There is important news in the market today.
A price increase from BYD:
Since November 1, BYD C08M and other batteries have begun to raise prices to transmit the pressure of raw material price increases, with an amplitude of not less than 20%.
It looks like a lot, but in fact, this battery is only supplied in a small amount.
The point is that this is a signal to raise the price again after multiple price increases!
The cost of the battery is transmitted, and the price of the midstream hard gas rises.
So what is the downstream impact?
According to the calculation of the agency, it mainly depends on the price range of the whole vehicle.
A small number of low-priced models have an impact, and most of the mid-to-high-end models have low price sensitivity and are not expected to affect.
Battery price transmission, from upstream to midstream, and finally passed on downstream.
This is the normal law of business.
Since the beginning of this year, consumer and lithium iron batteries have raised prices many times, and the market has become accustomed to it.
From the perspective of stock prices, the two giants of Ningde Times and BYD have both broken through new highs, and they are not afraid of possible adjustments during the quarterly report, which can be said to have brought huge returns to shareholders.
So where are the batteries expected for next year?
Price increases are not sustainable, there must always be new highlights!
The answer lies in the continuous breakthrough in battery technology.
Obviously, since the second half of the year, there have been more and more models of lithium iron phosphate, especially industry benchmarks such as Tesla to vigorously promote lithium iron phosphate.
Of course, not only lithium iron phosphate, there will be a new route next year.
The new route is called the large cylindrical battery.
A simple popular science:
The 4680 large cylindrical battery may become the mainstream of the next generation of cylindrical
4680 is the optimal result calculated by the calculated size, combining energy density and cost. The battery pack composed of 8,000 batteries in the past now only needs 1,000, which reduces the requirements for BMS to a certain extent.
After 4680, the future should no longer have modules, basically CTP-based, so the size of the battery cell should be based on the chassis design of the vehicle, thermal management, mold cooperation to do, but also have some cost considerations, the future 4680 battery may become the mainstream of the next generation of cylinders.
Tesla's 4680 large cylindrical battery is already in bulk supply.
Panasonic will supply in 2021 and LG will join the supplier in 2023.
Of course, there are domestic enterprises that are already in research and development, and are interested in seeing relevant information on the lithium battery industry website
The above is clear, then some opportunities next year, this year at the end of the year when the institution does net worth smashing, you can start to layout.
According to the available information, there are the following companies that have technical reserves and are about to mass production:
CATL Times, LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic, Ewell Lithium Energy, BAK Battery
Interested can follow.
LG, Samsung, Panasonic although it is a foreign company, but the core supplier of positive and negative electrolyte can be a domestic manufacturer, understand the idea on the line.
Another important piece of news is that Tesla has broken through the trillion market value.
Originating from Tesla's large order, the relevant analysis of the institution is as follows:
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the global car rental leader Hertz was on the verge of bankruptcy, and later injected $5.9 billion into an investment institution to help Hertz get out of the debt crisis.
The sales of used cars in the US market are generally 2-3 times that of new car sales, and in 2020, due to the decline in US auto trading volume due to the impact of the epidemic, demand was postponed to this year, and the chip shortage also forced some new car consumers to choose used cars, further boosting the popularity of used cars.
Hertz bought Tesla on the one hand because of its tightness in the second-hand car market and lower maintenance costs, on the other hand, Tesla can help it attract more consumer choices with high-end electrification differences in the rental market.
The delivery date of the new car of the key standard endurance version Model 3 has been scheduled until Next June, according to the research company iSeecars data, the current used Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling used car in the United States, the price is even higher than the new car, the average number of days of sales is only 16 days.
Hertz currently has an order of 100,000 tesla units, with deliveries expected to begin in early November with a 14-month lead time.
The cooperation brought Tesla a large order of $4.2 billion, and the increase in shipments of 100,000 vehicles was further improved
Tesla big orders, domestic suppliers natural chicken dogs ascended to heaven.
Brought some feedback from the A-share Tesla supply chain.
Tesla's industrial chain has indeed been sluggish for a period of time, and the performance of each branch leader is already very good, it should not be so weak, and there should be opportunities for rapid rotation.
I think it is a trend of the industry's overall valuation repair, and it is a good direction to do the performance rotation at the end of the year.
In fact, there are many similar directions.
For example, medicine, liquor and other defense sectors are also a type of choice.
Doing non-high-prosperity plates, there will be a dilemma of confusion.
Don't go in, look at the small yang line every day itchy heart.
Go in, just go up a day, pullback for a week.
This kind of entanglement is believed to be shared by everyone.
But what needs to be recognized is that at the end of the year, the direction of such a defensive counterattack will have to lower expectations.
Choose a direction to squat, 10-20 points a month is already very good.
Don't always think that you don't bother to go without starting at 30 points.
If the expectations are too high, they will definitely not be able to survive this market.
Final conclusion on the train of thought:
Battery price increases do not affect the existing industry pattern, and at the same time adjust the performance expectations of high school and high school.
Tesla's trillion market value, accelerating the layout of new technology large cylindrical batteries, the industrial chain has valuation repair expectations, considering defense, and doing the low-value rotation of Tesla's leading enterprises in the industrial chain is also a direction that can be considered.
There are many low-level directions to choose in the near future, but you must choose the plate that you can take, otherwise you will not easily sell!