Water Skin: "Talking about stocks and talking about gold" can only go with the flow

Water skin/text

When there is no northbound funding, it always feels that the market is missing something.

Today, the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen has shrunk to 860.83 billion, which is basically a waist cut compared with the previous peak. The volume of the Shanghai Composite Index has shrunk particularly badly, at the previous high point of 842.5 billion, today there is only 377.52 billion, in other words, it has shrunk by more than 460 billion yuan. The same is true of the Shenzhen Index, which peaked at 870 billion yuan in the early days, and today there are only 483.31 billion, which is 400 billion less.

This is true of both markets, and it is also true of individual stocks.

Because today's volume concentration is less in the main indicator stocks. For example, Ping An of China is the leader of insurance stocks; China Merchants Bank is the leader of bank stocks, CITIC Securities is the leader of securities stocks; and Vanke is the leader of real estate stocks. Comparing the trading volume of these two days, you will find that compared with three days ago, the trading volume of these leading stocks is almost all waist cut. In other words, the concentrated contraction of trading volume is actually on the indicator stocks of the Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Of course, northbound funds can only trade these stocks, and these stocks are all weighted index stocks. That is to say, northbound funds do not participate in transactions, which actually has a considerable impact on market activity. The role of northbound funds, as well as the amplification effect and catfish effect, cannot be ignored more and more.

Under normal circumstances, the northbound capital turnover is about 100 billion to 120 billion, but the funds that drive related institutional investors are probably more than this number. In the past two days, the northbound funds have been suspended, and the trading volume of A shares has been greatly affected, and the most important thing is that the entire index has suddenly lost its sense of direction. Today's index fluctuations are actually not large, whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index, or the Shenzhen Component Index is floating up and down around yesterday's closing price. The last two cities did not fall much, the Shanghai Composite fell by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell a little smaller by only 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index was basically not alarmed, although it was a red disk, but the increase did not even exceed 0.2%.

Basically the index is like duckweed today, a bit of a sense of going with the flow, there is no sense of direction, mainly because the northbound funds in the early stage of these more active sectors suddenly have no continuation of the force. Whether it is the so-called "medicine and drinking" sector, or the relatively strong financial stocks in the early stage of the "old three fools", today is the adjustment of the situation. The "coal flying color dance" plate has diverged today, and coal is in a state of adjustment, but non-ferrous is relatively strong.

As we all know, the colored family cannot support the entire index. Therefore, the absence of northbound funds directly led to the market falling into a crossroads and did not know where to go. This is related to the dominance of northbound capital transaction volume in recent years, the right to speak is getting stronger and stronger, and it also has a lot to do with domestic institutions voluntarily giving up pricing power.

Now the domestic institutions have basically become large retail, and the short-term pursuit of price differences is also more than that of retail investors. Therefore, institutions have lost the dominance of pricing, which directly leads to the lack of northbound funds, whether it is a public fund or a private fund, there is no sense of direction.

Obviously, this situation itself also shows the interconnection of the Chinese market and the international market, on the other hand, it also shows the dominant force of institutional investors. Whether it is value investment or price speculation, it is a good chanting of foreign monks. The key is that the public and private placements in the mainland have given up their pricing power, given up their dominance, and given up their home field.

One sentence comment: Going with the flow can only be going with the flow