sales are flat, a drag on the company's performance, we lowered the 2021-2023 profit forecast, it is expected that the company's 2021-2023 attributable net profit is 26.91 (-3.84), 35.76 (-1.52), 41.01 (-4.36) billion yuan, corresponding to EPS are 1.76 (-0.43), 2.34 (-0.32), 2.68 (-0.56) yuan / share, the current stock price corresponds to PE They are 8.8, 6.7 and 5.8 times, respectively. At present, due to the dual control of energy consumption, the whole industry chain of filament is destocked, the price and price difference continue to be repaired, the company's expansion plan is clear, the growth is prominent, and the "buy" rating is maintained.

At present, the whole industry chain is obviously destocked, the profitability of the "PTA-filament" link is obviously repaired, and the production and sales are expected to recover Q3 The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 576-636 million yuan, down 23.0-30.3% month-on-month, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of 528-581 million yuan, down 27.6-34.2% month-on-month. According to Wind data, the average price of P3 is 7522 yuan / ton, up 143 yuan / ton from Q2, the average price of PTA is 5088 yuan / ton, up 436 yuan / ton from Q2; but the average price difference of P3 is 1,330 yuan / ton, down 359 yuan / ton from Q2, and the average price difference of PTA is 424 yuan / ton, up 114 yuan / ton from Q2. Therefore, the profitability of filament yarn has declined significantly compared with Q2, and the profitability of PTA has been repaired. At present, under the dual control of energy consumption, the "PTA-polyester filament-textile" industrial chain is insufficient, and the destocking of each link is obvious. According to Wind data, as of October 14, THE POY inventory was 12.5 days, a sharp drop of 5.4 days from before the eleventh, at the lowest point since the end of July; as of October 15, the POY spread was 1,526 yuan / ton, the PTA spread was 681 yuan / ton, the profitability repair was obvious, and the production and marketing recovered synchronously.

The company's production capacity expansion plan is clear, the future profit center will be gradually rising, growth highlighted According to the company's announcement, the company's current filament production capacity has reached 6 million tons; at the end of 2021, the company will also put 300,000 tons of filament and 600,000 tons of polyester staple fiber, which is the company's first involvement in the field of staple fiber, referring to the industry's leading position.

The company has planned a PTA capacity of 4 million tons, and expects to reach 10 million tons of PTA capacity by 2024, moving towards the goal of "two 10 million tons". In the future, the company's profit center will gradually rise, and the growth is worth looking forward to.

Risk warning: oil prices have dropped sharply; downstream demand is weak; and production capacity investment is less than expected.