If you want to say that the energy "player" has fluctuated the most in recent years, it must be international crude oil. The energy source first created a historical phenomenon of "negative oil prices" under the haze of the epidemic last year, and then with the recovery of the global economy, oil prices rebounded, rising below $75 / barrel at one point in July this year. Then oil prices began to cool down again, almost falling below the $60 threshold.
And now, driven by the energy crisis, international oil prices have begun to soar, as of October 19 this year, the US oil price is quoted at $83.03 / barrel, once again breaking a new record. So far, international oil prices have risen for 8 consecutive weeks, and since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have risen by 63.8%. In the face of such a brave momentum of international oil prices, some analysis in the market has "poured cold water" on international oil prices.
According to the latest media reports on Wednesday (October 20), Michael Underhill, chief investment officer of Capital Innovations, said that as international oil prices rise higher and higher, it will bring economic pressure to many consumers, which will prompt them to buy less oil, or replace oil with other energy sources, so that the demand for oil will fall and international oil prices will fall. He expects international oil prices to fall by 20 percent in the coming year.
Michael Underhill stressed that the way to curb high oil prices is high oil prices. Because from the past oil prices rise and fall, international oil prices will always usher in a sharp decline after a sharp rise.
However, before that, some well-known institutions have also made predictions for the subsequent performance of international oil prices. Commodity trader Mercury Energy Group believes that with the arrival of winter, international oil prices are likely to rush to a high of $100 / barrel.
It is worth mentioning that OPEC + has repeatedly rejected the US request for additional oil production, and then announced a reduction in the oil demand in the market this year, and the organization has been worried that blind production increases will cause an oil supply surplus in the international market in the future. However, OPEC+ believes that if the price of natural gas remains high, this will indirectly drive up the price of international oil.
Text | Zhang Jianlin title | Gallium Huang Figure | Lu Wenxiang | Lu Jiamin