Wenjin "Three Sessions": The Situation on the Peninsula Is Improving, and "Supporting Facilities" are Needed to Advance Denuclearization

South Korean President Moon Jae-in's three-day visit to North Korea, which began in Pyongyang on September 18, came to an end today. This is the third meeting between the top leaders of the ROK and the DPRK this year. On the 19th, Kim Jong-un, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK, and Moon Jae-in of the Republic of Korea signed the "Pyongyang Joint Declaration for September" (hereinafter referred to as the "Pyongyang Declaration") at the Pyongyang Hundred Gardens State Guesthouse.

Achievements and progress from Panmunjom to Pyongyang

The Pyongyang Declaration is considered to be an important measure to further strengthen dialogue, ease tensions, promote exchanges, and ensure peace on the peninsula after the historic Panmunjom Declaration.

In the Pyongyang Declaration, the leaders of the two countries reaffirmed the principle of national autonomy and decided to continue to develop North-South relations in order to achieve national reconciliation and cooperation, firm peace and common prosperity. Developing the existing North-South relations until reunification is the aspiration and aspiration of the whole nation, and the two leaders will continue to work together to realize this nation's long-cherished wish.

Specifically, the DPRK and the ROK reached a consensus on six aspects: first, to stop military hostile relations in the confrontational areas, including the unarmed zone; second, to expand exchanges and cooperation; third, to strengthen humanitarian cooperation and resolve the problem of separated families; fourth, to demonstrate to the outside world the "spirit of the Korean nation" and promote north-South cooperation and exchanges; fifth, to continue close cooperation in the process of promoting the complete denuclearization of the peninsula; and sixth, Chairman kim Jong-un will visit Seoul in the near future.

Judging from the text of the Declaration, the greatest achievement of the Wenjin Conference is obviously in the areas of regional security and peace on the peninsula. As some media have commented, the DPRK and the ROK have exerted their respective subjective initiatives this time, taking the lead in making breakthroughs through bilateral channels before the relevant major powers reach a collegial agreement. For the respective national interests of the two Koreas, this move will help them seize the initiative on the Peninsula issue.

In addition, the highlights of the Declaration and the summit are also reflected in the economic field. Judging from the huge delegation brought by the ROK this time, especially the large number of financial and economic celebrities included in it, it is clear that, as highlighted many times in the Pyongyang Declaration, economic cooperation will become an important issue in the current and future exchanges between the DPRK and the ROK.

However, although the two sides have reached a positive consensus on future economic exchanges and cooperation at the summit level, the possibility of substantive breakthroughs in economic cooperation between the two countries is relatively limited in the short and medium term. The resumption of industrial parks and the expansion of trade flows are first faced by obstruction from the United States, which requires North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons before it can talk about economic issues. However, even if the two countries cannot sign a "big deal", as long as there is such behavior, trend, and scale, then from the perspective of strengthening political mutual trust between the two koreas and boosting the confidence of the two peoples in maintaining peace on the peninsula, Pyongyang and Seoul have gained something.

Expanding inter-Korean cooperation in the economic field was also the main topic of the talks, which included almost all major South Korean companies. From the perspective of the South Korean side, the huge delegation covering leading enterprises from all walks of life was sent to the DPRK for negotiations, which not only showed the role of strength, but also reflected sincerity. After all, what North Korea urgently needs is external economic assistance and cooperation. From south Korea's own point of view, promoting the development and construction of the "Great North" is also the long-cherished wish of the Blue House for many years, especially the main direction of the Moon Jae-in government. Strengthening economic cooperation between the DPRK and the ROK may objectively bring some new volatility factors to THE US-ROK relations and weaken the economic pressure of the United States on the DPRK.

Outlook: Overall good, do not rush to achieve

The "Wenjin Three Meetings" are obviously of greater positive significance to the development of the situation in Northeast Asia and to the promotion of peace and stability on the peninsula. While it is of positive significance to promote the DPRK's abandonment of nuclear weapons and the tru realization of the denuclearization of the peninsula, there are also some problems. Therefore, the joint efforts of the international community, including South Korea, supplemented by "supporting facilities" are needed to promote the steady progress of the Dprk nuclear issue in the right direction. Specifically, the possible problems are as follows:

First, the prospects for denuclearization and an end-war agreement are unclear. Logically speaking, for the long-term peace and stability of the peninsula, both are indispensable. At present, Wenjin's three meetings have only made a certain breakthrough in the final war agreement and peace on the peninsula, but the issue of denuclearization seems to have been shelved backwards. Its importance seems to have declined. This is also an important reason for the slightest concern of the international community.

Second, from the perspective of the difficulty coefficient, "achieving permanent peace and all-round cooperation on the peninsula" is more difficult than "achieving complete denuclearization of the peninsula" or "signing an armistice agreement on the peninsula"; and both are more difficult than "inter-Korean cooperation". In other words, cooperation between the two Koreas is the easiest and the beginning of the "reaction chain"; it is relatively difficult to achieve "all-round" cooperation – because it is the natural result of the resolution of the issue of denuclearization and sustainable peace on the peninsula, and it is also the long-term goal of all parties' efforts. It is important to understand this order of priorities to help the two Koreas, as well as other stakeholders, avoid making mistakes of direction and creating subversive consequences.

Third, the end-of-war agreement requires the signing of the four parties of China, the United States, the DPRK, and the ROK, and denuclearization still depends on the United States and north Korea. Therefore, although the DPRK-ROK summit can provide "positive energy" for the formal signing of the future end-of-war agreement, if it is too hasty in this process, it will not rule out the possibility of arousing the suspicion of the United States and other major powers, so as to "not achieve it if you want to be fast", but on the contrary, it will add negative uncertainties to the future permanent peace process on the peninsula.

Therefore, the heads of state of the DPRK and the ROK should proceed from the perspective of operability and feasibility for the sake of their own national interests, and while further expanding the initiative of the DPRK and the ROK and exerting their subjective initiative, they should actually proceed from the overall situation of the peninsula issue and appropriately consider the reasonable and legitimate interests and concerns and considerations of the relevant major powers. After all, the North Korean nuclear issue is not just a matter for the two Koreas; in the same way, the Peninsula affairs itself is also an important part of the security and strategic affairs of Northeast Asia and even the Asia-Pacific region, and is closely related to the core interests of several of the world's most important powers. What's more, South Korea itself is also an important ally of the United States in East Asia, and the US military base is still located on south Korean territory. Therefore, how to actively and steadily promote the established agendas and goals of the DPRK and the ROK, properly handle relations with other important powers, and coordinate positions is a severe diplomatic test that the Moon Jae-in administration will have to face in the future.

At the same time, as a good friend and good neighbor of the DPRK and the ROK, China has always supported the North and the South of the Peninsula in improving mutual relations and promoting reconciliation and cooperation through dialogue and consultation, and will continue to actively and actively promote and participate in Peninsula affairs in the future , stability and other international public goods.

All in all, the affairs of the peninsula are complex and changeable, and good things are many times. The current situation is generally good, but there are still hidden worries. Only the DPRK and the ROK and other relevant parties, with thorough handling and attention to coordination, can steadily advance the two routes of denuclearization of the peninsula and permanent peace, which are both different, closely linked, and indispensable; however, if they want to be fast, they will not be able to reach it, and the move of "driving a fast train" in a hurry to achieve success will easily lead to new negative variables, thus embarking on a fork in the road, or even driving backwards, and ultimately gaining more than it loses.

(The author is an associate researcher at Chongyang Institute of Finance, Chinese Min University)