Update from the National Climate Center
Since July this year
The Equatorial Middle East Pacific SST continues to decline
It is expected to enter La Niña status in October
And formed once in winter
Weak to moderate intensity La Niña events
Given the fall and winter of 2020-2021
There has been the La Niña incident
2021 will be the "Year of the Double La Niña"
In most of the La Niña incident
Reach the peak of winter
Affects cold air activity in our country
More frequently than usual
And the strength is strong
Temperatures in most parts of central and eastern China
The probability of being lower than the same period of the year is greater
According to forecasts
This winter, the temperature in the north and other areas is lower than that of the same period of the year
Extreme weather can occur
At present, there are several streams of cold air in succession
Let the temperature in many places in the north set a record
A new low since the second half of the year
Some netizens described it as "one night into autumn" or even "into winter"
so
What la Niña?
Will it be cold this winter?
Let's take a look at ↓↓↓
Will the temperature in our country be low this winter?
Through the analysis of 15 La Niña events in history since 1951, it is found that there are 10 La Niña years in China's winter temperature is low, and 5 La Niña years in China's winter temperature is high. That is to say, not every La Niña year's winter average temperature is low; after the La Niña event, the probability of winter coldness in China is indeed greater, about twice the probability of warmness.
In addition, it should be noted that cold temperature does not equal cold winter. "Cold" and "warm" are only compared to the average situation, while "cold winter" and "warm winter" are different and have strict standards.
According to the national standard of "Warm Winter Grade" formulated by the National Climate Center and officially promulgated in 2008 and the "Cold Winter Grade" national standard released in May 2017. The basic factor for judging cold and warm winter is the average temperature of the three months of winter (December to February of the following year), which is spatially divided into three levels: single station, regional and national.
The weather is getting colder
Friends must pay attention to keep warm
Source: Popular Science China