Look at the news Knows reporter Li Yao
2021-08-16 19:09
The Afghan regime "changed overnight".
The Afghan Taliban "did not bloodshed" into the capital Kabul, and President Ghani "fled" overseas overnight after embracing the Taliban deputies at the presidential palace, and international public opinion was in an uproar.
What are the Taliban's considerations for capturing the capital without bloodshed?
In the early morning of the 16th local time, Ghani spoke for the first time after leaving overseas, saying that leaving Afghanistan was a "difficult choice" to "avoid a lot of bloody conflict".
While speculation was rife about Ghani's whereabouts, afghan Taliban spokesmen repeatedly spoke out, stressing that the war in Afghanistan was over and promising to provide security for all citizens and diplomatic institutions.
Afghan President Ghani who "fled overseas"
The spokesman also said the Taliban would impose amnesty on Afghans working with Western governments and militaries, while saying preparations for the Taliban leadership's return to Kabul were underway.
In this regard, Li Shaoxian, dean of the China Arab Studies Institute at Ningxia University, pointed out that the Taliban's peaceful takeover of power is not only due to the situation, but also has the overall situation in mind.
The Taliban's strategic consideration in this regard is that a "peaceful seizure of power" can win the support of the domestic people and help consolidate power in the future. At the same time, the move is also aimed at gaining the approval of the international community, which has previously warned that it will not recognize any form of military seizure of power.
The streets of Kabul
What are the key problems for the Taliban to solve in order to gain long-term support from the people?
Today, the Taliban have successfully entered the presidential palace, and what will lead Afghanistan to go in the future has become the topic of everyone's greatest concern.
Just after the Taliban entered Kabul on the 15th, Nayim, a spokesman for atta's office, told Al Jazeera that after the war, the type of rule and the form of the regime would soon become clear. At the same time, he admitted that Ghani's "exodus" was not planned.
Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced on the same day that Afghanistan has set up a "coordination committee", including himself, Abdullah, chairman of the Afghan High Level Committee for National Reconciliation, and gulbuddin Hikmatiyar, the leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan and former Prime Minister.
Taliban spokesman Shaheen claimed that the new Afghan government established by the Taliban would include non-Taliban Afghans.
Coordination Committee
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese, pointed out that no matter how the Taliban negotiate with karzai, Abdullah and others who remain, it is certain that the form of power that will follow in Afghanistan will have a strong Taliban color.
And given its rather poor record in power from 1996 to 2001, domestic and international concerns about the Taliban once again in power have been shown. What kind of governance model will be adopted in Afghanistan in the future, whether women's rights and status can be guaranteed, and whether the Taliban can cut off from extremist forces are all "answers" that the Taliban, which has a "bad record", urgently needs to complete.
After the Taliban entered the capital Kabul, although the city did not fall into large-scale chaos, the panic still did not dissipate, as evidenced by the large number of people flocking to Karzai International Airport on the 15th to prepare to flee. On the 16th, the international airport had to announce the closure of all commercial flights.
In addition, Afghanistan's long-term poverty and weakness and years of war have led to extremely high unemployment and poverty and the threat of COVID-19. Van Hung Da pointed out that these problems will not disappear because the Taliban are in power, but only because Afghanistan is extremely dependent on external aid.
The outside world noted that in the early morning of the 16th, Ataliban leader Baradal delivered a video speech in which he warned the Taliban who won the war to "be humble in front of the Allah, and the moment of testing has just begun." In his view, how to effectively govern the country, solve the problems faced by the Afghan people and meet their aspirations is the real test.
Fan Hongda pointed out that how the Taliban can win the trust of the people through practical measures and win the ultimate support will be the basic problem of survival that he will have to solve.
On the afternoon of the 16th Beijing time, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said in response to issues related to the situation in Afghanistan that China respects the wishes and choices of the Afghan people.
Hua Chunying mentioned that the Chinese side took note of the statements made yesterday by the Atta side on "negotiating the establishment of an open and inclusive Islamic government and taking responsible actions to ensure the safety of Afghan citizens and foreign missions in Afghanistan." Hua Chunying stressed that China hopes that these statements will be implemented to ensure a smooth transition of the situation in Afghanistan, curb all kinds of terrorist and criminal acts, and enable the Afghan people to stay away from war and rebuild a better homeland.
How many more hurdles will the Taliban have to pass to gain international recognition?
In Li Shaoxian's view, how to break through the isolated situation of diplomacy after seizing power and how to win the recognition of the international community, especially from neighboring countries and relevant countries, can be described as the top priority of the Taliban.
It is reported that the UNITED Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting on the morning of the 16th local time to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. At that time, whether the United Nations will recognize the Taliban's full takeover of the Afghan government will be the focus of attention. In response, the New York Times pointed out that some UN member states have been involved in condemning the Taliban's "violent activities", so the relevant issues may be controversial.
At present, Russia, britain and other statements do not recognize the status of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and British Prime Minister Boris even called for not to recognize any new government "prematurely" without an agreement.
Pakistan, which is close to Afghanistan, said it was on the same footing with the international community in the ceremony of seeking a political solution to the Afghan issue. Qatar, for its part, called on the Afghan government to make peaceful concessions of power with the Taliban.
For the situation in Afghanistan, US President Biden, who is at the eye of the storm of public opinion, has not yet made a public statement. But the New York Times reported that if the Taliban don't recognize the fundamental rights of Afghans, then the United States will consider sanctions.
Fan Hongda pointed out that although the Taliban declared its victory, the international community has not yet given him a positive response. The last time the Taliban came to power, it was recognized by only 3 countries. Political power, which is widely rejected by the international community, is certainly unlikely to succeed, and the Taliban, who have suffered a bitter failure in governing, have clearly understood this truth.
Recently, afghan Taliban diplomatic representatives and senior officials have repeatedly said that they will learn from the experience of governing before 2001 and adopt a more open and enlightened domestic and foreign policy.
In this regard, Li Shaoxian pointed out that we should "listen to his words and watch his deeds." Li Shaoxian also noticed that the Taliban are "not what they used to be." In recent years, atta's permanent diplomatic mission to Qatar has visited Iran, Russia, China and other countries for communication, and its senior officials in Doha have also shown a pragmatic and moderate side of the Taliban, which has become a "window" for the international community to observe the Taliban.
Van Hung da also believes that if the Taliban hope to go further in Afghanistan, they must not challenge their neighbors on sensitive issues.
Taliban leader Baradal led a delegation to visit China
The outside world has noticed that on July 28, when Baradal led a high-level delegation from Attalee to China, he publicly announced that he would not allow Afghanistan to become a venue for international struggle and promised that Ata would never allow any force to use Afghan territory to do anything harmful to China. In Fan Hongda's view, Baradal's statement is a wise move.
However, for the current Taliban, coming up with a practical and feasible governance platform that can be recognized by all parties as soon as possible is the only way to obtain the "certification and stamp" of the international community. Otherwise, it would be useless to say anything.
(Look at the news Knows: reporter Li Yao Intern Editor: Pi Siyu)