CICC: Global electric breakthrough, next year is expected to sell tens of millions of sales

Industry Update:

According to the experience of the S-shaped growth curve and the latest industry chain guidelines, we expect that the sales of electric vehicles are expected to exceed 10 million in 2022, the industrial chain calculation basis will be revised, and the long-term investment framework will be reconstructed.

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Paradigm shift, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles entered a period of steep growth

Since 2021, global new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates have accelerated: in the first nine months of 2021, new energy sales in China, eight European countries and the United States were 214/131/430,000 units, respectively, +193%/105%/101% year-on-year. In September, the new energy penetration rates of China, eight European countries and the United States reached 17.3%/24.3%/5.3% respectively, +11.9ppt/14.3ppt/2.8ppt respectively.

We believe that the rapid growth of the new energy automobile industry comes from the resonance of policy-side support, the listing of high-quality models on the supply side, and the shift in consumer characteristics on the demand side. Based on the experience of the S-shaped growth curve, we judge that global vehicle electrification has broken through the critical point or entered a period of steep growth.

In 2022, the global new energy vehicles will sell tens of millions of sales

Looking ahead, chip concerns have gradually drifted away, the expectation of easing the supply of new energy vehicles has formed, and the follow-up industrial trend has accelerated upwards. From top to bottom, we expect that in 2022, the penetration rate of new energy in China/Europe/the United States will reach about 20%/25%/12% respectively, and the corresponding sales volume will reach 500/300/2 million vehicles, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 50%/50%/150%, and the total global sales volume will reach tens of millions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70%.

The historic change of the industry has brought investment opportunities in the whole industry chain

From the bottom up, the head intelligent electric vehicle companies lead the industry, of which Tesla's cumulative global sales in the first nine months of the world were 627,000 units, +97% year-on-year; the sales of Weilai, Ideal Automobile and Xiaopeng Automobile reached 6.6, 5.6 and 55,000 units respectively, a substantial increase of 152%, 294% and 195% respectively.

Recently, Xiaopeng and other car companies continue to release new intelligent driving technology, Tesla once again handed over high-quality financial reports and announced global price increases, the new pattern of global automotive technology has been clear, and the advantages of head car companies have emerged. At the same time, according to the above forecast, we believe that the whole industry chain of new energy vehicles such as power batteries and upstream materials and lithium battery equipment will continue to show investment opportunities.

Valuation and strategy

In terms of investment strategy, we are optimistic about the whole vehicle and parts link, pay attention to the head of new energy vehicle enterprises, and the leading parts and components enterprises in electric intelligence, including Tesla industrial chain, electric drive industry chain: Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal Automobile, Changying Xinxin, Yinlun Shares, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Tuopu Group, and can also pay attention to Hengshuai shares and double-ring transmission (all not covered);

Lithium battery and four major material links: Ningde, Enjie, Putailai, German Nano, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Rongbai;

Upstream raw material links: It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng, Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt, and it is recommended to pay attention to Tibet Mining and Shengxin Lithium Energy (all not covered).

Lithium battery equipment link: It is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality enterprises in the subdivision track: for the battery cell yield impact on the key of the middle and back road process equipment manufacturers leading intelligence, Hangke Technology, Haimuxing; recommend the structural parts manufacturer Kodali that grows in tandem with the battery installed capacity, and pay attention to the current automation rate is still low, and the current demand growth is accelerating The mold section automation equipment manufacturers have benefited technology (not covered).

Risk: The shortage of chips in the industry exceeded expectations; the launch of new models was less than expected.

Source: CICC

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