Source: Wu Assets Wang Qiaoxia
Today, the central bank carried out a 30 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the form of interest rate bidding, and the amount of funds due today was 70 billion yuan, so today it achieved a net return of 40 billion yuan of funds. This is the fifth consecutive day of net return of funds in the open market. Today's reverse repurchase operation volume is the same as yesterday' 30 billion yuan, indicating the central bank's unwillingness to invest too much money. In February, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a stable and good development trend. First, the demand in the manufacturing market has rebounded, and production tends to be active. Second, domestic and foreign demand has improved, and imports and exports have continued to stabilize and improve. Third, the new kinetic energy continues to exert force, and the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry continue to have a good momentum of development. Fourth, the confidence of enterprises in future development has continued to increase.
The supply and demand aspects of the industry are as follows:
The China Steel Association yesterday announced that the output of crude steel in the key enterprises in early February was 1.7178 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons, an increase of 3.56%; the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.4064 million tons, an increase of 1.82% over the previous month.
This week, the overall profitability of the national steel mills 86.5% rebounded slightly by 1.84 percentage points, the blast furnace operating rate of 75.14% rebounded slightly by 0.28 percentage points, and the social inventory of rebar fell for the first time, of which the thread inventory fell for the first time in 2017, down 60,000 tons to 8.53 million tons; the hot coil inventory continued to increase by 58,000 tons to 2.87 million tons; the five major steel social stocks fell slightly from the previous month. The purchase volume of Shanghai terminal line snail was 34499 tons, a decrease of 5.86% month-on-month, an increase of significant year-on-year, and less than 4,000 tons in the same period of 2016.
This week, due to environmental protection production restrictions and Tangshan steel billet price increases, the market bullish sentiment is high, and steel prices continue to be strong at the beginning of the week. Last week, with the guidance price of Shagang Steel lower than market expectations, the high profits of steel mills, and the introduction of the "intermediate frequency furnace" identification, the market bulls reduced their positions and profited, and steel prices weakened. At present, on the one hand, local de-capacity continues to advance, phased environmental protection upgrades, and supply contraction is expected to boost steel prices; on the other hand, large-scale local infrastructure construction is expected to drive steel demand and boost steel prices, but trade data and policy trends are unfavorable, and there are hidden worries on the demand side. Overall, local infrastructure and capacity reduction are bullish on steel prices. It is worth noting that Tangshan's environmental protection production restrictions are implemented.
Operation suggestion: Today's hot coil thread spread is 20, lower than normal value, you can pay attention to the screw spread arbitrage.
Risk Warning: For reference only, do not make investment advice, according to this trading risk at your own risk!