Straight news: Taiwan's official documents unexpectedly exposed the US side going to Taiwan to assist in the test launch of the "Patriot-3" anti-missile system. Mr. Wu, what do you think about this?
Special Commentator Wu Jian: This reminds me of a news item in the US military media "Star-Spangled Banner", that is, at the end of this month, the US Army is also going to carry out anti-missile in Hawaii, and the protagonist is precisely "Love-3", and Clark, a scholar at the Hudson Institute of the United States, also deliberately emphasized that the US military's open use of "Love-3" is to provide confidence for a "one-island chain partner" like Taiwan. Nowadays, Taiwan has also followed the trend of the news of the "love-3 cooperation" between the United States and Taiwan, which undoubtedly makes people suspicious.
For this "news coincidence", I mainly share two perspectives with you, one is what does "Love-3" mean to Taiwan? Second, what confidence has the assistance of the United States brought to Taiwan? First of all, Taiwan has no "Love-3", of course, "Love-3" is the world's most actual combat anti-missile system, in 2004 Chen Shui-bian proposed to buy 6 companies of "Love-3" after coming to power for the second time, but due to the blue-green confrontation on the island, it was delayed until 2007 to approve, the current configuration is, two companies in the suburbs of Taipei xindian and Nangang, one in Taitung, three in Tainan.
From a military point of view, the total number of "Ai-3" in Taiwan's inventory is only 440 pieces, with a unit price of 4 million US dollars, according to the island's assessment, the price is far greater than that of the mainland, even if it is a high-end "Dongfeng" short-range missile, as for the LONG-range fire widely installed by the Platon Army, it is even more "unequal exchange." Considering that the standard procedure for anti-missiles is two "Ai-3" interception of one missile, the cost consumption rate is obviously beneficial to the attacking party, especially Taiwan itself said that the PLA has a crushing number of missiles, and Taiwan only relies on 400 "Ai-3" to fight, which is undoubtedly funny. But why should Taiwan buy it? Because according to the Taiwan military's battlefield model, due to the limited theater, taking into account the space restrictions launched by the PLA, and taking into account multiple rounds of firepower strikes, the first strike often launches only a fraction of the missile inventory, and the first wave of missile attacks that Taiwan has experienced may be 200 missile attacks, which is roughly the total number of "Ai-3" can be stopped. After the first round of confrontation, the Taiwan military has already maneuvered, and the officials' errands have also run out, and as for the mainland's missiles, it is not the concern of Taiwan's military and political top brass.
It is precisely because they have seen through the essence of the Taiwan authorities' purchase of US troops that they are "seeking independence by force, so the people of Taiwan have been opposed to the "Kaizi arms purchase" for many years and opposed the deployment of the "Love-3" around their homes. It is precisely because of this that when the US and Taiwan media alternately boasted of "loving Taiwan and supporting Taiwan", only Taiwan netizens came out to "be tough" and "the United States wants to turn Taiwan into a battlefield." I will further explain that whether the US military fights the "Love-3" itself or comes to help Taiwan fight the "Love-3," it is not "cheering up" Taiwan, but rather "discouraged." It should be known that the deployment of the "Love-3" is actually part of the "Pacific Deterrence Plan" of the US Indo-Pacific Command, and the key point is to focus on providing protection for the troops and US military bases in the Pacific area of responsibility that are vulnerable to the missile threat of "great power opponents", which shows that the US military is more aware of the fact that when playing with a strong opponent such as China, it can no longer be superstitious about always being able to "attack freely", without having to consider the "nursing home", and from the perspective of the "one island chain" situation in the Western Pacific, China's geostrategic advantage is beyond doubt. Moreover, the resources and even strategic determination that can be invested in safeguarding national unity are far from being comparable to those of the United States. It can be said that the hook-up of the United States and Taiwan with "Love-3" as the medium is not so much "showing muscles" as "exposing the horse's feet". For this point, I very much hope that the Taiwan compatriots will "recognize clearly and see through it."
Straight news: US military assets are increasingly "infected" taiwan, from the so-called US "advisor brigade" training the Taiwan military that was previously exposed, to the US senator taking a US military plane to Taipei Songshan on June 6. How do you see these "little tricks"?
Special Commentator Wu Jian: The situation is very clear: As a tool for implementing Washington's policy, the US military is also full of "two sides" in its China policy; on the one hand, for the sake of the core interests of the United States and regional stability, it must maintain communication and exchanges with the Platon Army; on the other hand, in order to embody US hegemony and play enough "Taiwan card" for the administration, it must also make some small moves in Taiwan, from the so-called "freedom of navigation" to the involvement of Taiwan. But they are also skilled "political balancers", please look carefully, the exposed US "consultant brigade" in Taiwan, the scientific name is the security cooperation brigade (SFAB) established in 2018, but the scale of going to Taiwan is obviously not a large-scale reorganization of more than 800 people, it is likely to be just a senior advisory group, according to the establishment, it should be about 24 to 48 people, just formed 2-4 squads, mainly to help establish the so-called "partner security capabilities", engaged in six major tasks such as organization, training, equipment, reconstruction, suggestions, and evaluations. To put it bluntly, they are putting an end to the idea of "asking the US military to do it" in Taiwan and demanding that "the Taiwan military do it itself."
At the same time, security cooperation brigades often have a "stealth task," that is, once there is a "problem," priority is given to ensuring the transfer of U.S. institutions, personnel, and even confidential documents in Taiwan. As for the C-17 transport plane that sent US senators to Taiwan, it shows even more the "poisonousness" of the US military, that is, they use their "extraterritorial jurisdiction" in south Korea to deliberately depart from Osan, the US military base in the ROK, to go to Taiwan, highlighting the "strategic flexibility" of the US military stationed in the ROK, forcing the ROK to "take sides" and join the camp of strategic competition with China.
But what I want to emphasize more is that whether the US military is explicitly or implicitly assisting the Taiwan military, one thing is certain, they are just using Taiwan to slow down the mainland's development, and they have long realized that the situation of cross-strait division and division cannot be permanent, and even the long-term situation is becoming more and more elusive. The general objective trend is inviolable, and the United States also knows how to conform to the general trend, including taking a rational stand on the Taiwan issue.
In the long run, China and the United States will establish a relatively stable new relationship structure, the basic characteristics of which are just like the Anchorage dialogue reflected, we must respect each other's core interests, do not fight wars, do not "decouple", and do not force the world to "choose sides". Any one of these articles is unfavorable to the Taiwan authorities who advocate "seeking independence"! I believe in this, the land left by the ancestors, we will certainly not lose an inch, friends on the other side of the ocean, please accept this realistically and sincerely.
Author: Wu Jian, Special Commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News.