The new rules have depressed the premium rate, but they cannot suppress the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to get land, 30 cases of land, 22 cases reached the maximum price
On May 10, the Beijing land auction was broadcast live, photo / Chen Jiayao
Wen | Caijing reporter Chen Jiayao and Wang Bo
Editor| Wang Bo
Every time the host shouted out a new round of quotations, there were housing enterprises that raised their cards in response, and at the auction of the most popular plots in Haidian and Chaoyang Districts, the cards were continuously raised, and the battle situation of increasing the number of layers was also staged.
On May 10, at 9:40 a.m., Beijing began filming for the first time to concentrate on the supply of residential land. Vanke, Jinmao, Poly, Zhonghai and other leading real estate enterprises all came to the scene and began to tear up.
This is the first time that China's land supply has been implemented in Beijing after bidding farewell to irregular and quantitative bidding, auction and listing.
In order to prevent housing enterprises from blindly raising their cards and speculating in high house prices, the beijing centralized land supply still set the highest auction price and limited the premium space.
According to the data of a number of institutions, the premium rate of Beijing's centralized land supply transaction is 6.4%. It is the lowest point in the past five years, which is 7.4 percentage points lower than the transaction premium rate for the whole year of 2020.
Although the new rules have depressed the premium rate, they have not suppressed the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to get land.
The centralized supply of all land listed a total of 30 cases, construction land area of 1.68 million square meters, the starting price of 103.6 billion yuan. As of the end of the land auction on May 11, a total of 22 land parcels reached the maximum price, with a total transaction price of 110.9 billion yuan.
Judging from the transaction results, the consortium and the head state-owned housing enterprises still have a greater advantage. Excellence, MCC Land and Gemdale Group occupied the top three of the transaction list with transaction amounts of 11.3 billion, 8.5 billion and 6.2 billion yuan respectively (the joint land acquisition situation is calculated according to the average distribution of each housing enterprise).
Gemdale Group + China Resources Land + Poly Development Group, which participated in 20 auctions in the form of a consortium, won a land parcel in Chaoyang Cui Gezhuang for a transaction price of 5.1 billion yuan. Head real estate enterprises Such as Country Garden and Sunac China have also gained.
But not all plots are popular. Four plots of land in remote areas such as Daxing, Mentougou and Huairou were all sold at the reserve price.
Behind the land auction results of the two heavens of ice and fire is the careful trial and error of housing enterprises on the new rules of "two concentrations" of land supply.
A leading real estate company involved in the land auction believes that under the new deal, it is hotter and colder, because nearly one-third of the land is released, and the company can see the value of the land more clearly.
Three rounds of screening, three criteria
The head housing enterprises gathered at the auction site, not only because the land in Beijing is expensive, and the purchase is earned, but also because the operation standards and auction process in Beijing have a pointing significance to the national market.
In late February this year, a document entitled "Land Market Dynamic Monitoring and Supervision System" circulated online.
The document requires 22 key cities to achieve "two concentrations" of residential land, that is, in 2021, residential land announcements cannot be issued more than 3 times, centralized release of transfer announcements, and centralized organization of transfer activities.
This is another policy that has shaken the real estate industry after the "three red lines" in August last year, and cannot be traced back, but has been implemented.
This centralized land supply in Beijing is the debut after the New Deal.
At the auction site, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources set a relatively low premium rate for popular plots, which led to more housing companies being able to enter the last two rounds of bidding, but this does not mean that the difficulty of bidding is reduced.
The Beijing land auction basically adopts the three-stage bidding rule, the first stage is simply to fight for financial strength, when the investment developer's quotation reaches the maximum limit, it will automatically enter the second stage of bidding.
The second stage mainly examines the concession space of housing enterprises to the government, that is, the government holds a preset share of commercial residential property rights or allocates public rental housing area, and after these two indicators also reach the upper limit, bidders enter the third stage of bidding.
The final stage examines the bidder's ability to build high-standard commercial housing, and the submission plan includes green buildings, prefabricated buildings, ultra-low energy consumption buildings, etc., and the jury determines the bidders according to each score.
Overall, Beijing's bidding rules are more complicated than the Guangzhou land auction that ended in April, and the second phase of Guangzhou only bids for the area of public rental housing, not involving the bidding for the government's share, and the third stage is to determine the bidders through the lottery.
More than 70% of land has reached the maximum price limit
Although the threshold for centralized soil auctions in Beijing is higher, it has not affected the enthusiasm of buyers. In this land auction, 22 of the 30 cases of land quickly reached the maximum price, accounting for 73.3%.
There are 12 land premium rates in this auction, the upper limit of the premium rate is in the range of 2%-6%, and the 11 quotations before the auction have reached the maximum limit price, directly entering the second stage, bidding for the government's share or allocating the area of public rental housing.
After the official start of the auction on the spot, 11 more parcels reached the maximum price. In the end, 12 of the 22 cases of land that reached the price ceiling were completed in the second stage, 6 cases reached the second stage ceiling and entered the third stage, and 4 cases directly entered the third stage according to the bidding rules specified in the bidding documents.
Of the 6 cases of land that reached the upper limit of the second stage, 3 were located in Chaoyang Wangsiying, 1 was located in Chaoyang Cui Gezhuang, and 2 were located in Haidian Shu Village. These plots are chased by the topographers due to their advantages such as transportation and geographical location.
Chaoyang Wangsiying's three parcels of land close to Metro Line 7 are the only plots in Chaoyang District located within the fifth ring road in this auction, attracting more than 20 real estate companies such as China Merchants, MCC Real Estate and Gemdale to participate in the auction.
Housing enterprises seem to be inevitable for these 3 parcels of land, China Merchants Shekou + Minmetals Real Estate + Beijing Urban Construction Consortium, OCT, MCC Real Estate and other bidders have repeatedly raised their cards.
When the host shouted out a round of new offers, some companies immediately raised their cards to bid, and MCC Real Estate once raised its cards for two consecutive times.
After two rounds of bidding, the area of public rental housing reported hits the upper limit and enters the third round of bidding, and bidders must submit a high-standard commercial housing construction plan on the 10th working day after the on-site bidding.
Compared with Wang Siying, the three cases of land in Cui Gezhuang, which is also in Chaoyang District, are slightly less hot, mainly because of its geographical location out of the East Fifth Ring Road, close to the Airport Expressway and Crab Island Resort.
However, after Gemdale + China Resources + Poly Consortium and China Merchants + Urban Construction Consortium acquired two pieces of land with 5.094 billion yuan + 22,000 square meters of public rental housing and 4.22 billion yuan + 20,000 square meters of public rental housing respectively, the last piece of land with the lowest floor price in Wang Siying triggered a rush to buy.
Finally, after the most rounds on the first day of the auction , 46 bids , the buyer entered the stage of submission of a high-standard construction plan.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, pointed out that the residential planning construction area of Chaoyang land plots accounted for 25% of the land supply, and in previous years, the proportion was generally about 10%, so the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to obtain land was very high.
The battle for the fourth camp of Wang has just ended, and the housing enterprises have turned to the battlefield of Haidian Tree Village.
Two parcels of land in Haidingshu Village, close to Metro Line 13 and Line 16, are located in the Shangdi School District of Haidian's high-quality school district, triggering the last wave of rush purchases on the first day of the auction. Both plots reached the bid stage 2 cap within 10 minutes.
Before the government's share of the last piece of land reached the upper limit, almost all the bidders present raised their cards at the same time.
In addition to the resident housing enterprises, there are also some new faces at the scene of the beijing soil auction.
Fantasia, Agile Group, Yuexiu, Excellence and other foreign housing enterprises also came to "enter Beijing to catch the examination". The excellence of the first time to enter Beijing even climbed to the top of the current transaction list, winning 4 cases of land, with a total transaction amount of about 11.3 billion yuan (the joint land acquisition situation is calculated according to the average distribution of each housing enterprise).
Zhang Yifei, chief researcher of Roland Berger's real estate industry, believes that compared with the irregular public bidding, auction and listing in the past, the information of the land market under the centralized land supply model is more open and transparent, which brings opportunities for housing enterprises to enter new cities to open up the market.
New gameplay under new rules
Although the mainstream housing enterprises in Beijing concentrated land supply site confrontation fierce, but they are cautious about the new rules.
A Country Garden executive said that the centralized supply of land has raised the threshold for the participation of housing enterprises, changed the way housing enterprises plan funds, required housing enterprises to prepare a large amount of funds at the same time, and the land department has more homework to do before bidding, and the pressure is greater.
"Finance" reporter learned that to participate in the bidding of all land plots in Beijing, housing enterprises need to prepare a deposit of about 20 billion yuan, which is not a small amount for any housing enterprise.
According to the data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, the average net profit of China's top 100 real estate enterprises in 2020 is only 7.15 billion yuan.
In order to alleviate the financial pressure, in this round of Beijing centralized land supply auction, most of the housing enterprises formed a consortium to obtain land.
There are a total of 248 applicants in this soil auction, of which 88 are consortiums, accounting for more than one-third.
Of the 15 parcels of land that have been sold in the auction stage, 7 have been acquired by consortium bidders. There are still 10 land auction results that have entered the selection stage of high-standard schemes.
On May 8, representatives of housing enterprises submitted materials related to on-site bidding, photo / Chen Jiayao
Gemdale + China Resources + Poly combination is one of the most eye-catching consortium three brothers. They participated in the live bidding of almost all plots in the form of a consortium.
Zhang Yifei predicted that in popular cities, the situation of housing enterprises taking land in the form of consortiums may be more and more. Many housing enterprises are optimistic about the financing advantages of the consortium and will consider joint land acquisition in the future.
However, the above-mentioned Country Garden executives believe that not all housing enterprises are suitable for the consortium to get land, and the consortium is convenient to take the land in the early stage and more trouble in the later stage. If the synergy effect in the construction stage is poor, it is easy to cause quality problems and delays in the construction period.
Gemdale + China Resources + Poly Investment Department staff told the "Finance" reporter that their three companies have cooperated for many years and are relatively familiar, so they can quickly enter the development stage after obtaining land.
Under the package cooperation model, the three companies are bound to the auction of most land plots, so there is no need to find different partners for each piece of land, which reduces the time cost of negotiation.
Under the "two concentrations" policy, in addition to the ability of capital management, the ability of housing enterprises to study and judge is also being tested.
The relevant personnel of housing enterprises revealed to the "Finance" reporter that under the "two concentrations" model, the work that was used for a long time should now be completed centrally, and the work pressure has doubled. In order to control risks and improve efficiency and ensure that funds are used efficiently, they are standardizing the research process to cope with the steep increase in workload.
The profits of housing enterprises are strictly controlled
"Caijing" reporter learned that in addition to the premium limit for the centralized land supply, the bidder also submitted a letter of commitment to the price of the house, promising that the future price of the house would not be higher than the guidance price given by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission.
This means that in order to control the excessive rise in house prices, the regulatory layer has added a double shackle to the profit space of housing enterprises. Prevent housing enterprises from taking land at high prices, taking the gray area, secretly increasing prices, and selling houses higher than the government's guidance price.
Zhang Yifei pointed out that under the "two concentrations" model, the number of land supply in various regions is limited every year, and the fault tolerance space of housing enterprises is shrinking.
A number of housing executives said in the interview that in the future, we must start from the overall strategy of the enterprise, we cannot have a hot brain, and we must pounce on the popular plots, and the plots with slight shortcomings will not participate in the bidding.
Fang Yinliang, global senior partner of Roland Berger, believes that the current homogenization of Chinese real estate enterprises is still very serious, and product competitiveness is too dependent on the regional attributes of the land itself.
He suggested that in the case of large housing enterprises focusing on popular plots, small and medium-sized housing enterprises can build a differentiated product system. Regardless of the size, the future development model of housing enterprises should adapt to the strategic planning of enterprises and complete the transformation from resource dividends to management dividends.