On September 27, Zhu He, deputy director of the research department of the China Finance Forty Forum (CF40) and a young researcher, wrote a research article "The Truth About Exports". The article proposes that since July 2021, the pulling effect of the number of export products on exports has suddenly and rapidly declined, and the price increase of export products is the most important factor driving the year-on-year growth rate of export amounts. Rising raw material and freight prices are the main reasons for the increase in the prices of export products. This increase in the value of exports due to increased costs will not improve the profitability of small and medium-sized export enterprises, such as the steel and home appliance industries. This article updates the content, data and policy recommendations based on the above: in the future, as the US fiscal stimulus effect gradually fades, export companies will face both cost and demand pressures. China should work together from both the supply and demand sides to alleviate the difficult situation that enterprises may face. On the supply side, we should improve the supply elasticity of upstream industries and related products as soon as possible, reduce unnecessary administrative intervention in the supply of some commodities, and use market-oriented means to alleviate the current upward pressure on commodity prices. On the demand side, macro policies should focus on me, make timely efforts, maintain the stability of China's total demand, achieve a stable connection between this year and next year's macro economy, and avoid large fluctuations in the economy.
For example, at present, Uruguayan dairy products need to pay tariff rates of 6% for exports to China: whey 6%, milk powder and butter 10%, cheese 12%, UHT milk and infant formula 15%. Uzbekistan's main competitors, New Zealand and Australia, have signed free trade agreements with China and will achieve zero tariffs on dairy products to enter the Chinese market in 2024 and 2028 respectively. Fernandez, director of Conaprole, the largest dairy company in Ukraine and candidate for the chairmanship of the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association, said that if the free trade agreement cannot be signed, Ukrainian products will be in a relatively disadvantageous position in the face of competition from new Zealand and other countries, and there will be many difficulties in entering the Chinese market.